A Dilemma for Australia in Myanmar

The ongoing coup attempt in Myanmar has created significant concern in Canberra for the stability of Southeast Asia. However, the situation is also producing more direct consequences for Australia. In March, three Australians were detained by the country’s military. Sean Turnell, an economic adviser to now-former State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, was arrested a week after the coup began. Two other Australians were detained under house arrest after attempting to leave the country. It is suspected that the pair’s knowledge of foreign aid networks is the reason the military is interested in them.

This means that Australia’s investment in the ongoing situation in Myanmar goes beyond general concerns about human rights abuses and regional stability. Finding a way to secure the safety of Australian citizens is a priority for Canberra, but the Myanmar military is seemingly unconcerned about its international reputation and this diminishes the ability of countries like Australia to effectively influence them.

Despite this, diaspora groups in Australia have been urging Canberra to try to place greater pressure on Myanmar’s military, including greater sanctions on its senior leadership. Australia has over the past decade imposed financial sanctions and travel bans on senior military personnel, as well as cancelling the student visas of their children. This has been in relation to the ongoing persecution of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority.

Canberra also maintains an arms embargo against the country’s military. The Australian military had some limited – non-combat – defense cooperation with the Myanmar military, but it has now been suspended. Documents revealed to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) in early March indicated that Australian officials had been wrestling for several years with how to maintain these cooperative military links while also demonstrating a public distance from the generals, who have been accused of ethnic cleansing.

The coup may now make it easier for the Australian military to sever ties completely. Alongside the suspension of military cooperation, Australia has now made the decision to redirect its humanitarian engagement in Myanmar entirely through non-government organizations, ending engagement with government entities. Further sanctions are currently under review.

Yet Australia’s response to the behavior of Myanmar’s military is also limited by Canberra’s commitment to prioritizing ASEAN’s centrality to issues in Southeast Asia. In her statements on the situation, Foreign Minister Marise Payne highlighted the consultations she has had with ASEAN, and made note that “the political stability of ASEAN member states is essential to achieving our vision for a secure, peaceful, prosperous and open Indo-Pacific region with ASEAN at its center.”

The problem with this is that while ASEAN might occasionally make overtures to the ideals of democracy and human rights, authoritarian regimes still dominate the body. Only Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia have electoral systems that offer opposition parties any realistic opportunities of gaining power, and even these three countries are only designated “partly free” by Freedom House. This gives ASEAN as a whole little practical investment in challenging the Myanmar military through the same lens as Australia.

This, combined with ASEAN’s consensus-driven approach and reluctance to intervene in internal affairs, also means that the body will find it very difficult to place any considerable pressure on the Myanmar military, even if these countries are concerned about the regional instability that the situation is creating.

It also means that ASEAN will be able to offer little help to Australia in securing the safety of its citizens. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) has been able to provide consular assistance to the two Australians under house arrest, but not made any indication of being able to secure their release. Some very limited consular access has also been provided to Sean Turnell as well.

For the Australian government, the options it has to secure the safety of its citizens look limited. While the resistance of the people of Myanmar to the attempted coup remains admirable, the military does not seem likely to relinquish its control of the country. This means that relinquishing control of any Australians they may consider to be of value unfortunately also seems unlikely.