The US Is Squandering Its COFA Advantage in the Pacific

Alarm bells are ringing in Washington, D.C. over an issue considered to be so vital to U.S. moral and strategic imperatives that congressional foes have joined forces in an effort to resolve it. In a political climate where it seems every issue is charged with rancor and division in Washington, the lack of resolution in mapping out future ties between the U.S. and three Pacific Island nations has brought unlikely congressional partners together.

Why? The drawing up of the future relationships between the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Federated States of Micronesia (Micronesia), and the Republic of Palau (Palau) and the U.S. touches on every priority area for the Biden administration, and Democrats more broadly, as well as deep concerns for Republicans. There are glaring social justice and racial equality issues. Climate change is an uniquely urgent, existential crisis for these low-lying island countries. Marshallese residents in the U.S. have tragically experienced deaths and hospitalizations from COVID-19 at disproportionately high levels, prompting a special CDC inquiry. The pandemic has highlighted mass economic inequities, lack of access to healthcare, and problems with the unique immigration status that citizens from these three countries have in the U.S.

And finally, but by no means least, there are the strategic dimensions of the U.S. relationships. These three nations’ borders cover an immense area of the Pacific Ocean that in the age of acute competition with China is of the highest strategic importance. In addition, Palau and the RMI both host vital military bases. In recent days the Pentagon has announced these nations as possible sites for additional military installations, an eventuality that hinges entirely on the future roadmap of their U.S. relationships.

The reason why there is such alarm in some halls of American power right now is that the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) between the U.S. and these three nations should now be in the advanced stages of renegotiation before they expire in 2023 and 2024 in the case of Palau. Yet there is an unsettling lack of action on this front. In the case of the most complex negotiation, that with the RMI, there have been no formal meetings since December 2020.

Ahead of a bipartisan congressional hearing in October 2021 that focused the issue of the U.S. nuclear legacy in the RMI, a letter was written to the Biden administration requesting urgent action in restarting negotiations on the three compact agreements. At the time of writing, there still have been no developments on this front despite repeated overtures from the three COFA nations. This inaction has created a sharp schism within the U.S. government. On one side is the unlikely coalition of congressional leaders who passionately support a prompt and just resolution to the negotiations. On the other side is the executive branch and several departments – mainly State, Energy, and Interior – that manage critical aspects of the U.S. relationship with the COFA nations relevant to their own area, creating a piecemeal approach. Despite assurances that resolving these compact agreements is “a high priority,” as representatives from the Department of Energy and Office of Insular Affairs with the Department of Interior assured the October 2021 congressional hearing, this is clearly far from the case. The Department of State even declined to send a representative to the hearing.

With fears running sky high in the last month about a Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s ambition to retake Taiwan, it is still nonetheless vital to not forget the critical relationships the U.S. enjoys with its three loyal COFA allies. Of all the complex international issues currently facing the U.S. this one could be characterized as low-hanging fruit, yet it is not receiving its due attention.