[{"_1":2,"_296":-5,"_297":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_16":17,"_294":295},"root",{"_5":6,"_14":15},"fb",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":8},"apiKey","AIzaSyAdxqOaB63feHHqSm_nZCKsSHpSAcxkct8","authDomain","thediplomat.firebaseapp.com","projectId","firebase-thediplomat","appId","ga",true,"routes/$issue",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"slug","2021-06","path","/2021-06","issue",{"_24":25,"_26":27,"_28":29,"_30":31,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":39,"_40":41,"_42":43},"eid","-MaXSLu2HEPCMriYTU0K","title","The South China Sea: The Next Global Conflict?","description","Welcome to the June 2021 issue of The Diplomat. This month, our cover story examines the likelihood that a minor incident in the South China Sea could spark a global cataclysm as devastating as the First World War. We also take stock of developments in Hong Kong a year after the national security law, evaluate the possibilities for Afghanistan after the looming U.S. withdrawal, and probe the gaps in prevailing narratives on the future of China-U.S. competition. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.","masthead","

\n Publisher\n Diplomat Media, Inc.
\n 1701 Pennsylvania Avenue
\n Suite 200
\n Washington, DC 20006
\n United States of America\n

\n Publisher\n James Pach\n

\n Editor-in-Chief\n Shannon Tiezzi\n

\n Managing Editor\n Catherine Putz\n

\n Security & Defense Editor\n Abhijnan Rej\n

\n Southeast Asia Editor\n Sebastian Strangio\n

\n Editor-at-Large\n Ankit Panda\n

\n Contributing Editors\nEleanor Albert
\nNick Aspinwall
\nNiha Dagia
\nRobert Farley
\nKyle Ferrier
\nJenna Gibson
\nBonnie Girard
\nDerek Grossman
\nJames Guild
\nUmida Hashimova
\nAsif Muztaba Hassan
\nAsim Ali
\nSara Hsu
\nLuke Hunt
\nUmair Jamal
\nMercy A. Kuo
\nJessie Lau
\nJongsoo Lee
\nJoshua Mcdonald
\nMong Palatino
\nJacob Parakilas
\nRajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
\nSudha Ramachandran
\nMitch Shin
\nThisanka Siripala
\nPaolo Sorbello
\nTroy Stangarone
\nSteven Stashwick
\nYuki Tatsumi
\nColleen Wood
\nGrant Wyeth\n

\n Design & Code\n Stefan Yanku\n

","number",79,"date","June 2021","month",6,"year",2021,"status","rdy","toc",[44,60,68,85,94,119,144,168,193,218,239,256,277],{"_24":45,"_46":47,"_26":48,"_49":50},"LTR","priority",0,"Letter","pages",[51],{"_24":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":59},"-MaXSMe07QdjBLKolcTe","lead","

A look at the long-term trendlines for some of the region’s most fraught issues, from the South China Sea to Afghanistan.

","model","story","preview",1,"Letter from the Editors",{"_24":61,"_46":58,"_26":62,"_49":63},"CVRS","Cover Story",[64],{"_24":65,"_53":66,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":67},"-MaXSMe7r7KFJF6gGuFz","

In Asia’s maritime heartland, all the ingredients of a global cataclysm are conspiring against the post-Cold War period of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

","Will the South China Sea Spark the Next Global Conflict?",{"_24":69,"_46":70,"_26":71,"_49":72},"LDS",2,"Leads",[73,77,81],{"_24":74,"_53":75,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":76},"-MaXSMe8pBnfTnFgfrKZ","

Beijing is establishing a police state in Hong Kong – even if it risks destroying the international city.

","Hong Kong’s New Police State",{"_24":78,"_53":79,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":80},"-MaXSMeALa2ncUf5560P","

The fate of the Afghan government following the Soviet withdrawal is more complex than sometimes assumed. That has lessons for Kabul today.

","Will Afghanistan Collapse When the US Withdraws?",{"_24":82,"_53":83,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":84},"-MaXSMeBUeBn-DOsUbtC","

How governments imagine the future – including the future of war – shapes their responses and planning in the present.

