New Colors, Old Names, and Feuding Families in Philippine Presidential Race

The Philippines’ electoral rolls are finally closed. According to the Philippines’ Commission on Elections, there are 97 candidates for president, 29 for vice president, and 176 for senators. This list still includes “nuisance candidates” who are expected to be disqualified from running in the 2022 elections, but we can already identify the major contenders in the presidential race.

The deadline for candidacy filing was on October 8, but the last day for substitutions was November 15. Those who met the October 8 deadline to declare their presidential candidacies included Vice President Leni Robredo, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, Senator Manny Pacquiao, Senator Bato Dela Rosa, Senator Panfilo Lacson, and former Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (commonly known as “Bongbong”). Dela Rosa was running under PDP-Laban, the ruling party headed by President Rodrigo Duterte. Everybody knew at the time that it was a tentative list, since new candidates could still be accommodated through the controversial process of substitution, which Duterte infamously did in 2015.

Sure enough, a wave of substitutions took place days before November 15. Among the notable substitutions included presidential daughter Sara Duterte, who filed her candidacy for vice president. Meanwhile, Senator Christopher “Bong” Go decided to run for president with the backing of President Duterte. Go became the candidate of the ruling party after Dela Rosa withdrew his candidacy. The biggest surprise was President Duterte’s decision to run for senator despite his earlier announcement that he would be retiring from politics after the end of his term in June 2022.

Go, a former aide of Duterte, will be running against formidable rivals. So far, the man to beat based on unofficial pre-election surveys is Marcos, the son and namesake of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos who ruled the country for two decades until he was ousted by the People Power revolution in 1986. Marcos Jr. lost a vice presidential bid in 2016, yet he remained in the political spotlight and is now in fact leading in several opinion polls.

Duterte can be credited for the recent restoration of the Marcos name since he allowed the remains of the late dictator to be buried at the Heroes’ Cemetery in 2016, in addition to repeatedly honoring the legacy of the Martial Law era. This led many to assume that Marcos Jr. would easily get the endorsement of Duterte and the ruling party. The Marcos-Duterte alliance was confirmed when Davao Mayor Sara Duterte endorsed Marcos Jr. in October before later agreeing to be his vice presidential candidate.

But it turned out that this alliance did not have the blessing of the elder Duterte, who even threatened to run against his own daughter before deciding to run for senator at the last minute. Duterte then rallied members of the ruling party to support Go for president and his daughter Sara for vice president. In several televised speeches, he attacked Marcos Jr. as a weak leader and unfit to rule the country. He also indirectly accused Marcos Jr. of being a cocaine user. Duterte could also use his influence to cancel or disqualify the candidacy of Marcos Jr., who faces several petitions questioning his eligibility as a candidate based on his record as a convicted tax evader.

Go may be Duterte’s candidate, but Marcos Jr. could count on the support of Sara Duterte to expand his vote base. Sara was recently elected chairperson of Lakas, the political party of former President Gloria Arroyo. This is an indication of a brewing merger involving prominent political families with solid constituencies.

But Marcos Jr. should not think that the presidency is now within his reach. He was also the frontrunner in the vice presidential race in 2016, yet he lost to then-Congresswoman Leni Robredo. Their rematch has roused Robredo supporters, who donned the color pink as her political symbol. Since announcing her intention to run for president in October, Robredo has succeeded in sparking a pink tide across the country, led by individuals who are against the continuation of the Duterte dynasty and the restoration of the Marcoses. Robredo defeated Marcos Jr. in 2016; can she do it again in 2022?

The challenge for Robredo is to unite the opposition. This would mean talking to Mayor Moreno, Senators Lacson and Pacquiao, and labor leader Leody de Guzman in order to field a single candidate who cab challenge the administration candidate Go and the Marcos-Duterte tandem. There may be cracks in the ruling coalition, but a splintered opposition will work in favor of both Duterte and Marcos Jr.

Despite the growing popularity of the pink movement initiated by the Robredo camp, the clamor for a united opposition has persisted, since it is the only viable way to chip away at the commanding lead of Marcos-Duterte. These voices include activists who were tortured and jailed during the Martial Law era and concerned citizens who are already exasperated with the Duterte government.

The race to the presidency has already begun, although official campaigning is still three months away. Will the elder Duterte maneuver to derail the Marcos-Sara Duterte tandem? Will Marcos Jr. be allowed to run despite his tax evasion conviction? Will Robredo continue to harness the pink wave? Will the opposition be able to unite? Will a new People Power movement defeat the Marcos-Duterte tandem at the polls? The answer to these questions will define the next six years of Philippine politics.