[{"_1":2,"_335":-5,"_336":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_16":17,"_333":334},"root",{"_5":6,"_14":15},"fb",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":8},"apiKey","AIzaSyAdxqOaB63feHHqSm_nZCKsSHpSAcxkct8","authDomain","thediplomat.firebaseapp.com","projectId","firebase-thediplomat","appId","ga",true,"routes/$issue",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"slug","2023-01","path","/2023-01","issue",{"_24":25,"_26":27,"_28":29,"_30":31,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":39,"_40":41,"_42":43},"eid","-NJtPBCYHR5Q8VND_KLY","title","2023: What to Expect","description","Welcome to the January 2023 issue of The Diplomat. This month, our cover story highlights the trends and events to watch across the Asia-Pacific in 2023. We also revisit the public discontent behind Kazakhstan’s “Bloody January” last year, delve into Nepal’s political landscape after its general election, and probe the future of the U.S. tech competition with China. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.","masthead","

\n Publisher\n Diplomat Media, Inc.
\n 3033 Wilson Blvd
\n Suite 700
\n Arlington, VA 22201
\n United States of America\n

\n Publisher\n James Pach\n

\n Editor-in-Chief\n Shannon Tiezzi\n

\n Managing Editor\n Catherine Putz\n

\n Southeast Asia Editor\n Sebastian Strangio\n

\n South Asia Editor\n Sudha Ramachandran\n

\n Contributing Editors\nKavita Chowdhury
\nBonnie Girard
\nShihoko Goto
\nJames Guild
\nBrian Hioe
\nSara Hsu
\nLuke Hunt
\nUmair Jamal
\nMercy A. Kuo
\nRathindra Kuruwita
\nShafi Md Mostofa
\nPatricia O’Brien
\nMina Pollmann
\nMong Palatino
\nSantosh Sharma Poudel
\nRajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
\nTita Sanglee
\nMitch Shin
\nThisanka Siripala
\nPaolo Sorbello
\nTroy Stangarone
\nTakahashi Kosuke
\nGrant Wyeth\n

\n Design & Code\n Stefan Yanku\n

","number",98,"date","January 2023","month",1,"year",2023,"status","rdy","toc",[44,60,68,88,98,128,153,183,213,243,268,288,313],{"_24":45,"_46":47,"_26":48,"_49":50},"LTR","priority",0,"Letter","pages",[51],{"_24":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":58,"_40":41,"_26":59},"-NJtPBn_xbhIYx8z8nVK","lead","

2022 was a wild ride. What’s in store for the Asia-Pacific in 2023?

","model","story","preview","letter-from-the-editors","Letter from the Editors",{"_24":61,"_46":37,"_26":62,"_49":63},"CVRS","Cover Story",[64],{"_24":65,"_53":66,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":67,"_40":41,"_26":27},"-NJtPBnvlDrnzvEryyjO","

From lingering challenges (the Ukraine war, most notably) to scheduled summits and elections, here’s what to watch for in the new year.

","2023-what-to-expect",{"_24":69,"_46":70,"_26":71,"_49":72},"LDS",2,"Leads",[73,78,83],{"_24":74,"_53":75,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":76,"_40":41,"_26":77},"-NJtPBnvlDrnzvEryyjP","

The time has come to re-evaluate Kazakhstan’s social contract. Is President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev up to the challenge?

","the-unraveling-of-kazakhstans-social-contract","The Unraveling of Kazakhstan’s Social Contract",{"_24":79,"_53":80,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":37,"_18":81,"_40":41,"_26":82},"-NJtPBnwcn6zWRJCOppY","

Nepal’s political landscape after the November 2022 election looks disturbingly familiar – but there are some signs change is coming.

","can-nepal-achieve-political-stability","Can Nepal Achieve Political Stability?",{"_24":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":70,"_18":86,"_40":41,"_26":87},"-NJtPBnwcn6zWRJCOppZ","

New controls, if maintained, enforced, and ultimately supported by allies, have the potential to reshape the world’s most consequential economic relationships.

","bargaining-chips-us-allies-and-export-controls","Bargaining Chips: US Allies and Export Controls",{"_24":89,"_46":90,"_26":91,"_49":92},"INT",3,"Interview",[93],{"_24":94,"_53":95,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":96,"_40":41,"_26":97},"-NJtPBnwcn6zWRJCOpp_","

The Australian Labor Party has positioned itself well politically to pursue an ambitious climate agenda.

