Can the US Respond to the Pacific’s Rise and Woes?

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings back the tensions of the Cold War, China’s foray into the Pacific Islands is bringing back memories of World War II. It’s a reminder of the strategic importance of some of the smallest island nations in the world amid the realignment of the regional order of the Indo-Pacific. The signing of a security pact between China and Solomon Islands has underscored the geographical leverage the oft-neglected island states now have in defining security more broadly.

The question now is how much the United States is prepared to invest in building relations with countries including Samoa (population of around 200,000), Tonga (around 100,000), and Nauru (just 11,000) – if it is willing to make serious efforts at all.

The signing of a security treaty between China and Solomon Islands in April marked the first such deal made by Beijing in the Pacific, with the possibility of the Chinese boosting its military foothold closer to Australia. Solomon Islands is merely the beginning of Beijing’s enhanced presence in the Southern Pacific. A proposal to build a port in Vanuatu is in the works, and talks are underway to boost security cooperation between Beijing and a number of other Pacific island countries, including Fiji. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a sweeping tour of the region in late May, ongoing as of this writing, to further demonstrate China’s commitment to engagement.

Beijing’s intentions for the region at a time of heightened tensions between the United States and China have been unsettling not just for Washington, but for the region at large. It has undoubtedly been an issue of significant concern for Australian voters too, who might not have focused as much attention on foreign policy issues were it not for the increasing threat China poses to Canberra. Indeed, during the latest Australian election – which opposition Labor Party leader Anthony Albanese won against the Liberal Party’s Scott Morrison – attacking the Morrison government’s lack of attention to Solomon Islands was certainly part of Albanese’s campaign focus. The fact that much attention during the campaign was paid to climate change issues, which Australia shares with the island nations vulnerable to rising sea levels, has only boosted Australia’s ties to its island neighbors still further.

While Washington is fully aware of the gravity of the situation, actual actions to mitigate the situation have been less forthcoming. Granted, the White House’s Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell led a U.S. delegation to Solomon Islands in April to manifest Washington’s alarm over the situation. A statement released after the visit declared that “if steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent [Chinese] military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation, the delegation noted that the United States would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly,” without expressing exactly what actions Washington might take should China action to enhance its military presence in the area.

One of Japan’s responses, meanwhile, has been to boost its own diplomatic presence in the region. For instance, while there are only a handful of Japanese residents in the neighboring island of Kiribati, Japan will be establishing an embassy there in response to China’s growing presence. The United States, meanwhile, has yet to establish an embassy in the country.

Still, it is Taiwan that is most concerned about China’s growing presence and influence in the region. The number of countries that recognize Taiwan has been declining rapidly in recent years, and currently stands at 14. Of those, four are based in the South Pacific, namely Tuvalu,  Nauru, Palau, and the Marshall Islands. For Taiwan, the competition to woo the island nations has been heated and long-standing. The urgency for Taipei to ensure that the four countries in the region stay on-side is, however, as much if not more about its own legitimacy and survival as it is about counterbalancing the China threat.

U.S. recognition of the critical role that these countries play does, however, provide a number of opportunities for Washington to exercise its influence in the region in ways that would align with Washington’s own broader interests. The fact that the Biden administration is focused on tackling the challenge of climate change undoubtedly provides an opportunity for closer cooperation between the island nations that face the immediate threat of rising sea levels and the United States. It also provides a unique opportunity to coordinate action with Taiwan in boosting development assistance efforts to those vulnerable countries that are facing an existential threat as a result of environmental changes.

It is, of course, impossible and hardly advisable to try to match China dollar for dollar in providing financial aid to countries worldwide. Still, the fact that the Pacific Islands are small in terms of population makes it easier not only to understand the specific problems they may be facing, but also to provide support for them. The United States should invest in helping these countries become more environmentally resilient, while also bolstering their position in the value chain through new capital and new investment opportunities that would allow them to overcome some long-standing economic challenges.

The need for those nations to be able to be less import-dependent on critical goods including fuel and food, and to become more competitive in their exports such as coconut products, is urgent. The time for more cooperation from Washington, Taipei, and other governments is now.