Pakistan Wants to Engage Disgruntled Baloch Leaders. Will It Work?

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan said in July that his government is considering “talking to insurgents” in Balochistan to resolve the long-standing grievances of the Baloch people.

“I am thinking we should talk to them [insurgents and nationalists]. It is possible that they have old grievances, and they were exploited by other countries,” Khan said while addressing a gathering of local elders in Balochistan’s Gwadar district.

In his remarks, Khan said that Pakistan would never have to worry about insurgency in Balochistan if the money meant for development of the province and its people did not go toward enriching politicians.

While Khan’s intent to hold dialogue with regional leaders is commendable, there are many reasons to believe that this effort is a nonstarter and will not lead to any meaningful outcome.

Soon after his announcement, Khan appointed the Jamhoori Watan Party’s leader, Shahzain Bugti, as his special assistant on reconciliation and harmony in the province. Khan has reportedly tasked Bugti with holding talks with Baloch leaders on behalf of the government.

Bugti’s appointment as a special representative on reconciliation with Balochistan shows a lack of seriousness on the part of Khan in setting a stage for the peace process.

Bugti comes from one of many Baloch tribes that have competed for influence and resources in Balochistan for decades. He is not accepted as a leader outside his own tribe, and perhaps not even within his own tribe. Arguably, his appointment is solely based on his relationship with the military rather than his leadership in the province.

Bugti is the grandson of the late Nawab Akbar Bugti, who was killed by Pakistani forces in a military operation in 2006 after he launched an insurgency against the state. His family members have waged an insurgency campaign against the state for more than a decade now. It is unlikely that Bugti will be able to convince his own family about negotiating with the state, let alone persuading dozens of other tribal leaders.

If anything, his appointment was aimed at hurting Baloch leaders who do not agree with the state’s policy of running the province from the country’s capital, Islamabad.

A government official in Islamabad who is aware of the developments told The Diplomat on condition of anonymity that the prime minister didn’t even inform the provincial government about his decision to launch peace talks with disgruntled Baloch leaders or to appoint Bugti as his special representative.

It is unfortunate that the provincial government has been excluded from the process. When the federal government appoints a special representative to lead talks, and ignores the provincial government in the initiative, it gives the impression that there is no interest on the part of the state to genuinely launch talks with Baloch leaders.

That the initiative is nothing but rhetoric is indicated by the fact that conditions have already been imposed on the reconciliation process. Soon after the prime minister announced that he was initiating talks with Baloch leaders, Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Fawad Chaudhry said the government was ready to hold dialogue with Baloch tribes and leaders “but those having links with India and involved in unrest in the province will not be considered for negotiations.”

At this point, it is unclear how the state will differentiate between India-sponsored insurgents and others. In Balochistan, anyone demanding a greater share of resources for the province or objecting to the military’s heavy-handed approach in the province is labeled an “Indian stooge.” In fact, anyone whom the government and the military establishment is unable to win over is considered anti-state. Even before starting the peace process, the state has said that its rapprochement will focus only on insurgents who are not supported by India. However, it has not clear how the state will define which tribe or leader is associated with India.

Many view the reconciliation drive with skepticism because it is unclear if the country’s powerful military will endorse any meaningful concessions offered by Khan’s government to Baloch leaders. In this regard, the issue of missing persons in Balochistan remains a key problem. No previous civilian government has been able to force the military into releasing hundreds of civilians that it may have abducted over the years. In fact, all previous peace initiatives failed because the issue of missing persons in Balochistan was never resolved and the military continued with its approach of policing the region with an iron fist.

So far, Khan’s government has not touched the issue beyond offering statements of support to its allies from Balochistan. Last year, Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) President Sardar Akhtar Mengal left the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led federal government over its failure to implement an accord related to the missing persons issue in Balochistan. “We have simply demanded that the missing persons be recovered and the National Action Plan against terrorism be implemented in letter and spirit,” Mengal said while speaking at a session of the National Assembly last year.

“If our demands were illegal and unconstitutional then we are ready to face even death. But then all those who have put their signatures on these accords should also face the same,” he said in a veiled criticism of Khan’s government, which failed to secure the release of missing persons.

If the federal government is unable to fulfil the demands of its allies while they are in government, it is unclear how it can reach out to alienated Baloch leaders through a special representative and by excluding Balochistan’s provincial government.

It is possible that the military has not given any mandate to Khan to reach out to Baloch leaders or on resolving their issues.

If anything, Khan’s statement of launching a peace initiative was nothing more than rhetoric and reflects the state’s decades-old approach of appeasing and wooing some Baloch tribes and leaders to run the province.