","Reimagining the Future of China-US Competition",{"_24":86,"_46":87,"_26":88,"_49":89},"INT",3,"Interview",[90],{"_24":91,"_53":92,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":93},"-MaXSMeCea2JT8YBxSPX","

“To better understand the unraveling Indian Ocean geopolitics, it is important to study and understand the new maritime identities of the Indian Ocean islands.”

","Darshana M. Baruah",{"_24":95,"_46":96,"_26":97,"_49":98},"CHN",4,"China",[99,103,107,111,115],{"_24":100,"_53":101,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":102},"-MaXSMeENX-tbb9c1ozK","

The Chinese government’s efforts to boost the birthrate put intense pressure on women to marry, stay married, and give birth.

","China’s Demographic Crisis Is Here, and Women Are Feeling the Heat",{"_24":104,"_53":105,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":106},"-MaXSMeFY8pp7kda-RfX","

China is the world’s leading producer and exporter of vaccines, particularly to the developing world.

","China's COVID-19 Vaccine Goes Global",{"_24":108,"_53":109,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":110},"-MaXSMeGhe1FGC1RoqIs","

Even as China’s IPO market booms, more and more firms are looking overseas – especially to the U.S.

","China’s Tightening of IPO Regulations Could Push More Companies Toward Overseas Listings",{"_24":112,"_53":113,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":87,"_40":41,"_26":114},"-MaXSMeIIgYyZDXrsTHu","

China’s four-point proposal for peace in the Middle East is the same one Beijing has raised, to little effect, for nearly a decade.

","Can China’s Israel-Palestine Peace Plan Work?",{"_24":116,"_53":117,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":96,"_40":41,"_26":118},"-MaXSMeJMvacuHoIM3Ow","

Chinese fans are quick to call out idols for crossing political red lines – and those norms are being internalized in the global pop culture industry.

","How Chinese Fans Enforce Chinese Nationalism on the World",{"_24":120,"_46":121,"_26":122,"_49":123},"NEA",5,"Northeast Asia",[124,128,132,136,140],{"_24":125,"_53":126,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":127},"-MaXSMeuqp-BQ9V2-ysS","

Despite naming pandemic management his top priority, Prime Minister Suga has seen cases explode under his watch.

","Japan’s COVID-19 Response: What Went Wrong?",{"_24":129,"_53":130,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":131},"-MaXSMevLI_T7frITmuf","

Seoul’s stance in the past year has grown markedly more ambitious, but still falls short of the commitments necessary to meet U.N. goals.

","South Korea Shifts to Address Climate Change",{"_24":133,"_53":134,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":135},"-MaXSMewRE3XE7bRFJXL","

Like many Asian countries, Seoul is having troubling sourcing vaccines. But unlike its neighbors, South Korea has so far refused to turn to a ready supplier: China.

","Why Isn’t South Korea Buying Chinese Vaccines?",{"_24":137,"_53":138,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":87,"_40":41,"_26":139},"-MaXSMeyIvKpCbUiSxaI","

While relations have soured, pop culture exchanges are going strong – in both directions.

","Despite Political Tensions, Japan’s ‘Demon Slayer’ Tops South Korean Book Market and Box Office",{"_24":141,"_53":142,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":96,"_40":41,"_26":143},"-MaXSMezl32e5EV1k7ja","

Tokyo has finally begun to openly recognize that the peace and security of the Taiwan Strait directly impacts that of Japan.

","Prospects and Challenges for Japan-Taiwan Security Cooperation",{"_24":145,"_46":37,"_26":146,"_49":147},"SOA","South Asia",[148,152,156,160,164],{"_24":149,"_53":150,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":151},"-MaXSMf-JXOjbQYO13sS","

Modi’s Israel policy has been remarkably pragmatic.

","What Shapes India’s Israel Policy?",{"_24":153,"_53":154,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":155},"-MaXSMf0W_P0a4udQOiR","

The recent Israel-Palestine violence has killed the possibility of Pakistan recognizing Israel any time soon.

