Japan Now Sees Russia as a Serious Security Threat

In its latest defense white paper, Japan expressed grave concern about Russia’s continuing aggression against Ukraine and cautioned that “unilateral changes to the status quo by force” shake the foundation of the entire international order.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 “is a serious violation of international law prohibiting the use of force. There are concerns that the effects of such unilateral changes to the status quo by force may extend to the Indo-Pacific,” said the Ministry of Defense in its 2022 Defense of Japan White Paper, which was released on July 22.

This is the first time the ministry has issued such a statement on Russia in its defense white papers. In addition, the 501-page paper also noted that “closer attention together with concern must be continuously paid to Russia’s increasing military movements in the Far East,” including on disputed islands in the Kuril archipelago, which Japan calls its Northern Territories and Russia refers to as the Southern Kurils.

The longstanding feud relates to a few islands (Iturup/Etorofu, Kunashir/Kunashiri, and Shikotan) and the rocky Habomai islets, all of which Russia seized after World War II. Japan continues to claim the islands as its rightful territory.

The latest Japanese defense paper is in line with remarks made by Japanese Prime Kishida Fumio and other G-7 leaders in Elmau in southern Germany in late June, when they strongly condemned Russia’s aggression.

The white paper also said that Japan is paying close attention to Moscow’s growing military cooperation with Beijing, noting that 10 vessels of the Chinese and Russian navies conducted their first-ever joint patrols in international waters east of Japan in the Western Pacific in October last year. The joint naval force transited through the 20-kilometer-wide Tsugaru Strait, located between Japan's main islands of Honshu and Hokkaido.

The paper also noted that six Chinese and Russian strategic bombers flew near the Japanese archipelago on May 24 – an apparent demonstration in light of the Quad summit, involving the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States, that was being held the same day.

The white paper also expressed strong concerns over Beijing’s increasing military capabilities, accusing Beijing of “relentlessly” conducting “coercive” and “unilateral” actions aimed at altering the status quo around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Tokyo administers the islands and insists they are an inherent part of the territory of Japan, but China claims they should be under Beijing’s control.

“China is ramping up ‘Civil-Military Fusion’ and intelligentization (use of AI, etc.) with the aim of building a ‘world-class military,’” the paper said, adding that Beijing is accelerating the development of hypersonic glide missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles and improving its maritime force capabilities, such as constructing indigenous aircraft carriers.

“For over 30 years, China has been growing its defense budget at a high level and rapidly improving its military power in qualitative and quantitative terms with focus on nuclear, missile, naval and air forces, which is raising strong concerns,” the paper said.

The white paper also highlighted the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for Japan’s security.

“The stability of the situation surrounding Taiwan is also critical for Japan’s security and must be closely monitored with a sense of urgency while cooperating with the international community,” it said.

Regarding North Korea, the white paper states that military developments in the Northeast Asian country continue to pose “grave and imminent threats” to Japan’s security.

“North Korea has launched a series of ballistic missiles with irregular trajectories and missiles that it calls ‘hypersonic missiles,’ while diversifying its capabilities to include rail-launched and submarine-launched missiles,” the paper said.

It also pointed out that Pyongyang “has repeatedly launched ICBM-class missiles and others at an extremely high frequency, unilaterally escalating provocations against the international community.” The white paper expressed concern that “this pattern has only intensified in recent years, and may potentially lead to further provocative actions,” including a seventh nuclear test.

For the first time, Japan’s defense white paper mentioned the domestic argument over “counterattack capability,” including the capability to attack an enemy’s command and control systems as well as military bases. However, it added that Japan will never conduct any pre-emptive strike prior to an armed attack on its territory, highlighting its continued commitment to defense force only.

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in late April submitted to the government a proposal urging Tokyo to provide the Japan Self-Defense Forces with such a counterattack capability, but also recommending Japan stick to its exclusively defense-oriented policy, defined by the nation’s pacifist post-war constitution.

By the end of 2022, Japan plans to drastically revise three key documents – the National Security Strategy, National Defense Program Guidelines, and the Medium-Term Defense Program – amid a deteriorating security environment, which is forcing Tokyo to look more deeply at its military preparedness.

Morimoto Satoshi, a former Japanese defense minister, said in an interview with The Diplomat in June that Japan is now the only country in the world to face the three most serious military threats: China, Russia, and North Korea.