The ICC Will Probe Duterte. Will He Get Off Scot-Free?

As president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte made the extrajudicial killing of drug users and political dissenters into state policy. He will leave office under investigation after the International Criminal Court announced it would probe Duterte’s deadly drug war, calling its alleged killings a “widespread and systematic attack” against civilians.

The ICC will investigate killings in the period between June 30, 2016, when Duterte took office, and March 2019, when the Philippines withdrew from the court in an attempt to stifle investigations. It will also investigate Duterte’s anti-drug campaign as mayor of Davao, where hundreds were allegedly killed between 2011 and 2016 by a notorious vigilante group known as the “Davao death squad.”

Duterte has pledged not to cooperate with the ICC probe. “The country will not allow anyone from the ICC to come in and gather information and evidence,” said Salvatore Panelo, Duterte’s lawyer. “They will be barred entry.” But Duterte could potentially be vulnerable to prosecution after leaving office when his single six-year term expires next year.

Boxing legend and Philippine senator Manny Pacquiao announced he would run for president after being nominated by a faction of the PDP-Laban party, which is also Duterte’s party. In his announcement, Pacquiao vowed that all corrupt officials would face prison. “We gave you a chance, but you failed us,” he said. A former ally of Duterte, Pacquiao has heavily criticized the incumbent on China and corruption.

It’s unclear, however, whether Pacquiao would prosecute Duterte in Philippine courts – a painfully slow process – or allow ICC investigators into the country. He has defended the drug war in the past and, in 2019, said the Philippines should introduce death by firing squad for drug criminals.

The drug war also remains wildly popular among Filipinos, largely due to it being marketed as beneficial to public safety and cleanliness while rooting out rampant drug use – a sort of repackaging of the “broken windows” method of law enforcement touted by American mayors in the 1990s. And just as New York’s policing indiscriminately targeted people of color, citizen activists allege the Philippine drug war has clearly targeted the poor. The vast majority of drug war victims have been people living in slums and impoverished urban areas, and activists often allege that drug lords seem to go unpunished while poor children are killed by stray bullets. But poor Filipinos themselves see illegal drug use as a scourge on their communities and voted for Duterte when he was the only candidate who seemed to offer a solution.

Duterte appears to have no plans to leave things to a Pacquiao presidency, however. For months, he has plotted a vice presidential bid that would allow him to essentially continue governing under a closely allied president. His own faction of the PDP-Laban party is backing Duterte’s longtime aide, Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, who analysts believe would do Duterte’s bidding. The president’s daughter, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, has also been floated as a candidate. A shift into the vice presidential seat would carry the added benefit of letting Duterte avoid prosecution and keeping ICC investigators off of the archipelago.

The ICC will still probe the Philippines, even if its investigators are barred from the country. Testimonies from witnesses would likely be taken in neighboring countries or at The Hague, where the ICC is based. The court is no stranger to the circumstance; it’s frequently been blocked from target countries. The ICC is currently investigating possible war crimes by Israel and the Palestinians in occupied Palestinian territories despite Israel’s refusal to cooperate.

But the odds remain low that Duterte will ever see the inside of a courtroom in The Hague, let alone face consequences for the deadly drug war. The ICC has convicted just five men for war crimes and crimes against humanity, all African militia leaders, and the key players in Duterte’s ever-shifting balance of alliances – the United States, China, and Russia – are not members of the ICC.

Tellingly, the United Nations had several of its own chances to open investigations into extrajudicial killings in the Philippines. It declined to do so, saying last year it would instead support the country through “technical assistance,” such as gathering data on police killings. Legislation in the United States Congress aimed at making arms sales conditional on Manila’s human rights record has also repeatedly stalled.

The ICC has previously estimated that between 12,000 and 30,000 civilians were extrajudicially killed between July 2016 and March 2019. The odds are in favor of Duterte getting away with it.