Will the LDP Presidential Race Bring Lasting Change to Japan’s Ruling Party?
Suga’s unintended legacy may be catalyzing diversity – in terms of age and gender – within the LDP’s policy debates.
On September 29, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) chose Kishida Fumio as it new leader. Kishida will succeed Suga Yoshihide as Japan’s prime minister when the Japanese Diet convenes for its extraordinary session to select the new prime minister in October.
Suga’s surprise announcement on September 3 that he would not seek re-election when his term expired triggered a flurry of activity within the LDP. The most obvious consequence was the LDP presidential race itself. Prior to Suga’s resignation, there were only a couple of obvious candidates who might run. The potential contenders included not only Kishida but also other familiar names, such as former defense and agricultural minister Ishiba Shigeru. There was even speculation that former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo might try to come back to power again, given that he is again eligible to run for the LDP presidency because he has been out of the position for the last year. But Suga’s resignation, coming as public support for his cabinet crumbled while he tried to implement the policies he inherited from Abe, generated momentum within the party to call for a more robust LDP presidential election.
Second, as public support for the Suga cabinet continues to fall, a great sense of urgency has begun to grow among younger LDP Diet members. As the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition continued to suffer losses in local elections, these younger LDP Diet members began to worry that support for the LDP will continue to decay if their party does not make serious attempts to reform itself and become more diverse and inclusive. Their shared sense of urgency resulted in a new intra-faction group named To-fu isshin no kai (coalition for the party renewal). The group advocates for greater transparency in the LDP decision-making process and an open, robust, and inclusive policy debate within the party.
These two developments resulted in making this year’s LDP presidential race – which has been generally underwhelming, with the result highly predictable in the past – one of the most interesting in recent history. First of all, this year’s LDP presidential race had the most diverse line-up yet, with two women among the four candidates. The four contenders also reflected the diverse views within the LDP on various policy issues, both in domestic and foreign policies.
Furthermore, for the first time in the LDP’s history, a vast majority of LDP Diet members voted independently regardless of the faction they belong to. In the past LDP presidential elections, the elders of the factions decided which candidate their faction members should vote for, and everyone in the faction followed the marching orders. This has made the results of the race predictable even before the competition starts, sometimes preventing potential candidates from even trying to run. This time around, however, with the exception of the Kochi-kai faction, which Kishida heads, all the other factions decided to allow their members to cast their votes independently based on their judgment. This not only made the results of the campaign unpredictable, but it also forced each of the four candidates to articulate their policy visions in public fora. That led to the four candidates having televised policy debates several times leading up to the election date.
Finally, aforementioned To-fu Isshin no Kai also pressed each candidate to articulate their vision prior to the election. The group invited each of the four candidates for town hall-style meetings where the candidates faced a series of pointed questions ranging from their ideas for LDP reform, to what type of personality they consider necessary for some of the key leadership positions (i.e., chief cabinet secretary in the government, or secretary-general and chairperson of Policy Research Council in LDP), and their principles of governing. These town halls with the candidates provided unprecedented opportunity for inter-generational dialogue within LDP.
What exactly the Suga government will be remembered for – whether its handling (or mishandling) of COVID-19, hosting of the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, or steadily promoting Quad relations between Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. – is still in question. But when looking back on this period in a few years, Suga’s unintentional legacy may be that his resignation provided the opportunity for the LDP to facilitate diversity and generational change within the party.
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Yuki Tatsumi is a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center.