Suga’s Difficult Start to 2021

The last couple of months have been a difficult period for Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide.  According to the polls periodically taken by Asahi Shimbun, he has so far been unable to capitalize on the high approval rating of 65 percent that he began his tenure with. On the contrary, his approval rating has steadily dropped. Asahi Shimbun’s latest poll, released on January 25, indicates that his approval rating has plummeted to 33 percent, the lowest since his government began in September 2020. The same poll indicated that his disapproval rating has also hit a peak at 45 percent. Another recent poll jointly conducted by Mainichi Shimbun and the Social Survey Research Center turned out to be even harsher on Suga, with an approval rating of 33 percent and a disapproval rating reaching to 57 percent, an 8-point jump from the December 2020 poll.

In both opinion polls, it is clear that the ups and downs of Suga’s approval rating are closely linked to the second wave of COVID-19 infections. The prime minister’s reluctance to declare a state of emergency despite repeated calls from governors across Japan has been largely seen as Suga and his government prioritizing economic revitalization over public health concerns amid the resurgence of COVID-19 in Japan. Even though the Japanese government finally declared a state of emergency for 11 prefectures, including the Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas, in early January, the decision was perceived as long overdue and has done little to slow the spread of COVID-19. 

However, the rapid decline of Suga’s approval rating cannot be attributed to the perceived mismanagement of his COVID-19 response alone. In fact, the aforementioned joint public opinion polls by Mainichi Shimbun and the Social Survey Research Center also asked respondents whom they blame the most for the virus’ spread: government policies, those who did not heed public health guidelines such as mask wearing and social distancing, or no one (given that COVID-19 is a new virus about which little is known, even now). A sizable portion, close to 30 percent of the respondents, attributed the spread of the virus to the behavior of those who did not heed public health recommendations. Even though 40 percent of the respondents did put the most blame on the government, it is not a black-and-white picture.  

Rather, the public seems to be disappointed by Suga’s inability to communicate the intention of his policies clearly, and the lack of transparency in his decisions. For instance, even prior to the government’s announcement of the “Go To” campaign in July, there was a great deal of anxiety about rolling out a program that essentially subsidized people to travel and dine out not so long after the first wave of infection passed. Critics warned the campaign could reignite the spread of COVID-19. Many governors, including Governors Koike Yuriko of Tokyo and Yoshimura Mieko of Yamagata, voiced their concerns, pushing the government to reconsider launching the program. As it turned out, Kyodo News reported on January 25 that a survey conducted by Kyoto University researchers found a strong correlation between the government’s promotion of the “Go To” campaign and a surge in COVID-19 cases. To date, however, there is no convincing explanation for why the government decided to launch the program despite so many concerns.  

The same goes with Suga’s hesitation over declaring a new state of emergency when COVID-19 began to show signs of a resurgence. The government has yet to explain why it took a couple of months to make the decision.

These examples all point to the biggest challenge for Suga as the prime minister: his lack of experience as the frontman. There is little doubt that Suga has a steady hand in executing complex policies, as amply demonstrated during his time as chief cabinet secretary for Prime Minister Abe Shinzo — after all, the sense of continuity and stability Suga provided was the biggest reason why he was ultimately chosen to succeed Abe. However, executing policies that have been decided by someone else (Abe, in Suga’s case) and making the topline decisions require a very different set of skills. Communicating those decisions clearly to the public requires yet another set of skills. And so far, Suga has not been able to prove that he has the latter two skills, which are essential as a leader.  

As many other larger decisions — one of which is whether to postpone or cancel the Tokyo Olympics slated to take place in the summer of 2021 — await Suga, the next few weeks might determine whether Suga will stay on as the prime minister beyond October, the end of the current Diet session.