Will Pakistan Expel the French Ambassador on TLP’s Demand?

As part of a new agreement with the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a radical Islamist group, Pakistan has decided to take the issue of the French ambassador’s expulsion from the country to Parliament.

However, it is unlikely that the government is going to really place the matter before the legislature. It may only have been buying time to delay the issue in hope that it will eventually abate.

For months, the TLP has demanded that Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government cut ties with France and expel its ambassador over the publications of cartoons featuring the Prophet Mohammad by French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in 2020. Cartoon controversies have long generated violent unrest across the Muslim world. In 2015, the magazine’s headquarters was targeted by militants for publishing caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently said that he would protect his citizens’ “right to blaspheme” and “freedom to speak, to write, to think, to draw.” Defending Charlie Hebdo’s right to produce controversial cartoons, Macron said, “I understand the sentiments being expressed [in the Muslim world] and I respect them. But you must understand my role right now, it’s to do two things: to promote calm and also to protect these rights.”

In Pakistan, the TLP has led violent protests in an attempt to protest against the enactment of any laws that it perceives as a threat to the finality of Prophet Mohammad. For years, the group has also put the Pakistani state under pressure with its massive street power. It appears the same tactics are going to be put on display once again when the April 20 deadline for the government to place the issue of French ambassador’s expulsion before Parliament ends.

In November 2020, the government and the TLP signed an agreement to end the group’s protests calling for the expulsion of the French ambassador from Pakistan. The agreement said the government would decide on the ambassador’s expulsion within three months. In February 2021, the TLP called off another planned protest after the group and the government agreed to a new understanding whereby the ruling party offered to place the issue before Parliament for a vote before April 20.

“Negotiations have been going on between the Government of Pakistan and TLP on this problem for a month during which the government has reaffirmed its resolve. Terms of the [previous] agreement will be presented in Parliament by April 20, 2021, and decisions will be taken with the approval of the Parliament,” the agreement reads.

Pakistan is not going to expel the French ambassador on the demand of a radical group. The Pakistani state has already made many concessions to the group, including not taking action against its leadership when the TLP called for the deaths of Supreme Court judges and the military chief over the release of a Christian women who spent eight years in prison on blasphemy accusations. These concessions have been the result of the group’s growing street power, which has forced state institutions into negotiating with it.

Analysts say that the government and the military establishment have been engaged with the group in an attempt to find a solution and it is likely that another agreement will be made to further postpone the issue.

“It is impossible that the government will expel the French ambassador from Pakistan or sever ties with France,” Khawaja Khalid Farooq, former inspector general of Punjab police said.

“Pakistan has done enough damage by appeasing the right-wing groups,” said Abdul Basit, who is an expert on Pakistan’s counterterrorism policy. “The military, as well as the government, wouldn’t want a religious group to accomplish what no other religious group in Pakistan has done,” he added.

The government and the military may use the volatile political situation to push for another agreement with the TLP. For months, Pakistan’s political parties have been at loggerheads, with Parliament’s voting virtually suspended. April coincides with the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, during which Muslims across the world fast. It is possible that the group will want to postpone the issue to a later date, as action on the matter during Ramadan may prove unpopular with its followers.

The new leader of the TLP, Saad Hussain Rizvi, who is the son of the former leader of the party, Khadim Hussain Rizvi, seems a bit more moderate than his father, whose violent and hostile approach was infamous. “After Khadim Rizvi’s death, Saad has consolidated control over the party. He may not be as good an orator as his late father but he commands the support of the party workers,” Basit told The Diplomat.

“He is more reasonable and it appears that the government’s approach to push for a quiet reconciliation over the issue of the French ambassador with him may be working.”

It remains concerning that the group continues to gain street power as its outreach and membership grows across the country. A month ago, the TLP opened its membership across the country and thousands stood in lines to join the party’s ranks.

Analysts believe that the military has directly taken over when it comes to dealing with TLP-related negotiations. Other political parties are not keen on using the issue to put pressure on the government as they view the TLP as a threat if allowed to enter Parliament.

The government and the military may be able to strike another agreement with the TLP before April 20, and the group is likely to make sure that it gains enough leverage to showcase the deal as a win to keep its followers happy. Beyond April, the government will have to think seriously about finding a permanent solution to the crisis. With the TLP strengthening its street power and gaining support across the country, the government is only postponing an imminent clash when it finally refuses to expel the French ambassador.