","Why Pakistan Can’t Recognize Israel",{"_24":157,"_53":158,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":159},"-MaXSMf1G77QfBPaQ6ap","

Bungled communications and ethnic profiling have become hallmarks of Sri Lanka’s pandemic response.

","Sri Lanka Teaches the World How Not to Respond to COVID-19",{"_24":161,"_53":162,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":87,"_40":41,"_26":163},"-MaXSMf2wzPX0Zoyh_gK","

The latest government pushback followed intelligence that terrorist groups had infiltrated Hefajat-e-Islam.

","Bangladesh Cracks Down on Hardline Islamist Group",{"_24":165,"_53":166,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":96,"_40":41,"_26":167},"-MaXSMf4RgY4ftRMli1g","

The country must ditch its tech-centric approach and instead draw from its past successes in mass vaccination.

","India Must Rethink Its Pandemic Vaccination Strategy",{"_24":169,"_46":170,"_26":171,"_49":172},"SEA",7,"Southeast Asia",[173,177,181,185,189],{"_24":174,"_53":175,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":176},"-MaXSMf6ALknr_5F9Afr","

The National Unity Government has the weight of moral and political legitimacy on its side – but gaining international recognition will not be simple.

","Who Has the Right to Represent Myanmar at the UN?",{"_24":178,"_53":179,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":180},"-MaXSMf7PBLOhhNjr-Vn","

Peace in Mindanao, a core goal of the Duterte administration, has been hindered by delays in the Bangasmoro peace process and a spike in conflict incidents.

","Can the Philippines Bring Mindanao Under Control by 2022?",{"_24":182,"_53":183,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":184},"-MaXSMf82y3E5KesQyUm","

In breaking through old bottlenecks, Indonesia’s president has blurred the lines between the state and private enterprise.

","How Jokowi Solved Indonesia’s Toll Road Dilemma. Sort Of.",{"_24":186,"_53":187,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":87,"_40":41,"_26":188},"-MaXSMf9ZQxOndLLFfD1","

Lawyers that offer to represent protesters detained by the junta are themselves facing abduction and arrest.

","The Danger of Defending the Defenseless in Myanmar",{"_24":190,"_53":191,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":96,"_40":41,"_26":192},"-MaXSMfAJTQNlqo2k8dG","

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, prisons in Thailand were already in a state of crisis. Reform is long overdue.

","Thailand’s Prison Overcrowding Crisis Exacerbated by COVID-19",{"_24":194,"_46":195,"_26":196,"_49":197},"CEA",8,"Central Asia",[198,202,206,210,214],{"_24":199,"_53":200,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":201},"-MaXSMfBe03CvCHUArv2","

In span of two weeks, Kyrgyz authorities seized control of the country’s most lucrative asset.

","Kyrgyzstan’s Golden Problem: Nationalists Come for Kumtor, Again",{"_24":203,"_53":204,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":205},"-MaXSMfCuRMwje55LGHT","

Power consolidation and the institutional transformations of Turkmenistan’s assembly bodies.

","Explaining the Evolution of Turkmenistan’s Assembly Bodies",{"_24":207,"_53":208,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":209},"-MaXSMfD51GUbymFiTb1","

The land code protests of 2016 were a rare occurrence and yielded a rare outcome: a shift in state policy.

","Kazakhstan Bans Sale of Agricultural Lands to Foreigners",{"_24":211,"_53":212,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":87,"_40":41,"_26":213},"-MaXSMfEMH3M0q4ICw_R","

Khidirnazar Allaqulov’s first attempt to register his Haqiqat va Taraqqiyot (Truth and Development) Social Democratic Party has been refused by state authorities amid a pressure campaign.

","Uzbek Authorities Deny Registration to New Political Party With Presidential Ambitions",{"_24":215,"_53":216,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":96,"_40":41,"_26":217},"-MaXSMfGTKN47n6JHUel","

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan may produce new security threats, but there will be economic consequences as well.

","What Does the US Withdrawal From Afghanistan Mean for Central Asia?",{"_24":219,"_46":220,"_26":221,"_49":222},"OCE",9,"Oceania",[223,227,231,235],{"_24":224,"_53":225,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":226},"-MaXSMfHU2XWhhhmnZUB","

Canberra refuses to accept that seeking asylum is a fundamentally messy process.

