The Philippines’ Pink Wave

Vice President Leni Robredo made history in late April when her presidential campaign became the first to ever be endorsed by the political party of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) – which, just one decade ago, was in active conflict with the Philippine government. The Moro group has always stayed out of national politics, instead focusing on peace within its autonomous region in the southern island of Mindanao. But apparently the MILF decided that a Robredo presidency was essential to ensuring its future.

“When we needed allies in Congress, and as vice president of the Philippines, Leni Robredo was there for us,” said Murad Ebrahim, interim chief minister of the Bangasmoro regional government.

The historic endorsement was another sign of how Robredo’s campaign unexpectedly created a patchwork, big-tent network of popular support as it challenged frontrunner Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

As of publishing, Marcos is still expected to prevail in the May 9 election, buoyed by his family’s decades-long campaign whitewashing the brutal reign of his father. He has reached young voters through social media, posting colorful campaign photos and undergoing a full makeover on his popular YouTube channel. He has also leaned heavily on disinformation campaigns that help eradicate public knowledge of his father’s atrocities; some anonymous campaigns have even tried to smear the Robredo family with fabricated, sexually explicit material.

But in the campaign’s last weeks, Robredo’s campaign was gaining a surge of support on the ground from voters clamoring from change after six years of Duterte, whose policies Marcos is likely to adopt. While Duterte was immensely popular throughout his time in office, some of his decisions were polarizing, especially his warmth toward Beijing and disinterest in deepening ties with the United States.

Robredo also embodies hope and positivity that connect with Filipinos who watched Duterte rule with fear. The iron-fisted, trigger-happy president showed dictatorial tendencies from the start by ordering a deadly “war on drugs” that took tens of thousands of lives, frequently threatening to place the country under martial law, and accusing vast leftist conspiracies of plotting his ouster.

But when the coronavirus pandemic hit, Duterte threw the Philippines into a series of punishing lockdowns that slowed its growing economy and sent unemployment skyrocketing in a country where many people live week-to-week. Duterte became a more reclusive presence, appearing only for irregular televised press conferences that usually devolved into rants and threats toward his perceived enemies.

At one time, Duterte was expected to essentially hand-pick his successor, likely his daughter, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte, or his longtime aide, Christopher “Bong” Go. Instead, his daughter ran for vice president and Marcos – a staunch ally of Duterte whose bond with the president had grown uneasy – emerged as the frontrunner.

But as the election approached, Robredo was touring the country holding massive rallies of frenzied supporters clad in pink, and had become the main target of both disinformation campaigns and traditional political attacks from Marcos-supporting rivals. Her supporters believed her late surge in popularity made the Marcos camp afraid.

“What’s surprising here is that there has been no survey so far where Robredo is leading, and yet among all the candidates, she’s the one taking all the hits from the other camps,” Robredo’s spokesman Barry Gutierrez told Rappler. “To us, it’s probably because we have the clear momentum.”

As of publishing, polls still projected that Marcos would win in a landslide. In a survey by Pulse Asia at the end of March, Marcos was leading with 56 percent of the vote, with Robredo trailing at just 24 percent. Marcos also led in all but two Philippine regions.

Polls in the Philippines can be unpredictable, but as election day drew near, these was a sense that all the hope around Robredo’s campaign may be just that – a dream for more humane, empathetic governance that, for the country at large, remains out of grasp. But even under a Marcos presidency, Leni’s pink wave will certainly form a strong opposition movement.

Marcos knows better than anyone what that could mean.