Taiwan’s COVID-19 Triumph

Few imagined at its start that 2020 would be defined by a pandemic. Even fewer anticipated that Taiwan, by the end of 2020, would be one of the only places where life feels normal and is minimally impacted by COVID-19. Taiwan maintains some of the best COVID-19 statistics in the world, despite its constant marginalization on the world stage and lack of recognition for its de facto independent status. As of January 25, 2021, Taiwan has only recorded seven deaths from COVID-19 and enjoyed a 250-day streak with no domestic transmission of the virus. Even when the disease has spread domestically, Taiwan’s institutional response stopped more cases from emerging. Despite the global pandemic wreaking havoc on the world’s economy, Taiwan has managed to become one of the only economies in the world to grow in 2020 and is poised to continue to do so in 2021. 

How did Taiwan manage to make the best of 2020’s worst situation?

Turning Democratic Isolation Into an Advantage 

Two key antecedents set the stage for Taiwan’s COVID-19 success. The first and perhaps most fundamental key to Taiwan’s COVID-19 response was its robust institutions. Taiwan not only had the capacity to handle an epidemic, but it also had experience in doing so. The 2003 SARS epidemic, despite being 18 years ago, is still fresh in many Taiwanese minds, especially those who run its public health sector. Taiwan suffered 73 deaths during the SARS epidemic, the third-most deaths in the world behind Canada and China. In 2003, Taiwan’s health care system not only passed the SARS stress test, but also learned how to better handle itself in the future. 

Crucial to replicating that success was having the same person oversee the execution of Taiwan’s pandemic plan in both cases. Chen Chien-jen served as health minister during the SARS crisis and was finishing up a single term as vice president 17 years later, when COVID-19 hit. A Johns Hopkins-trained epidemiologist, Chen wrote the policy used for Taiwan’s initial COVID-19 response. Despite a relatively quiet vice presidency, Chen’s final six months in office cemented him as one of Taiwan’s political heroes, whose expertise was a significant factor in Taiwan’s smooth handling of the initial spread.

The second key that ultimately hastened Taiwan’s response was its historic exclusion from the World Health Organization. Taiwan, while previously granted limited observer status in the WHO under Kuomintang (KMT) administrations, has been summarily blocked from participating by China when the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in power. This was the case in 2003 during the SARS outbreak and Chen Shui-bian’s presidency, as it was and currently is under the Tsai administration. Taiwan’s exclusion from a critical international health organization like the WHO cuts off local health officials from coordinating and exchanging information on a government-to-government level, furthering Taiwan’s isolation. But the silver lining of Taiwan’s exclusion is the need to rely on itself; it neither needed nor could afford to wait for the WHO or other countries to act or give guidance. Taiwan began to plan for a pandemic the second it got wind of a new pneumonia coming out of Wuhan. Unfortunate self-reliance ultimately helped Taiwan respond far more punctually than any other country. 

Going Into Action

Once the speed of spread and severity of the illness were confirmed, Taiwan wasted no time establishing new protocols. First, Taiwan enacted strict border controls. Initially, Taiwan only blocked flights from nearby Chinese cities, but by the end of February 2020 the spread began to hasten and Taiwan subsequently further locked down its borders. By March, only Taiwanese citizens or those with residency were allowed back into Taiwan. 

Second, those who did enter Taiwan, regardless of if they were citizens or not, were required to quarantine for two weeks in approved quarantine hotels. Citizens were allowed to quarantine at home if they were properly isolated. Taiwan’s quarantine program served as a means of catching those who were infected with COVID-19 before they went out in public. The one case that managed to escape Taiwan’s system was a New Zeeland pilot who purposefully broke quarantine and lied to authorities about his whereabouts. 

Finally, Taiwan became a mask and alcohol manufacturing machine. In early January 2020, Taiwan was already making 1.9 million masks a day. Initial public panic arose when citizens realized there may not be enough masks for everyone to wear every day for the foreseeable future. In response, the government stepped in and had factories begin to mass produce masks and sanitation alcohol. By April it was making 15 million masks per day.

Besides Taiwan’s effective policy, a major part of its success is also derived from its good civil society. Taiwanese citizens took their government’s warnings seriously and, despite some minor inconveniences such as mandatory masks on public transportation or social distancing in crowded areas, Taiwanese went along with the government’s advice and regulations. To maintain transparency and encourage citizens to take the programs seriously, Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) gives daily press briefings about any new COVID-19 cases, where they came from, and what people can do to maintain safety. One highlight of the daily briefings by Chen Shi-chung, the CECC leader, included a day of solidarity when all CECC leaders wore pink face masks to encourage gender equality after a school-aged boy was bullied for wearing a pink mask. 

Finally, unlike in many democracies around the world, COVID masks and public health were never politicized, regardless of political party. Even the KMT, resentful of how Tsai’s COVID-19 response has made her a political rock star and incredibly popular in Taiwan, have neither argued against wearing masks in public nor encouraged people to question the CECC’s quarantine and social distancing programs. Beating COVID-19 is a bipartisan issue in Taiwan. 

Taiwan’s Mask Diplomacy

The low case rate and seemingly normal life enjoyed by those in Taiwan have not gone unnoticed in the international community. For the first time in decades, Taiwan began to pop up in media headlines as a COVID-19 success story: a positive, non-militarized framing Taiwan has rarely seen. The Taiwan government has tried its best to capitalize on the good publicity to further Taiwan’s normalization within the global order. “Mask Diplomacy” was a program started by the Taiwan government to send millions of masks abroad and resulted in dozens of countries making formal statements thanking Taiwan for their assistance. The online hashtag #TaiwanCanHelp had moments of virality over the last year as different countries around the world accepted Taiwan’s assistance. 

