Taiwan’s Climate Change Conundrum

When the United States completed its withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement in November, it became the only one of the 197 U.N. member states on the outside looking in. All other members have acceded to the Paris Agreement (although a handful never actually ratified it). But the United States is not completely alone on the outside of the global climate pact. Taiwan never signed the Paris Agreement either, for the simple reason that it wasn’t invited to.

Taiwan is not part of the United Nations, having lost its seat to the People’s Republic of China in 1971. That precludes Taiwan’s participation in all U.N.-affiliated bodies, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Because of strident objections from Beijing, Taipei is not even permitted observer status, like the Vatican has.

Instead, each year Taiwan sends a delegation to take part in events and meetings on the sidelines of the annual U.N. climate change conference (formally known as the “Conference of Parties” or COP). Last year, around COP25 in Madrid, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spearheaded an online campaign to raise awareness about the country’s exclusion from global climate change talks, including a short film about Taiwan’s foray into wind power and an advertising campaign in Madrid.

“[D]ue to political constraints, Taiwan can only attend the COP sessions as an NGO observer. Being a responsible stakeholder in the international community, Taiwan will never let its exclusion become an excuse for not partaking in global efforts to combat climate change,” MOFA said in a statement. 

The ministry took to Twitter with a pithier version of that sentiment: “Yes! #TaiwanCanHelp combat #ClimateChange.”

Let’s take a closer look at exactly how Taiwan is contributing to the global effort to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, as pledged in the Paris Agreement.

Taiwan released 258.72 million metric tons of carbon emissions in 2019 (down 3.15 percent from 2018). That makes Taiwan the world’s 22nd largest carbon emitter – for comparison, China and the United States (the world’s top two emitters) released 9.43 billion and 5.15 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2018, respectively. In terms of per capita emissions, Taiwan (at 11 metric tons per person) has higher levels than China (7.7 metric tons per capita) and Japan (10.4) but less than the United States (15.7) and South Korea (13.2).

While Taiwan’s emissions may be in the middle of the pack for developed countries, they have been stubbornly consistent. Taiwan’s emissions grew – albeit by a less than a percent – from 2005 to 2017, when they reached a peak. By comparison, the European Union and United States reduced their emissions over that same time frame, the EU by about 20 percent and the U.S. by 14 percent. Taiwan, admittedly, fares much better on this count than developed countries closer to home. South Korea saw its emissions rise 43 percent from 2005 to 2018 and Singapore saw a 35 percent increase.

Still, climate activists have sounded the alarm on Taiwan’s sluggish climate performance. The 2020 Climate Change Performance Index, issued by Germanwatch, ranked Taiwan (demarked as “Chinese Taipei”) 59th out of 61 countries analyzed, a drop of two places from the year before. Interestingly, though, Taiwan was given slightly higher marks on its climate policy, placing 40th on that specific area.

Even though Taiwan was shut out of the Paris Agreement, it followed the forms of compliance, including issuing its own Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to decrease emissions. The INDC, however, did not promise any new cuts, but repeated the goals set in the 2015 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act. Under the act, Taiwan is supposed to cut emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2050. That target looks much less ambitious in the wake of Japan and South Korea’s recently declared goals to get to net-zero emissions by that same year (and China’s commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2060). In fact, Taiwan, along with Australia, is one of the few developed countries not to have announced a goal for reaching “carbon neutral” status (assuming President-elect Joe Biden in the United States makes his plan official policy upon inauguration).

The lack of ambitious goals may be a direct result of Taiwan being left out of UNFCCC, and thus insulated from international pressure to do more. “[B]eing a part of international discussions forces the government and different departments to think deeper about climate change,” Yeh Junrong, a professor of environmental law at National Taiwan University told The Diplomat in 2015, in the run-up to the Paris Agreement’s signing.

But the international angle isn’t the whole story. Taiwan has struggled to achieve even the modest goals that it has set for itself. In August Taiwan’s Environmental Protection Administration Minister Chang Tzi-Chin admitted that the country was having trouble meeting the goal of a 2 percent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by the end of 2020.

Meanwhile, Taiwan is supposed to supply 20 percent of its total energy mix from renewable sources by 2025, but, according to the 2020 Climate Change Performance Index, renewables currently make up just 1.9 percent of Taiwan’s total energy use. Despite a government emphasis on solar and wind power, Taiwan-based CommonWealth Magazine noted in August that “Taiwan’s renewables as a proportion of electricity production is still lower than both Japan and South Korea.” With the exceptions of Israel and Singapore, the magazine pointed out, “Taiwan actually has the lowest renewables mix among the advanced economies.” In 2018, despite talking up its commitment to renewable energy, the government actually approved an expansion to a coal-fired power plant (it was forced to shelve the plan soon afterward, amid public outcry).

Taiwan’s sluggish progress on emissions cuts is all the more puzzling given the outsized impact climate change stands to have on the island nation. Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau has reported heavier rainfall, stronger typhoons, and a longer dry season, mirroring patterns of flood and drought seen around the world.

The Climate Risk Index 2018, also from Germanwatch, found that Taiwan was among the 10 countries most negatively impacted by climate change in 2016, measured by the death toll and monetary cost of extreme weather events. Taiwan (again as “Chinese Taipei”) ranked number seven thanks to “an abnormally cold winter…[and] six intense typhoons in 2016.” Taiwan ranked 38th in terms of the cumulative negative impact of climate change from 1997 to 2016. (Taiwan was not included in the more recent Climate Risk Index publications, with a note saying that data was not available – perhaps a nod to Taiwan’s status on the outside of most global reporting mechanisms.)

As the clock ticks down on the end of Donald Trump’s presidency, the Biden administration is expected not only to rejoin the Paris Agreement, but to move forward with an even more aggressive plan to cut emissions. If Taiwan is serious about its verbal commitments to climate change and upholding global responsibilities, partnering with the United States on climate initiatives would be a good place to start. That would also bring some diplomatic accountability and government focus to Taipei’s emissions commitments – apparently something that is much needed.