China’s Climate Gambit

COP26, the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, was slated to be held in November 2020 in Glasgow, Scotland. But amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the anticipated meeting has been postponed until 2021. The gathering will, when it eventually meets, be significant as the first quinquennial gathering since the Paris climate accord was struck in 2015, allowing states to review and reevaluate their progress and commitments. And yet, in the absence of this year’s major summit, China has not pressed pause on moving forward with its own climate policy or its climate diplomacy.

At this year’s U.N. General Assembly (UNGA), Chinese President Xi Jinping was unequivocal about the need to do more to address climate change. “Humankind can no longer afford to ignore the repeated warnings of Nature and go down the beaten path of extracting resources without investing in conservation, pursuing development at the expense of protection, and exploiting resources without restoration,” Xi said. In his UNGA speech, Xi pledged to scale up China’s nationally determined contributions as part of the Paris Agreement with the intention of reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. The pledge follows other Chinese efforts to combat climate issues and to make the country a leader in sustainability, including its new urban waste sorting schemes and a January ban on single-use plastics.

Beijing’s UNGA announcement came as a surprise as Chinese leaders appear to have taken the decision unilaterally and without demanding reciprocity from others. The move also came ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the results of which will no doubt shape the trajectory of U.S.-China competition and cooperation. If China successfully meets its newly articulated targets, the impact would be remarkable, delivering a shock to climate forecasts by lowering projected temperature rises by 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius.

But China has not always sought to be a leader when it comes to climate change. In fact, at COP15 in Copenhagen more than a decade ago, China was blamed for holding up more binding deals, only signing onto watered-down commitments that wouldn’t jeopardize its then soaring growth.

China’s latest shift into a leadership role on climate is likely driven by a combination of factors, as much domestic as international. On the domestic front, much of China’s climate advocacy is tied to finding new drivers of economic growth and sustainable development. China had already turned to technological advancements and innovation, most notably in renewable energy, but this effort will be all the more important as the global economy sets out on the path to recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The country is already a leader in producing renewables, including wind and solar energy, as well as a pioneer in investing in renewables and green financing at home and abroad.

Beyond the implications for the economy, there are also human costs at stake for China in the face of climate change. The country is no stranger to devastating extreme climate events (floods, droughts, storms) that can amount to tens of billions of U.S. dollars in damage and casualties. For example, the recent spate of heavy rain and flooding along the Yangtze River claimed the lives of more than 200 people and the damage along central and eastern China surpassed $30 billion.

While the domestic implications of climate change are likely at the forefront in the minds of  Chinese leaders, combating climate change remains a positive and promising policy area for Beijing’s foreign policy as well. For example, despite a general souring of Sino-European ties this year, dedication to tackling climate change may prove to be the ties that bind, especially in light of American ambivalence to put the transnational issue ahead of standard national security concerns.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accords and the U.S. president’s own skepticism regarding the role of humans vis-a-vis climate change – including calling climate change a “hoax” – handed China an opportunity to play a larger part in shaping multilateral climate initiatives. Trump’s repeated rollbacks of domestic environmental regulations have further damaged Washington’s credibility on climate issues.

Beijing’s recent carbon neutral ambition and statements also expanded two-way tensions between Beijing and Washington, adding climate to a growing list of thorny subjects, from trade to Hong Kong to 5G. But as Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Yanzhong Huang writes, “when it comes to environmental protection, decoupling is a lose-lose proposition for both countries.”

Whereas tensions between Beijing and Washington on the environment previously stemmed from negotiation stumbling blocks behind closed doors, the repercussions of these latest tensions are playing out very publicly. Trump used his own UNGA speech to chide China: “Those who attack America’s exceptional environmental record while ignoring China’s rampant pollution are not interested in the environment. They only want to punish America, and I will not stand for it.” Then in October, Beijing responded in kind, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issuing a fact sheet on the United States’ contributions to environmental damage that was described as a “diatribe” by the Washington Post. The statement said that the United States “is widely viewed as a consensus-breaker and a troublemaker.”

Still, China’s new timetables and carbon neutrality pledge warrant caution. China remains the world’s top emitter of carbon dioxide, accounting for more than 27 percent of the global share, exceeding the emissions of the United States and India combined. Among the greatest barriers to China’s latest climate commitment is the country’s heavy dependence on coal to fuel its economy. The country continues to account for half of the world’s coal production and consumption.

In the face of numerous economic hurdles, Beijing may look to reap rewards from its multilateral climate leadership to stimulate change on the homefront. Perhaps the appointment of Zhao Yingmin as China’s top climate negotiator at the end of 2019 will inject new life into multilateral efforts. Zhao, a vice minister of ecology and environment, has considerable prior experience tackling pollution, including his time heading China’s pollution prevention department.

Xi’s goal of carbon neutrality is a first and important move, signaling not only China’s treatment of climate change as a serious issue but a willingness to model leadership. Still, there is no denying the geostrategic value that climate diplomacy plays now and will continue to play as Beijing pushes for a bigger voice in global governance.