Will the Philippines Change Its Constitution Before the 2022 Election?

Philippine lawmakers are once again considering President Rodrigo Duterte’s long-time desire to amend the country’s 1989 constitution – the administration’s fourth attempt in five years to change the form of government.

Supporters of the plan – known in the Philippines as charter change, or “cha-cha” – say amending the constitution will allow foreigners to hold majority stakes in sectors like oil and gas, mining, and media, which could give a jolt to the nation’s recovery from an economic slump due to the coronavirus.

“The need to attract foreign capital is critical to support our economy’s recovery from COVID-19,” House speaker Lord Allan Velasco said in a statement on January 10.

But Senate President Vicente Sotto III has said Duterte wishes to alter the constitution to eliminate the party-list system, which allows lawmakers from progressive groups critical of Duterte to win representation in the House.

Sotto claimed the system has been “abused by unmarginalized groups and groups calling for the fall of the government,” citing unfounded accusations made by Duterte that leftist political groups like the House Makabayan bloc are fronts for the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA).

A constitutional change could allow Duterte to not only expel political critics by eliminating the party-list system, but transfer the Philippines to a federal system of government. Doing so could allow him to make a variety of moves to guarantee his hold on power, such as transforming Congress into a unicameral legislature and becoming a prime minister with control over it.

The process would likely entail Congress becoming a constituent assembly, which would allow them to amend some or all of the constitution – including term limits on members of Congress and on presidents, who currently may serve a single six-year term.

Lawmakers have tried changing the constitution before but faced strong opposition from the Senate. In 2018, Congress drafted a new charter for a federal system of government, but it failed to pass in the Senate.

But Duterte allies made massive gains in the 2019 Senate election, meaning that chamber will likely be more amicable to the possibility now. Some staunch Duterte allies, like Senator Ronald dela Rosa, have already voiced their support of charter change.

Sotto, who sets the Senate agenda, has said Duterte only expressed his desire to change the party-list system but did not mention term limits. Duterte’s office has also denied that the president wishes to extend his time in office.

Progressive lawmakers have decried the proposed changes, saying they would not help the government fend off communists and would only reduce representation for the country’s poor.

“In truth, the communist bogey is only an excuse to slice and dice the Constitution for the personal purposes of those pushing for it,” ACT Teachers Representative France Castro, a member of the Makabayan bloc, said in January.

The deliberations over charter change have also rankled Filipinos who see it as a low priority while the country continues to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and works to secure a supply of vaccines. The debate is also happening exactly one year before the official opening of the campaign period for the 2022 presidential elections.

Some lawmakers have attempted to insist charter change will focus only on economic stipulations, such as liberalizing foreign investment rules.

But this will not mollify progressives, including environmental and land rights activists and Indigenous campaigners worried economic liberalization would open the country’s natural resources to exploitation. Several of these campaigners, such as the Indigenous leader Jomorito Guaynon, have been arrested and held without charge.

Charter change is by definition a long process with many possible outcomes, but there is one certainty: Its proponents will seek to ensure that voices like Guaynon’s are further marginalized.