Japarov Calls for Unity in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz President-elect Sadyr Japarov, who received around 79.2 percent of the vote on January 10, has promised a “dictatorship of law and justice" – ripping off a refrain favored by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Speaking to supporters in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, on January 11 Japarov pushed back against criticisms that with his election Kyrgyzstan was headed for a dictatorship. “There will be no dictatorship as some scaremongers say. There will be a dictatorship of law and justice.”

"Now we need unity,” he said.

While Japarov clearly blasted past the other 16 candidates contesting the election, turnout was reportedly less than 40 percent. (For reference, turnout for the quickly annulled October 2020 parliamentary election was around 56 percent; turnout for the 2017 presidential election was also around 56 percent). Frigid weather and political exhaustion likely kept many potential voters home.

In his victory speech, Japarov asked for support and patience. “I come to power at the most difficult moment, so I need your support for the next three to four years… You all know that one or two years is not enough to solve problems. I believe that we will get out of the crisis. For this we need political stability."

On January 11, congratulations and acknowledgements of Japarov’s victory rolled in from neighbors and partners. Putin congratulated Japarov in a statement that noted the strategic partnership between Russia and Kyrgyzstan and the “vast experience of fruitful cooperation” between the two. “I am confident that your work as head of state will further promote the development of the entire range of Russian-Kyrgyzstani ties,” Putin said. “This will undoubtedly meet the core interests of our friendly nations and strengthen stability and security in the Central Asia region.”

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of neighboring Uzbekistan called Japarov to congratulate him. An Uzbek readout of the call said that the conversation “took place in an open and friendly spirit.” Mirziyoyev “sincerely congratulated” Japarov “on his convincing victory in the presidential elections, as well as the successful organization of a referendum on amendments to the Constitution of Kyrgyzstan.”

The referendum had initially been envisioned as considering constitutional amendments contained in a draft constitution derisively dubbed the “Khanstitution.” The January 10 referendum was subsequently simplified to a question on what kind of government system Kyrgyzstan should have. Turnout cleared the 30 percent necessary for the referendum to be considered valid and a overwhelming majority opted for a presidential system.

A second referendum will be held, possibly in March, to consider a new draft constitution that reflects the presidential system Kyrgyz voters opted for.

Kyrgyzstan is the only parliamentary republic in a region dominated by strong presidential systems. Until 2010’s revolution, Kyrgyzstan had a presidential system and it is to that system Japarov and his allies hope to return.

Not all of Kyrgyzstan’s partners congratulated him.

The United States, in a statement issued via the embassy in Bishkek, congratulated “the Kyrgyz people for their active engagement in the Presidential Elections on January 10.” The statement concluded with a note that the U.S. “recognizes Sadyr Japarov on his election as President of the Kyrgyz Republic” but only after noting OSCE concerns that “one candidate benefited from disproportionate financial means and misuse of administrative resources, resulting in an uneven playing field” and credible reports from a domestic election observation group of “voter intimidation during the campaign period and on Election Day.”

The U.S. note ended with an outline of issues Washington hopes to work with Bishkek on, including “the strengthening of democratic institutions, economic development, our joint response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and cooperation in the fight against corruption and international organized crime.”

In contrast, when Sooronbay Jeenbekov won Kyrgyzstan's 2017 presidential election, the U.S. Embassy in Kyrgyzstan directly congratulated the new president and didn’t mention corruption or organized crime.

At this juncture, it’s clear Bishkek will have warmer relations with Moscow than Washington, at least in the short term. A return to a strong presidential system not only brings Kyrgyzstan into alignment with its neighbors, but with the Central Asian region’s dominant socio-political partners. But Japarov’s nationalistic rhetoric may clash with not just Russia’s interests in Kyrgzystan but China’s, too.

Japarov takes over the helm in Kyrgyzstan with little practical experience governing and myriad crises at hand: an economic disaster and the ongoing pandemic that sparked it. Kyrgyzstan is one of the world’s most remittance dependent countries and the pandemic has largely cut it off from a major labor market: Russia. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan reportedly owes $1.8 billion to the Export-Import Bank of China for Belt and Road Initiative project loans. In December 2020, Beijing offered a deferred repayment schedule, at 2 percent interest, but someday the bills will be due.

While Japarov asked in his victory speech for time to sort out Kyrgyzstan's problems, it’s unclear if Kyrgyz will give him the chance. The second referendum, on a new constitution, will be a significant flashpoint this spring.