","Australia Doubles Down on Indefinite Detention",{"_24":228,"_53":229,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":230},"-MaXSMfIF2ujzeexgpaN","

The premiers of New South Wales and Victoria could once again become Australia’s most powerful political actors.

","How the COVID-19 Pandemic Loosened Australia’s Federation",{"_24":232,"_53":233,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":234},"-MaXSMfJc5xHLAbuCk66","

Canberra and Beijing pass the one-year mark of increased tensions over COVID-19 origins and the subsequent trade war.

","Australia-China Trade Tensions Persist With Cancelled Agreements and Sharp Statements",{"_24":236,"_53":237,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":87,"_40":41,"_26":238},"-MaXSMfKoc68weIGTko5","

As the Biden administration confronts China’s growing assertiveness, the challenges confronting the smallest Pacific Islands should be front of mind.

","How the US Can Protect the Sovereignty of the Smallest Pacific Islands",{"_24":240,"_46":241,"_26":242,"_49":243},"USA",10,"US in Asia",[244,248,252],{"_24":245,"_53":246,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":247},"-MaXSMfM4SFox0D86Rxf","

As the U.S. president champions the benefits of mass transit, there is excitement about potential opportunities for Asian companies to enter the market.

","What Does Biden’s Domestic Infrastructure Push Mean for Asia?",{"_24":249,"_53":250,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":251},"-MaXSMfNG7bSx9aklgyC","

The increasing inseparability of offline and online rights abuses is manifestly clear in India.

","China Is No Excuse for the US to Ignore Human Rights in India",{"_24":253,"_53":254,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":255},"-MaXSMfOUI9LrdeNA7zi","

The Indo-Pacific focus of the Biden-Moon joint statement was notable.

","Biden Pulls South Korea Closer in Alignment With US Indo-Pacific Strategy",{"_24":257,"_46":258,"_26":259,"_49":260},"SCR",11,"Security",[261,265,269,273],{"_24":262,"_53":263,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":264},"-MaXSMfRQVagDqWzni1Z","

The defense chief wants to leverage asymmetry instead of numbers; the U.S. Navy wants a bigger fleet that isn’t paid for.

","The US Navy Keeps Advocating a Fleet at Odds With the Pentagon’s New Strategic Vision",{"_24":266,"_53":267,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":268},"-MaXSMfSbmH7RvbF0AIJ","

Labeling the West Papua National Army-Free Papua Organization a terrorist outfit complicates future conflict resolution efforts.

","Conflict Resolution in Papua and the Label of Terrorism",{"_24":270,"_53":271,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":272},"-MaXSMfT6ZbY8olBw-N1","

Are we being visited by aliens, or are we learning something about military secrecy?

","UFOs, Secrets, and Signaling",{"_24":274,"_53":275,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":87,"_40":41,"_26":276},"-MaXSMfUvuKdFKZ7ef2x","

A significant technological feat for China, Beijing’s accomplishment is also a reminder of the revved-up space competition among the major space powers.

","China’s Tianwen-1 Lands Rover on Mars",{"_24":278,"_46":279,"_26":280,"_49":281},"ASL",12,"Asia Life",[282,286,290],{"_24":283,"_53":284,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":285},"-MaXSMfWUIaIql_2TRfj","

India’s capital will finally have its own school managing body, but that’s not the most critical proposed reform.

","Teachers Over Textbooks: Delhi to Build Its Own Curriculum",{"_24":287,"_53":288,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":289},"-MaXSMfXLEF6kwI0Ewv_","

For a “democracy without women,” what does the imperial succession debate mean for gender parity in Japan?

","The Iron Ceiling and Japan’s Chrysanthemum Throne",{"_24":291,"_53":292,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_40":41,"_26":293},"-MaXSMfXLEF6kwI0Ewva","

The statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs carried echoes of the “Asian values” debate of the 1990s.

","Singapore Rebukes US Embassy Over LGBT Rights Event","routes/$issue.cover",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"actionData","errors"]