Samoa: Fiame’s Uphill Climb

The Pacific Island nation of Samoa isn’t commonly discussed on the global stage, but its recent three-month long political crisis caught international attention. It had all the spectacle of a good political thriller: accusations of treason, vote-rigging, foreign interference, Supreme Court rulings, and claims of a “bloodless coup” and a “feminist plot.”

The saga began on April 9, after early election results showed that Fiame Naomi Mata’afa was on track to challenge the incumbent Prime Minister Tuila’epa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi – one of the world’s longest-serving elected leaders – for his seat.

Preliminary results showed that Fiame’s Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST) party and Tuila’epa’s Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) had claimed 25 seats each. After some political wrangling, the Samoan electoral commission determined that the constitutional provision requiring at least 10 percent of seats to be held by women had not been met, and so an additional female candidate was elected to the HRPP. The remaining independent member, Tuala losefo Ponifasio, then sided with FAST, hanging parliament.

Both parties took it to the Supreme Court, which ultimately overturned the electoral commission’s decision, cancelling the additional seat provided to the HRPP and paving the way for Fiame’s succession to the prime ministership.

After the court decision, Fiame, flanked by the chief justice, members of her party, and dozens of supporters arrived at parliament, expecting to be sworn in. But after being in office for 22 years, Tuila’epa was not prepared to step down without a fight. Instead, his supporters locked the door to parliament, barricading themselves in and the prime minister-elect out. Tuila’epa dissolved parliament and ordered new elections for May 21, 2021.

Seeing no other option, Fiame – who had previously served as a minister in Tuila’epa’s government – and her party erected a tent on the lawn outside parliament and held their own swearing-in ceremony. This effectively left Samoa with two governments and two prime ministers.

The political wrangling would continue for another two months, ending with the Court of Appeal declaring that the swearing-in ceremony on the front lawn was constitutional and binding, and that Fiame was, indeed, prime minister.

Fiame takes the helm at a challenging time in the nation’s history. Samoa’s economic situation is bleak, the impacts of climate change are starting to bite, disputes between China and Australia and their allies are reverberating across the region, and the bloc that would typically guide Samoa through the aforementioned issues, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), is in disarray. Fiame’s challenges, moving forward, are myriad.

Tough Economic Times

It’s been a tough year for Pacific Island economies, and Samoa is no exception. While no nation has been untouched by COVID-19 and the related economic upheaval, vulnerable islands that depend on commodity exports and tourism have been perhaps the most harshly affected.

Samoa’s economy is predicted to shrink another 9.2 percent this fiscal year, on top of a contraction of 3.2 percent in 2020. The country, which depended upon tourism for 23 percent of its GDP in 2019, has suffered acutely from the border closures that have protected it against an influx of COVID cases.

According to Alexandre Dayant, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands Program, Samoa’s economic recovery depends on two critical factors.

“The first one is vaccination. The quicker people will get their jabs, the quicker the economy will see resumption of private sector activities,” he said.

Samoa’s vaccination rate has roughly kept pace with Australia’s. As of late September, 81 percent of those eligible had received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and Samoa authorities hope to reach 99 percent within a few weeks.

Samoa’s relative success in its race to vaccinate may come as a surprise to some; the nation’s devastating 2019 measles outbreak was blamed in part on vaccination rates as low as 31 percent, and hesitancy among the populace. With this in mind, it’s possible that the campaign to vaccinate, while off to a raging start, could dwindle.

The second major factor that Samoa’s economic recovery hinges on is economic stimulus.

“The economic stimulus needs to be maintained as long as necessary to sustain the pace of the economic recovery and preserve financial stability,” Dayant said. “The issue here is that the pockets of the government are not bottomless, and international support needs to keep flowing.”

Even if Fiame gets these ducks in a row, however, Dayant said any unforeseen circumstances like a natural disaster, which are not uncommon in the Pacific, could again flatten the economy.

“So yes, it could be hard for Samoa to recoup its losses,” he said.

Sala Dr. George Carter, a research fellow in geopolitics and regionalism at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at Australian National University (ANU), warns that Fiame’s economic know-how is not her strongest asset.

“Her experience with economics is limited as she has not previously held portfolios in finance or on the economic side of government,” said Carter. “So, she does have the challenge of trying to find economic solutions to cater for these COVID needs.”

“She takes government at a time where businesses are screaming to government for solutions, for help,” Carted continued. While the rough period “initially looked like [it would last] maybe three to six months, the economic challenges are now likely to be another three or four years.”

If her inexperience in economic policy reflects a genuine lack of expertise, Fiame will need to depend upon solid counsel to deliver an economic strategy that can guide the country out of its current quandary. Fortunately, Carter said that one of Fiame’s key strengths is collaboration.

“She’ll lean on those around her with economic expertise and this doesn’t even need to be in Samoa. She recently looked towards New Zealand for technical support on this [matter].”

Dayant believes that Fiame has already made some astute economic decisions that suggest she is a thoughtful leader.

“I think the decision she took to hold the $128 million Chinese-backed port development looks like an economically sound one,” he said. According to the International Monetary Fund, Samoa’s debt is sustainable but could easily be pushed over the edge thanks to its acute vulnerability to natural disasters.

“37.6 percent of Samoa’s external debt is due to China, and this new project would have definitely worsened the situation,” said Dayant. “So, my summary of her economic decisions to date: so far, so good.”

The Climate Change Conundrum

Then there’s the ubiquitous specter of climate change. Most of Samoa’s population and critical infrastructure is located on the coast, which means the country is highly vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones, flooding, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and king tides – all of which are being hurried on by a warming climate.

Sea levels in the Pacific are rising at much faster rates than in other parts of the globe, thanks to a gravitational effect known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in August this year, found that sea levels will continue to rise interminably, making coastal inundations more frequent and threatening fresh water sources.

