Suga’s Snap Election Decision

On September 16, Suga Yoshihide, who served as chief cabinet secretary throughout the Abe Shinzo administration, became the 99th prime minister of Japan. Within a week of the inauguration of his cabinet, rumors about a possible snap election for the House of Representatives (Japan’s lower house) were already swirling. (The next election is not due until October 2021.) The speculation was further fueled when Kono Taro, Abe’s last defense minister, whom Suga appointed to be the minister in charge of administrative reform, referred to the possibility of a snap election as early as October or November this year in a public webinar in Washington, D.C.

From the perspective of political operators, there are a few good reasons to hold a House of Representatives election early. First and foremost, Suga’s public approval rating as the prime minister is very high — according to a poll conducted by several Japanese media organizations, his approval rating for this early in a term trails only former Prime Ministers Koizumi Junichiro and Hatoyama Yukio. Calling for an election while Suga’s approval rating is high would allow the ruling coalition to enter the election from a position of strength.

Furthermore, the opposition parties continue to be in disarray eight years after the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito ruling coalition returned to power. Even though two main opposition parties — the Constitutional Democratic Party and Democratic Party for the People — are going through the process of integration, at the moment the reunited Constitutional Democratic Party looks no different from the Democratic Party of Japan, which Japanese voters voted out in December 2012. It is neither an attractive nor a credible alternative to the incumbent ruling coalition in the eyes of the voters. In other words, if an election is called before the opposition parties have time to complete their merger and come up with a coherent strategy, it will further weaken an already feeble opposition.

In addition, it will be beneficial for Suga, who is currently seen as a caretaker leader whose longevity as the prime minister after serving out the rest of Abe’s remaining term is unknown. Having a lower house election win under his belt would enhance Suga’s position within the LDP. This is particularly important for Suga who, unlike most of his predecessors, does not belong to a faction within the party. Without a faction to back him up, the only way for Suga to retain his power is to sustain his public approval rating, which would keep the confidence of the LDP’s rank and file in him as the party leader.

In short, holding a lower house election makes sense both as a political tactic for the LDP and as a means for Suga personally to solidify his position.

At the same time, however, there are just as many, if not more, reasons for Suga not to call for an election. In his first press conference as the prime minister, Suga identified the effort to contain the spread of COVID-19 as his cabinet’s utmost priority for the short term. For instance, he mentioned that his government would work toward having a COVID-19 vaccine available to anyone who wants it in Japan in the next six months. Calling a snap election would most certainly disrupt this focus, undercutting his pledge as the prime minister to lead a government that “works for its people.”

Furthermore, Suga and his government continue to face a number of foreign policy challenges. Even though Suga and U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance in their first telephone conversation, Japan will have to enter negotiations to renew its Host Nation Support agreement with the United States later this fall. With the U.S. presidential election prospects far from clear, Japan needs to be prepared for the possibility that renewal negotiations will have to conclude under a second Trump administration, with Tokyo fully aware of Trump’s demand that U.S. allies, including Japan, should “pay more” to keep a U.S. military presence in their countries.

There are other pressing foreign policy issues as well. As strategic rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, Suga needs to balance even more carefully his country’s firm commitment to its alliance with the U.S. and the necessity to have a constructive relationship with China. Even though Suga has indicated that he is open to a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the prospect for such a meeting appears distant due to a continuing deadlock over the abduction issue. Japan-South Korea bilateral relations remain tense, with little prospect of warming anytime soon. In other words, calling a snap election can create an unnecessary distraction from the foreign policy challenges that Japan has at hand.

In a parliamentary democracy, gauging the opportune time for an election is not easy even under usual circumstances. Amid COVID-19, social distancing and other public health requirements further complicate the decision. As such, any decision to call for an election will require a rationale that Japanese voters find compelling. With the ruling coalition currently enjoying a convincing majority in both the lower and upper houses of the Diet, Suga and senior LDP leaders would be well advised to prioritize on the governing task at hand rather than scheming to further strengthen their political position.