Pakistan's New Government Enters Minefield Left by Khan

Pakistan’s new government faces a host of challenges, ranging from threats to internal stability from the ongoing clash among many political and institutional stakeholders to external diplomatic and financial pressures.

After his ouster from office through a no-confidence vote in parliament, former Prime Minister Imran Khan has tried to build a narrative that his government was removed due to external intervention. In addition, Khan claims that many domestic stakeholders, including the Pakistani military, collaborated to oust him.

Pakistan’s National Security Committee has confirmed on two occasions that there was no conspiracy to oust Khan from power. However, Khan, seeing the narrative as a powerful tool to rally crowds, has taken to the streets, describing his political rivals as collaborators, traitors, and Pakistan’s enemies.

As a result Khan has polarized Pakistan’s politics even more. For weeks, the Pakistani military has been subjected to criticism, forcing Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa to hold meetings with corps commanders, formation commanders, and senior serving and retired military officers to explain the decisions made by his institution. The pressure has been such that the military chief has announced that he intends to retire later this year, quashing rumors that he was seeking another extension.

With Pakistan’s most powerful institution stunned, the newly elected government appears to have lost legitimacy in the eyes of millions of Pakistanis. Some believe Khan’s story that the government emerged out of a deal with the United States and other Western countries, despite a lack of evidence. Meanwhile, Khan is not willing to allow his anti-West narrative to die down and is pushing on with the issue to raise pressure.

To undermine the new government’s legitimacy further, Khan has announced that his party will not accept decisions made by new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. All of this has been made worse as the coalition partners involved in the new ruling set up to fight over ministries.

Not even a month into its term, the new government was struggling over key appointments in the foreign ministry. As of April 25, the government had not been able to appoint a foreign minister and Sharif was forced to take back his pick for a special assistant on foreign affairs.

It doesn’t seem that the new government will find much-needed political stability to govern, let alone make difficult policy decisions. Khan has already asked his followers to be ready for a long march against the government. “The actual party has just begun; our campaign will intensify... Wait for my call. I don’t want anything else except early elections," the former premier told his supporters during a rally on April 21 in Lahore.

As Khan pushes the country toward chaos, the military and the new government appear to be planning to ban the former prime minister from politics for life, using the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) foreign funding case. Given that Khan draws thousands of people to his rallies, such a development could plunge the country into civil unrest.

It is unlikely that the new government will complete its remaining constitutional tenure. Khan’s narrative, the coalition partners’ demands, and the existing terrible financial situation mean that it is unlikely that Sharif will be able to carry out needed reforms. As a result, Pakistan’s problems will continue to fester.

Sharif is expected to increase the prices of petroleum and electricity products in the coming days to meet the demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), meaning the new government will face further pressure from the public.

The next general elections are not likely to be held until later this year as the military leadership tries to bring in a new Army chief. One of the reasons behind Khan’s removal was that he wanted to install a highly controversial officer as the chief and faced a backlash because of his obstinance on the issue.

If that is the case, then we may not see an election announcement until November 29, the day current chief Bajwa is due to retire.

However, this schedule may be altered by the PTI’s attempts to undermine the new government and the ruling coalition’s own internal fights. For now, Sharif’s focus will be on putting the country’s economy back on track and reviving the IMF bailout program. Pakistan’s foreign reserves are depleting quickly and the country doesn’t have the funds to cover import bills beyond two months.

Another key priority for Sharif will be to fix ties with the United States and the European Union (EU) and repair the damage done by Khan’s populist anti-West approach. Sharif is expected to cool off anti-U.S. and anti-EU rhetoric in Pakistan, with his efforts focused on keeping underlying issues with the U.S. and Europe away from the public and media spotlight. He will work to reinstate the traditional pro-Washington position of the military where issues of concern are dealt with behind closed doors rather than shouted about at rallies, as Khan did.

The military would likely want Sharif to do his best to ensure that rapprochement with the U.S. and EU results in the easing of Pakistan’s financial and diplomatic crisis. However, he will be careful in his approach as he doesn’t want to be seen as overtly reaching out to the U.S. and EU. That could backfire domestically given that Khan has built a powerful narrative regarding the current ruling coalition working with the U.S. to bring down his regime.

On issues of strategic significance, including certain U.S. demands from Pakistan regarding Afghanistan, Sharif will not go public with any ideas that he may have and will leave it to the military to devise a way forward. Sharif is likely to work very closely with the military and adhere to limits set by them.

The next few months will be tough for Sharif and Pakistan.