","robert-glasser-on-australias-turn-to-climate-action","Robert Glasser on Australia’s Turn to Climate Action",{"_24":99,"_46":100,"_26":101,"_49":102},"CHN",4,"China",[103,108,113,118,123],{"_24":104,"_53":105,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":106,"_40":41,"_26":107},"-NJtPBnx9tq7xWs0TmJ8","

With Taiwan entering its presidential campaign season, 2023 could be even more contentious than 2022.

","cross-strait-relations-in-2023","Cross-Strait Relations in 2023",{"_24":109,"_53":110,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":37,"_18":111,"_40":41,"_26":112},"-NJtPBnx9tq7xWs0TmJ9","

Jiang is often given credit for China’s rapid economic growth in the 1990s. But perhaps he should be more remembered for a brutal crackdown.

","jiang-zemin-in-the-final-analysis","Jiang Zemin: In the Final Analysis",{"_24":114,"_53":115,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":116,"_40":41,"_26":117},"-NJtPBny82Ye13PvpoaD","

Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Riyadh resulted in a rare diplomatic rebuke from Tehran.

","can-china-continue-to-balance-between-saudi-arabia-and-iran","Can China Continue to Balance Between Saudi Arabia and Iran?",{"_24":119,"_53":120,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":121,"_40":41,"_26":122},"-NJtPBny82Ye13PvpoaE","

Current discussions often highlight the role of the vocal protests in late November in shifting China’s zero COVID policy. But the shift had already begun in early November.

","decoding-chinas-covid-19-policy-u-turn","Decoding China’s COVID-19 Policy U-Turn",{"_24":124,"_53":125,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":126,"_40":41,"_26":127},"-NJtPBny82Ye13PvpoaF","

As one of the few top-level meetings held since China’s COVID U-turn, the CEWC’s messaging is especially important this year.

","interpreting-chinas-2022-central-economic-work-conference","Interpreting China’s 2022 Central Economic Work Conference",{"_24":129,"_46":130,"_26":131,"_49":132},"NEA",5,"Northeast Asia",[133,138,143,148],{"_24":134,"_53":135,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":136,"_40":41,"_26":137},"-NJtPBo-T_npLy64K7eM","

The war in Ukraine has driven a reassessment of national security and economic relationships in multiple countries, North and South Korea included.

","the-effects-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-on-the-korean-peninsula","The Effects of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on the Korean Peninsula",{"_24":139,"_53":140,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":141,"_40":41,"_26":142},"-NJtPBo0IQsimsFxlYw2","

Aside from visits by high-ranking LDP politicians, there are equally important, if less high-profile, changes Japan can make.

","how-can-japan-help-taiwan","How Can Japan Help Taiwan?",{"_24":144,"_53":145,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":146,"_40":41,"_26":147},"-NJtPBo0IQsimsFxlYw3","

The three countries discussed ways to strengthen their joint commitment in the face of North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.

","south-korea-us-japan-cement-trilateral-response-to-north-koreas-nuclear-threats","South Korea, US, Japan Cement Trilateral Response to North Korea’s Nuclear Threats",{"_24":149,"_53":150,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":151,"_40":41,"_26":152},"-NJtPBo0IQsimsFxlYw4","

For a regime that has become dependent on crypto to avoid sanctions and steal hard currency, FTX’s collapse couldn’t be more ill-timed.

","the-implications-of-ftxs-collapse-for-north-korea","The Implications of FTX’s Collapse for North Korea",{"_24":154,"_46":155,"_26":156,"_49":157},"SOA",6,"South Asia",[158,163,168,173,178],{"_24":159,"_53":160,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":161,"_40":41,"_26":162},"-NJtPBo1tqc70Iz5FhEu","

Polio cases are being reported again in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where immunization workers battle vaccination resistance and militants’ guns.

","pakistans-war-against-polio-is-difficult-and-dangerous","Pakistan’s War Against Polio Is Difficult and Dangerous",{"_24":164,"_53":165,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":37,"_18":166,"_40":41,"_26":167},"-NJtPBo1tqc70Iz5FhEv","

Opportunities opened up for New Delhi to build influence in its neighborhood.

","india-played-catch-up-with-china-in-south-asia-in-2022","India Played Catch-up With China in South Asia in 2022",{"_24":169,"_53":170,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":171,"_40":41,"_26":172},"-NJtPBo2utf3VRQkzxg2","

The profits may be high, but the risks involved are higher, especially in the context of attacks on Chinese nationals and interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

","how-realistic-are-chinas-plans-to-expand-cpec-to-afghanistan","How Realistic Are China’s Plans to Expand CPEC to Afghanistan?",{"_24":174,"_53":175,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":176,"_40":41,"_26":177},"-NJtPBo2utf3VRQkzxg3","

The December 9 clash near Tawang was only the latest along the increasingly tense China-India border. A lack of clarity on where the border lies foments continued trouble.

