US Hopes for a Post-Abe Japan

On July 8, former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo was gunned down in broad daylight during a campaign stop for a fellow member of the Liberal Democratic Party. The violent death was especially unexpected in a country that has one of the tightest gun control measures in the world, and yet life in Tokyo quickly returned to normal within days after the assassination.

When it comes to U.S. relations with Japan, however, Abe’s sudden death will continue to leave a mark. His tragic end has led to a reaffirmation of his legacy and reinforced hopes for the Kishida administration to advance the broader vision for Japan on the international stage that the former premier had articulated.

Abe was one of the few world leaders able to transition relations from President Barack Obama to President Donald Trump successfully. He was, of course, the first head of state to meet with Trump as president-elect, bearing gifts including a golden golf club, no less. It set the tone in the eyes of the public that the Japanese prime minister was prepared to do whatever it took to engage and align with the United States.

Since his death, there has been a surge of support within Japan for the late premier’s achievements during his eight years in office, including his vision for a Japan with greater global presence. A Japan that is willing to take on a more proactive role in promoting regional security and economic stability, as Abe had advocated, is certainly in line with what Washington needs from Tokyo moving forward.

When Abe retired in 2020, the initial fear was that a post-Abe Japan would see a revolving door of leaders, as had been the case from 2006 to 2012, when the country had six prime ministers in as many years. The fact that Suga Yoshihide, Abe’s immediate successor, was in office for only a year raised speculations about a return to political instability. By delivering a sweeping victory for his party and securing a majority in the latest upper house elections two days after Abe’s death, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has been able to shake off doubts about his staying power. In fact, as the LDP has control of both the houses of the Diet, Kishida will not have to call an election until 2025, and his administration is expected to have the mandate to push through a slew of new laws.

A stable Kishida government that will continue Abe’s vision for Japan to take on a greater role in addressing cross-border issues has been welcomed by Washington. Kishida’s push to increase the nation’s defense spending to 2 percent of GDP, for instance, is in line with the Biden administration’s call for allies in both Asia and Europe to bolster their military capabilities. For Washington, Tokyo’s willingness to shoulder a greater burden to promote stability in the region is welcomed. As tensions with China are expected to only intensify, the United States needs Japan to have the will as well as the capability to be an ever more reliable ally in the region.

That means it is in Washington’s interest to have Tokyo continue to pursue the foreign policy roadmap that Abe had laid out – for the most part. One of the glaring weaknesses of Abe’s legacy, however, has been the downward spiral in relations between Tokyo and Seoul. Ironically, Abe’s passing may actually provide the impetus for the newly elected Yoon Suk Yeol presidency to improve relations with Japan.

In fact, the two countries held their first bilateral foreign ministers’ meeting in Tokyo in five years only days after the assassination. While there was no major breakthrough in the meeting between Japan’s Hayashi Yoshimasa and South Korea’s Park Jin, the fact that the foreign ministers met in person to discuss a wide-ranging agenda, including the compensation of Koreans forced into labor during World War II, is a significant breakthrough in itself – and one that would not have been possible had Abe remained in office.

Japan under Abe had been the most reliable partner for the United States in the region. Washington’s expectations will be for the Kishida administration to continue being a reliable partner that can also act as a bridge-builder between the United States and its key allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific. By delivering a solid win in the May elections, Kishida has certainly delivered on Washington’s need for a stable Japan, and he has also made clear that the country will continue to work closely together with Washington on key issues, including economic security, confronting the China challenge, and facing down Russia. For Washington, the next task that Kishida will have to tackle is to improve ties with Seoul and strengthen the U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral relationship.