Will the Tokyo Olympics Help Prime Minister Suga?

On July 23, the Tokyo Olympics began. As the world watches the Games with excitement, the ambivalence that existed in Japan about hosting the Olympics in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have faded. Reports by major media outlets in Japan are filled with a celebratory tone as they cover positive news for a change: Japanese athletes winning medals and visiting foreign teams enjoying their stay in Japan. Most recently, the American and Australian softball teams’ head coaches’ rave reviews of peaches they have been eating in Fukushima — where softball games are taking place — attracted attention as symbolizing Fukushima prefecture’s reconstruction following the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake a decade ago.

Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide also is trying his best to take advantage of the influx of world leaders to conduct robust summit diplomacy. In addition to bilateral meetings with visitors from Japan’s friends and partners — including U.S. First Lady Jill Biden, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai, Swiss Prime Minister Guy Parmelin, and French President Emmanuel Macron — Suga has also met the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and Director-General Tedros of the World Health Organization (WHO).

However, behind those positive headlines, the developments that unfolded days before the Opening Ceremony crystallized the perpetual problems that have dogged the Games, and Suga’s government, over the past year.

For example, two people that were to play a key role in the Opening Ceremony were removed just days before the ceremony took place. One was Koyamada Keigo, who was one of the chief musical contributors for the Opening Ceremony. He was forced to resign after his past as a bully targeting a handicapped classmate was revealed. The other was Kobayashi Kentaro, who played a central role in orchestrating the ceremony. He was removed from his position after it was revealed that Kobayashi, when he was a comedian, performed a segment that made light of the Holocaust. Given the central role that the two men played in shaping the proceedings, there was a great amount of pressure against Japan to considerably shorten the Opening Ceremony, simplifying it to the basics.

Furthermore, the Olympic Games opened as Tokyo remained under a state of emergency, with its adjoining prefectures also continuing to have restrictions for social gatherings in place. In particular, the severe restrictions on the service industry, including restaurants and bars, continue to add pressure to these businesses, increasing the odds that many will close their doors permanently. The situation was aggravated when Nishimura Yasutoshi, the minister in charge of economic revitalization, indicated that he had urged financial institutions to put pressure on restaurants and bars that do not honor the government’s recommendations for shortening their business hours and suspending serving alcoholic beverages to contain the spread of COVID-19.

Throughout these developments, one thing has become clear: The incumbent Suga administration critically lacks the transparency that voters have been calling for. Following the resignations of Koyamada and Kobayashi, there has been zero effort on the part of the Japanese government to hold anyone accountable for their appointments in the first place. Similarly, in the face of public outcry from businesses, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu merely mentioned that Nishimura’s comment did not reflect the actual government policy without indicating whether the government would hold the minister accountable.

As for the Olympics itself, the Suga government has done little beyond repeating its mantra of “holding the Olympic Games safely” to alleviate the Japanese public’s concern about Japan hosting the Olympics despite the number of COVID-19 positive cases continuing to spike. The government has turned the state of emergency declaration for various parts of Japan on and off without clear exit strategies.

In all these episodes, the absence of Suga as the government’s chief strategic communicator is noticeable. Prior to him assuming the office of the prime minister, many wondered if Suga, despite his track record as a superb “behind-the-scenes” man as former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s chief cabinet secretary, could prove his ability to lead as the front man. The developments leading up to the Olympics demonstrated that Suga has yet to become comfortable with being front-and-center as a leader.

The opening of the Olympics gave an atmospheric boost to Japan. But that positive mood is due to the Japanese public’s desire to cheer for athletes, from Japan and from abroad, who have trained for this occasion despite the COVID-19 restrictions. In other words, their enthusiasm for the Olympics has nothing to do with their support for the performance of Suga government. While the Olympics has provided a much-needed morale boost for Japan, it remains to be seen whether any of that will be translated into support for Suga.