A Humanitarian Crisis Looms Over Afghanistan

More than three months since the Taliban took over Kabul, and despite their numerous efforts to present their government as the new Afghan regime, the international community is not yet ready to recognize or offer the Taliban any substantial financial assistance. The world continues to demand that the Taliban fulfill its promise of forming an inclusive government and offer convincing evidence that the group doesn’t have ties with militant groups like al-Qaida anymore.

While the world is not forthcoming in supporting the Taliban regime, Pakistan is determined to do everything it can to ensure that the group, despite its faults, succeeds. If anything, Pakistan’s unconditional support for the Taliban, without questioning the group’s militant ideology or links with other extremist groups, is only making the world more suspicious of Islamabad’s objectives in Afghanistan and the wider region. As the Taliban regime becomes more vindictive domestically and goes after former regime loyalists, Pakistan’s financial support won’t be enough to avert the looming humanitarian crisis in the country.

Pakistan’s desperation to see the Taliban regime recognized internationally is evident from its mounting diplomatic efforts to get Afghanistan’s financial assets released to the new rulers. Islamabad is using all available forums, including the United Nations, to convince the international community that the Taliban should be able to access the Afghan assets frozen internationally to run their government and address the mounting humanitarian crisis.

It is estimated that Pakistan, a country running on foreign aid and loans, has pledged a whopping $280 million worth of economic support to the Taliban so far. No other country in the region, including China and Russia, has committed this much financial support to the Taliban. Pakistan has nearly ended taxes on all imports from Afghanistan and is actively offering all sorts of financial aid to the Taliban regime. The Taliban now have easy access to Pakistan’s banking sector and personnel to manage their financial affairs.

Pakistan is perhaps the only country that has offered legitimacy to the Taliban regime by accepting a Taliban-appointed diplomatic envoy into the country. Pakistan is also the only country that has invited the Taliban’s foreign minister for an official visit. Pakistan’s military has not only offered to train a new Afghan army, but may also be ready to equip it with Pakistan-made weapons.

Pakistan is doing all of this without addressing the international community’s concerns regarding the possibility of terrorism in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime. For the international community, Pakistan’s all-out support for the Taliban regime only manifests Islamabad’s decades-long efforts to bring the group to power and help fortify its footing. Pakistan has only talked about the need for an inclusive government in Afghanistan at multilateral forums; Pakistani officials have hardly said anything to the Taliban at the bilateral level.

Afghanistan’s economy has come to a near standstill since the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul more than three months ago. The foreign aid that had kept the country’s economy afloat for years is not flowing anymore. Thousands of jobs that were directly and indirectly linked to the international military presence and that of other foreign organization in the county, have all dried up.

There is increasing evidence that suggests that the Taliban wouldn’t mind seeing a humanitarian crisis if that is what it takes for financial aid to start flowing to Afghanistan again. The Taliban leadership is busy policing women and beating people across the country, and not seriously addressing the looming food crisis, which could leave half the country starving this winter. For the Taliban, the stability of their military machine and regime is more important than the lives of Afghans.

In September, the Taliban organized a military parade, which was led by the group’s suicide bombers, displaying car bombs, barrel bombs, vest explosives, mines, and other weapons. The parade was broadcast on Afghan state TV. In October, the Taliban held a military parade using U.S.-made armored vehicles and helicopters in an exhibition that showed the group’s ongoing “transformation from an insurgent force to a regular standing army.” These are not sights the international community wants to see when deciding on the question of resuming aid to Afghanistan.

For many, the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan is akin to Pakistan’s return to power in Afghanistan. The perception that aid and financial support offered to the Taliban could end up in Islamabad is not without a grain of truth. Already, there have been reports that the Taliban are selling weapons to Pakistan that were left behind by U.S. and Afghan troops. It is clear from Pakistan’s support to the Taliban that Islamabad doesn’t mind the fact that the group still has thousands of suicide bombers and with some of its factions, particularly the Haqqani Network, maintaining ties with groups like al-Qaida.

In fact, Pakistan is seeking the support of the Taliban and the Haqqani Network to strike a peace deal with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban.

In this context, no other country would want the Afghan Taliban to have access to billions of dollars’ worth of Afghan state assets frozen abroad. It is perhaps one of the reasons why U.S. senators have presented a bill that seeks to probe Pakistan’s alleged role in Afghanistan before and after the fall of Kabul in August. The legislation also requires “an assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the September 2021 offensive of the Taliban against the Panjshir Valley and the Afghan resistance.”

This essentially means that Pakistan is stuck with a monster it groomed next door. Islamabad is not only going to pour in funds from its debt-ridden economy to help the Taliban run their regime, but will also face the ire of the international community if Afghanistan becomes the source of another militant attack against the U.S. or elsewhere in future.

The Taliban’s forces and commanders across the country are killing former regime officials with impunity. This development is bound to drive the group’s opponents to find common cause. There are reports that military officials from the previous regime are turning to the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK) to bolster their chance of survival against the Taliban. 

It is unlikely that the Taliban’s government is going to be recognized anytime soon or will have access to generous financial support from the international community. This essentially means that millions of Afghans will not only be forced into poverty in the coming months, but have to prepare for a season of fighting between the Taliban and other groups when spring comes in 2022.

This development will have far reaching implications for Pakistan as well, as Islamabad remains unable to convince the Taliban that they alone cannot rule the country. Pakistan has brought to power a group that will eventually devor its master in one way or the other.