But despite its positive global reception, Taiwan still has not been allowed into the WHO. One early attempt in May of 2020 was hyped to potentially be the moment countries around the world broke away from their agreement with China to not endorse Taiwan’s participation during a WHO summit. Despite a seemingly record number of countries openly endorsing Taiwan’s participation, Taiwan at the last minute withdrew its own name. 

Regardless of the anti-climactic results, more and more countries continue to openly endorse Taiwan’s right to participate in the WHO, often citing its excellent response to the pandemic. It is likely that Taiwan will make another bid at WHO observer status in the future and, depending on the timing and circumstances, more countries are likely to endorse Taiwan’s participation than ever before. China, however, will likely continue campaigning strongly against Taiwan’s participation. Countries endorsing Taiwan seem to acknowledge China’s dissenting opinion while continuing their endorsement of Taiwan’s participation in the WHO anyway. This change in attitude is perhaps one of Tsai’s greatest COVID-19 victories. It will be a major victory for Tsai if Taiwan is ultimately successful at regaining observer status. It would reflect not just her own domestic success, but also how she has managed to create space for Taiwan internationally as an important player in responding to this global crisis. 

Tsai’s Domestic Victory 

It is no secret that the Tsai administration won important political points from civil society for its COVID-19 response. Tsai was already popular after her smashing victory against KMT presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu just weeks before the pandemic began, but her COVID-19 response gave her political capital and clout to propel her through the first year of her second term unscathed. She has, however, begun to cash in some of her political credit on the controversial U.S. pork import deal.

U.S. pork often contains ractopamine, a chemical that is widely considered unhealthy in Taiwan. The DPP opposed the KMT’s allowance of U.S. beef imports during Ma Ying-jeou’s time, also citing concerns over ractopamine. Tsai, however, is eager to pursue bilateral or multilateral trade deals with the United States and other (unofficial) allied countries, and it is well known that the U.S. has made pork imports its starting point. Without U.S. pork imports, there would not be a trade deal, and Tsai used her COVID-19 response points to make it happen. 

Following the pork announcement, Tsai’s popularity began to drop. In recent months, some members of the DPP, which was completely unified in 2020, began to break ranks and question Tsai’s decision on pork imports. With the opposition unwilling or unable to challenge her COVID-19 policy, the pork backlash means the KMT also finally has something tangible with which to attack Tsai. 

As 2022 midterm elections approach, it will be important to watch how much U.S. pork dominates debates versus the DPP’s good COVID-19 response policy. While no one will likely change their opinion of the COVID-19 policy, a good pandemic response will not be enough to prop up the DPP’s support for the next two years. More policy changes are needed in order to continue to win Taiwan’s public support, and unfortunately the U.S. pork policy change seems to be hurting the DPP more than helping. It is likely that, come 2022, more people will be talking about U.S. pork than the DPP’s COVID-19 response.

Can Tsai Maintain Normalcy?

As positive as Taiwan’s COVID-19 success story has been, Tsai now faces the challenge of maintaining Taiwan’s positive streak. This unfortunately has become difficult in the last month. Taiwan’s over 250-day streak with no domestic spread was ended by an airline pilot breaking quarantine and a Taiwanese doctor who was treating an inbound COVID-19 patient. Although these cases are being quickly managed and responded to, it is a wake-up call for many that Taiwan should not become too complacent and must remain vigilant. The small but growing number of domestic cases emerging from a new cluster will not hurt Tsai or her positive COVID-19 legacy, unless infections continue to spread. Although it is unlikely to spread widely, the new domestic cluster of COVID-19 cases growing in Taoyuan county has started a new wave of domestic worry. 

Furthering worries, Taiwan only recently announced that it is in talks with vaccine suppliers and plans to begin mass vaccination in March. Despite being the first place in the world to protect itself from COVID-19, Taiwan has acted relatively slowly in announcing how and when it will vaccinate its citizens. 

Maintaining Taiwan’s minimal exposure to COVID-19 remains a priority for 2021, and Tsai is likely to take every measure to ensure Taiwan’s COVID-19 legacy goes as untarnished as possible. However, this means Taiwan will take its time re-opening to the world. If Tsai decides that Taiwan needs to tighten its COVID-19 policy, it will lengthen the amount of time before Taiwan eventually opens its borders again. Since much of Taiwan’s new found legitimacy rests on its positive COVID-19 image, Tsai is likely to accept a longer shutdown time if it allows for continued domestic safety.  

Shortcomings aside, no one could have predicted Taiwan would be the one country to be in a stronger position post-pandemic than it was pre-COVID-19. It is remarkable that Taiwan’s democratic institutions and isolation from the global stage enhanced its decision-making abilities rather than hindered them. Taiwan is in strong form as 2021 begins, with a new post-pandemic era on the horizon. The administration change in the United States will also usher in a new era of potential possibilities, as many look hopefully to the Biden administration to maintain and further strengthen ties with Taiwan. Although Tsai cannot ride Taiwan’s COVID-19 success high forever, it has at least helped give her and her party an important boost. More importantly, Taiwan has shown that it can be a productive global player despite its often-compromised position.