According to Dr. Anita Latai-Niusulu, a geographer and senior lecturer in the Department of Social Sciences at the University of Samoa, the country faces frequent flooding in urban areas, especially those along floodplains or fringing the coast. Moreover, Latai-Niusulu said much of the nation’s infrastructure is built without proper environmental impact assessments, exacerbating the impacts of climate change.

At the same time, more severe and longer-lasting droughts and heat waves have contributed to an increased spread of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, which in the summer of 2017-18 had infected more than 3,000 people – close to 2 percent of the country’s population.

Facing up to the multifaceted threats posed by climate change will be perhaps the greatest challenge any Pacific leader has to face in the coming decades, let alone a newly minted leader with a vociferous opposition. Fiame was, however, a vocal and driven climate advocate for her country in her past role as minister for the environment under Tuila’epa.

“She was the key minister in charge of climate change, especially on global negotiations for the last four years,” said Carter. “She was very active and prominent in that role. She has been especially important in addressing how women are most vulnerable to climate change impacts.”

Fiame may be helped by the developed climate resilience of her own populace, with recent research from the National University of Samoa and the University of Otago suggesting Samoans are more aware of and more adaptable to climate change’s ravaging effects than Western observers often give them credit for.

But despite community resilience and collective adaptation, Samoa’s landscape will change dramatically in the coming years, and the country’s leadership will be forced to mitigate the consequences.

Latai-Niusulu said that while Samoans have weathered cyclones and heatwaves, the types of dramatic flash flooding predicted to occur, exacerbated by the clearance of upland forests and improper infrastructure, will present a thornier challenge for islanders.

Keeping Samoa’s Pacific Prominence 

Under Tuila’epa, Samoa has positioned itself as a leader in the region for decades. At a time when the Pacific faces upheaval and encroaching threats, it’s probable Fiame will want to mark herself as a diplomatic force in the currently fraying Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).

“Samoa has been a very active member of regional organizations since the beginning of the South Pacific Commission in 1947 and the beginning of the Pacific Islands Forum,” said Carter. “Today, it’s a trusted member of and even hosts some of these regional organizations.”

Earlier this year, Tuila’epa made a public bid to rehome the University of the South Pacific from Fiji to Samoa, after the university became a target of the Fijian government.

“Samoa is revered in the region as a leading player when it comes to national issues benefiting not just our country but the Pacific Forum family as a whole,” Tuila’epa said in a statement at the time.

George said he expects Fiame will sustain her predecessor’s commitment to Pacific regionalism, and that she’s well placed to do so.

“Tuila’epa was seen as a pinup boy for regional politics, but what many people don’t know is that the next minister that was participating in these meetings between these organizations was Fiame,” he said. “So, behind the scenes, Fiame was building up a lot of experience and importantly, trust with these regional organizations. She can lead in this regard.”

Fiame’s regional ties will likely extend into Samoa’s wealthier neighboring nations, too.

“You have large Samoan communities living in New Zealand and Australia so Samoa’s relationship with them is very, very strong. I see Fiame continuing to build on that relationship,” said Carter.

“I believe it’ll strengthen further. Many people in her party are also very aligned with policies in Australia and New Zealand and have family members in those countries, so it’s likely they’ll bring the countries closer too.”

Foreign Policy

Looking outward, Carter thinks it’s likely Fiame will position herself as a thought leader on the global stage, especially around the most pressing Pacific issues, like climate change, development, and social justice.

“Samoa has been very vocal on getting more countries to support sustainable development. It’s not just about climate change, or economic issues, but it’s this global pact, through the Samoa Pathway at the United Nations, that ensures development progress in small island states and [helps] to improve the livelihoods of countries’ most vulnerable people. So, on this, Samoa is very much a global voice,” Carter said.

“Fiame will continue to stand up in areas of social justice, social protections, and social issues broadly on the global stage. I think we will very soon see more regional and international aspirations from Fiame’s government.”

“She will be the main person in these meetings. She’s also the minister of foreign affairs. She’s very strong, competent, diligent, well spoken. I think there’ll also be an appreciation from outside Samoa that she is a female leader.”

In terms of diplomatic alliances, one of Samoa’s key strategic partners is China. China is the single largest creditor in Samoa, accounting for about 40 percent, or some A$206 million, of its external debt, leading both New Zealand and Australia to criticize the terms of the relationship. Once Fiame took over, there was media speculation as to whether she’d distance her country from China, but Carter doesn’t see this happening.

“She’s not going to go off today and make a decision and tell the world tomorrow. She’s not brash. The relationship with China, diplomatically, economically, is very strong and I don’t think that will change any time soon.”

Fiame is also disparaging of Western nations’ paternalistic attitudes to Samoan diplomatic decision-making. In a speech at Latrobe University in 2019, she said, “People keep on telling us, including Australia and New Zealand, that we’re not old enough, we’re not capable enough, to run our own relationships with China.”

In any case, Carter warns that Fiame may never be able to prove herself on the international stage if things aren’t first resolved at home.

“Given the opposition was in power for 40 years, they know how everything works, they’ll be a very effective opposition now, watching for any mistake. They’ll be very vocal, perhaps even disruptive,” he said.

“The former prime minister is still very strong. He has a lot of friends in high places. I think it will become the most vocal and active opposition [not only] in Samoa’s history but throughout the Pacific’s politics. He’s not going away. He’s going to be there, watching very closely,” Carter said.

“It’s not going to be easy for her. It’s very possible that she might not be able to do a whole lot, especially given COVID and the internal politics. But I like the tip of the spear analogy, this idea that she’s the one that knocked the door down and that now others can follow her.”