How Will Marcos Approach China-Philippines Relations?

There was one line in Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s first State of the Nation address, which he delivered on July 25, that received a particularly rousing standing ovation.

“On the area of foreign policy,” Marcos said, “I will not preside over any process that will abandon even a square inch of territory of the Republic of the Philippines to any foreign power.”

Marcos was signaling a shift in foreign policy by using bolder language than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who was cautious not to provoke China over its unlawful presence in Philippine waters of the South China Sea during his six years in office.

But Marcos quickly qualified his position, saying the Philippines “has always been open and welcoming to all our foreign friends and visitors.” And he did not directly mention the 2016 international tribunal ruling in favor of the Philippines over ownership of contested areas of the South China Sea.

During the first month of the Marcos presidency, the late dictator’s son has forged a mostly anodyne path as he seeks to balance his country’s economic ties with China and its security relationship with the United States. It’s a marked contrast from the Duterte administration, which frequently provoked the U.S. while signing onerous, unpopular, and largely ineffective loan deals with China to fund its infrastructure objectives.

China wasted little time courting Marcos, sending Vice President Wang Qishan, a top aide to leader Xi Jinping, to Marcos’ inauguration in a clear sign of the archipelago’s importance to Beijing. The next week, Marcos met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Manila, who praised the new leader for his “commitment to pursuing friendly policy toward China.”

Marcos has called China the Philippines’ strongest partner, but he has refused to shun ties with the United States and has spoken by phone with President Joe Biden, along with several other high-ranking U.S. officials. The U.S. has reassured Marcos that he would enjoy full immunity should he visit Washington, even though his family faces multiple charges of contempt and corruption in U.S. courts.

Marcos also struck a first blow to Duterte’s legacy of extravagant loan agreements by ordering the transport ministry to renegotiate two deals forged with China for railway projects worth $4.9 billion. The ministry has said the Chinese government “failed to act on the funding requests” made by the Duterte administration for two railway projects in Luzon and a third in Mindanao.

The railway projects already stood as examples of how Chinese pledges to invest in Philippine infrastructure under Duterte had provided few results – even though they had convinced Duterte to suspend military agreements with the U.S. and forge closer ties with China.

Duterte had envisioned China’s Belt and Road Initiative as a perfect partner for his own Build, Build, Build infrastructure plan, but of the railways, roads, airports, and dams China had promised to deliver, few have come to fruition. He was also unable to strike a deal on joint oil exploration with China in disputed areas of the South China Sea.

Toward the end of his time in office, Duterte had started to move away from Beijing and reinforce his country’s traditionally strong ties with Washington. Manila restored defense agreements, endorsed the AUKUS regional security pact, and expanded the joint military exercises Duterte had suspended in past years.

While Marcos has spoken of defending national sovereignty, he has yet to face a real test in forging ties with China while protecting his country’s own territorial interests. A group of senators has urged Marcos to resume bilateral talks with China on South China Sea oil and gas development, as the Philippines sees skyrocketing oil prices due to inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Joint exploration, said Senator Robin Padilla, would not conflict with the Philippines’ assertion of sovereignty in the South China Sea. But as the Philippines faces the same economic and energy crunches as the rest of the world, Marcos may find himself forced to compromise on his own country’s territorial integrity to keep Beijing happy.