Ronald Mendoza

October 8 marks Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s 100th day in power. The son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the younger Marcos’ election in May 2022 capped off a stunning comeback by a political family that had been forced into exile by popular protests in 1986, known as the EDSA Revolution. Marcos Jr.’s election also sparked fears among human rights activists that the Marcos family’s return to power could mean a return to the abuses of the former Martial Law period.

Over three months into the new president’s term, have these fears become reality? The Diplomat’s Shannon Tiezzi interviewed Ronald Mendoza, professor and dean at the Ateneo School of Government in the Philippines, to get a sense of the Marcos administration’s governance style and the future of Philippine democracy.

As the Marcos Jr. administration marks its first 100 days in power, has there been more continuity with or change from the previous Duterte administration?

Due to his lack of engagement in the candidates’ debates, unsurprisingly there was some degree of uncertainty and market anxiety when news broke out of the then-impending Marcos victory. At least on the economic front, the appointment of the economic team helped signal that there would likely be strong credibility and continuity in the economic management and reforms pursued successfully by the post-EDSA presidents.

In addition, the appointment of well known technocrats and reform advocates (in the Department of Energy, Department of Migrant Workers, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Department of Health) also sent a strong signal that these additional agencies would more likely engage with non-government partners and promote evidence-based policymaking. While some politicians and allies were still appointed by the new administration, it appears that key agencies were given to more credible experts.

Hence overall my sense is that the appointments have been reassuring and trust-building. At this point it appears that the Marcos administration compares more favorably when juxtaposed against the previous administration when it comes to tapping strong and well-known and regarded expertise in the cabinet.

What problems are front-of-mind for the Philippine public? In other words, which issues do Filipinos most want the Marcos administration to address in its six-year term?

If the surveys are a reputable source of information on “what Filipinos really want,” then repeatedly surveys appear to emphasize that Filipinos want actions on the economic front – produce more jobs and livelihood opportunities; control inflation; and improve the national economy (notably in the past two years of pandemic and over-reliance on lockdowns). Additional issues include more effective control of COVID-19 and vaccination; finding ways to raise wages; and addressing education and transport challenges. In addition, advancing the country's sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea and fighting graft and corruption are also among the priority areas.

In my opinion, an inclusive recovery from COVID-19 pandemic and navigating the global. economic supply shocks (some due to the Ukraine war) are among the key challenges facing this administration urgently.

There are some groups in their coalition which seek deeper governance reforms such as through constitutional reforms and a federal structure of government (to enhance representation in an over-centralized governance set-up). It is less clear whether Marcos will prioritize these deeper types of reforms (which may have fiscal and governance implications).

Prior to his swearing-in, there were few specifics about what to expect from Marcos Jr.’s economic policy. It’s still early days, but how has his administration addressed the country’s economic woes thus far?

The Marcos administration has inherited many challenges that were unresolved and poorly handled by the last administration. Some government and regulatory agencies could have been reformed but were not – and the global food supply shocks are exposing the weaknesses in these institutions right now. There will be difficult decisions ahead, and the role of evidence and the system of checks-and-balances – supported by transparency and debate – will be critical. One hopes that the Marcos administration will not shirk from this.

You’ve written before about the dangers of “false nostalgia” regarding the reality of Martial Law under Marcos Sr. Now that his son controls the presidency, what new developments have there been in terms of historical revisionism?

The rise of another Marcos (Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.) as president of the Philippines underscores the continued deep imbalance in the Philippines’ system of political and economic governance. Nevertheless, his appointment of known technocrats and reformists to join his cabinet does signal important entry points for engaging the reform process. Perhaps more subtly, it also signals the new Marcos administration’s openness to continue to build on post-EDSA reforms, notably on the economic front.

However, whether and to what extent more economic policy reforms will this time be augmented by some deep political reforms remains to be seen. It does appear that the broad arc of history that bookends the 1980s and 2010s with Aquinos (i.e. President Corazon Aquino and President Benigno “Noynoy”Aquino, III.), and the 1960s and 2020s with Marcoses (i.e. President Ferdinand Marcos and President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.) signals a continued search for balance of power and palpable development results in Philippine democracy. An optimistic lens may note that the contemporary Philippines is no longer the basket-case of Asia, with many reforms and institutions that posit better prospects. A less optimistic assessment may point out the “nostalgia loops” that two Aquinos and two Marcoses seem to signal – along with the country’s less successful effort to break from the past and chart a new way forward for Philippine democracy.

One thing is more clear: Another Marcos at the helm exposes how the country is still in search of an economic and political governance crossroad that more effectively translates governance – “Philippines style” – into more inclusive development and true people power.

Civil society was vocal about the dangers of a Marcos presidency, but he was swept into power in a landslide victory nonetheless. What options do civil society organizations have for maintaining rights and democracy during the next six years?

Civil society in the Philippines needs to evolve in order to maintain relevance and meet the challenges brought about by populism and mis/dis/mal-information. Part of the bigger challenge right now is to reconnect with our people, the bulk of whom are no longer the poor, but an emerging but still quite vulnerable low-income middle class. They will face some different challenges when compared to the poor, and their sentiments on social, political and economic policy will likely be different. Civil society needs to navigate this new terrain if it hasn’t already begun to do so.

What do you think the future holds for the Philippines’ democracy?

There are many hard lessons to be learned, and it is important for pro-democracy forces to take stock, recalibrate, and where possible, engage the new administration.