Who Will Be Pakistan’s Next Army Chief?

Pakistan’s current Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa is set to retire at the end of November 2022. This essentially means that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is only weeks away from making one of the toughest decisions of his tenure. Already, the race to take over the most powerful and influential position in Pakistan is underway.

The controversy over the appointment of the next army chief was one of the reasons for former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s removal from office in April. Khan tried to undermine the army’s institutional autonomy by attempting to bring in his own army chief. The result was very predictable: Khan was not only removed from office but his party now faces a permanent ban from the country’s electoral regulatory body. As of late August, Khan had been charged (but not yet arrested) under Pakistan’s anti-terrorism act (and also charged with contempt, among other things) after delivering yet another fiery speech in which he blasted police officials and a judge over the recent arrest of his chief of staff. The ongoing political instability in the country is partially linked to the incoming army chief’s appointment as political parties vie to have a say in the upcoming decision.

The government is yet to start considering names, but a government official told The Diplomat that consultations in this regard have already started. The seniority list and process for the appointment are very clear.

According to the country’s constitution, the president appoints the army chief on the recommendation of the prime minister. Traditionally, general headquarters sends a short list of the senior-most lieutenant generals to the Ministry of Defense, which then sends the list to the prime minister to pick the best suitable candidate. There are no hard and fast rules on the number of names the army’s general headquarters can send, but the list of potential candidates can be no longer than four. When Sharif makes his decision, it will come down to personal choice, political considerations, the outgoing army chief’s recommendation, consultations with the allies, and other issues.

It is pertinent to note here that Shehbaz Sharif’s elder brother, Nawaz Sharif, had the opportunity to appoint five different army chiefs in his different tenures as prime minister. If the younger Sharif gets to make the next appointment, it will be the Sharif family’s sixth appointment of a army chief in total. However, one cannot say if this experience has been kind to the Sharif family, as they have had to face the wrath of the army chiefs they appoint, including the current one, in the form of removal from government and other punishments. If there is any lesson for the Sharifs, it is this: Do not look for a candidate based on personal choice, rather stick with seniority.

The office of the army chief has so much institutional pressure that when a general is appointed to the post, he immediately loses his individuality as the organizational responsibilities and expectations overwhelm him. In a nutshell, an army chief is most loyal to his institution and bound to protect its interests rather than pleasing politicians or protecting their interests.

As per the current seniority list, Lt. Gen. Asim Munir, Lt. Gen. Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Lt. Gen. Azhar Abbas, Lt. Gen. Nauman Mehmood, and Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed are the top candidates for the post.

As per a Dawn report, Mirza and Abbas remain the top contenders for the army chief post. Within the military, they are well versed in the decision-making processes of the institution. Moreover, both officers have had exceptional careers and have also remained engaged on issues of foreign policy, including the Afghan peace talks, and managing relationships with India and China.

Mehmood is currently serving as the president of the National Defense University. He has also served in the military’s counterintelligence wing, where he was responsible for overseeing several foreign policy issues. The general has also worked with the U.S. during his stint as the commander of Peshawar corps, where he managed security along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Hameed has been widely discussed, but is also one of the reasons for the ongoing controversy involving the incoming appointment. He was considered Khan’s favorite candidate and a key reason for the former premier’s confrontation with current Army Chief Bajwa. Hameed has extensive experience in managing militancy domestically and regionally and also widely coordinated with intelligence agencies globally, including the United States’. However, controversy involving his name may weaken his candidature.

Lastly, Munir is someone who should be watched closely. Munir is an outstanding officer and considered one of the close aides of the current army chief. He has also served as the director general of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and commanded the Afghanistan-focused X corps. It would not be a surprise if the current army chief recommended him as a replacement.

Regardless of who takes over as the new army chief, the decision will have significant implications for the country. The new chief will essentially decide when the next elections are to be held and whether Khan should be allowed to compete, let alone be given a free and fair election. Regionally, the new chief will have a lot to do when it comes to ongoing talks with the TTP, the relationship with the Afghan Taliban, ties with New Delhi, and Pakistan’s troubled relationship with China and the United States.

The appointment of a new army chief in November will mean a lot for Pakistan’s political stability and relations with the world.