","explaining-the-latest-clashes-on-the-sino-indian-border","Explaining the Latest Clashes on the Sino-Indian Border",{"_24":179,"_53":180,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":181,"_40":41,"_26":182},"-NJtPBo2utf3VRQkzxg4","

It is a controversial issue in Indian politics as minorities and opposition parties see it as a vehicle for Hindu majoritarianism.

","the-uniform-civil-code-bill-in-india-whats-at-stake","The Uniform Civil Code Bill in India: What’s at Stake?",{"_24":184,"_46":185,"_26":186,"_49":187},"SEA",7,"Southeast Asia",[188,193,198,203,208],{"_24":189,"_53":190,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":191,"_40":41,"_26":192},"-NJtPBo3cilzjyNu_iP6","

Just as Jakarta restricts physical access to Papua, the online equivalent involves blanketing social media platforms in a haze of vaguely supportive white noise.

","how-indonesia-shapes-online-debate-about-papua","How Indonesia Shapes Online Debate About Papua",{"_24":194,"_53":195,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":37,"_18":196,"_40":41,"_26":197},"-NJtPBo4mOGb1_xRZlTm","

In a first, Chinese maritime fleets are reportedly building up land features in the South China Sea on territory it doesn’t already occupy.

","manila-reacts-after-china-reportedly-builds-land-features-on-philippine-territory","Manila Reacts After China Reportedly Builds Land Features on Philippine Territory",{"_24":199,"_53":200,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":201,"_40":41,"_26":202},"-NJtPBo4mOGb1_xRZlTn","

Vietnam’s proximity to China and lack of strategic depth limit its options in forming security partnerships with other great powers.

","how-vietnam-can-balance-against-china-on-land-and-at-sea","How Vietnam Can Balance Against China, on Land and at Sea",{"_24":204,"_53":205,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":206,"_40":41,"_26":207},"-NJtPBo52agy-4Sm3Zc-","

Anwar Ibrahim has secured the support of a healthy majority, but there are no ironclad guarantees over the longer term.

","malaysian-pm-survives-confidence-vote-stabilizes-government","Malaysian PM Survives Confidence Vote, Stabilizes Government",{"_24":209,"_53":210,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":211,"_40":41,"_26":212},"-NJtPBo52agy-4Sm3Zc0","

Regional engagement has increasingly transcended ASEAN through bilateral, trilateral, and plurilateral initiatives that are outside of the ASEAN framework.

","asean-centrality-in-an-era-of-renewed-power-politics","‘ASEAN Centrality’ in an Era of Renewed Power Politics",{"_24":214,"_46":215,"_26":216,"_49":217},"CEA",8,"Central Asia",[218,223,228,233,238],{"_24":219,"_53":220,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":221,"_40":41,"_26":222},"-NJtPBo52agy-4Sm3Zc1","

In the early weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concerns soared that Central Asia’s migrant workers would suffer too. That’s not what happened.

","what-explains-central-asias-2022-remittance-boom","What Explains Central Asia’s 2022 Remittance Boom?",{"_24":224,"_53":225,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":226,"_40":41,"_26":227},"-NJtPBo6u9tMjexZfjX9","

The journey of Faromuz Irgashev from presidential hopeful to prison underscores Tajikistan’s total descent into authoritarianism.

","what-tajikistans-persecution-of-faromuz-irgashev-really-means","What Tajikistan’s Persecution of Faromuz Irgashev Really Means",{"_24":229,"_53":230,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":231,"_40":41,"_26":232},"-NJtPBo6u9tMjexZfjXA","

Central Asia might actually be interested in Russian gas, but please don’t call it a “union.”

","why-so-much-attention-on-russias-vague-proposal-for-a-gas-union-with-kazakhstan-and-uzbekistan","Why So Much Attention on Russia’s Vague Proposal for a ‘Gas Union’ With Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan?",{"_24":234,"_53":235,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":236,"_40":41,"_26":237},"-NJtPBo6u9tMjexZfjXB","

Kyrgyz students are discovering that a Chinese diploma isn’t a fast track to a high-paying job.

","the-declining-value-of-a-chinese-education-in-kyrgyzstan","The Declining Value of a Chinese Education in Kyrgyzstan",{"_24":239,"_53":240,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":241,"_40":41,"_26":242},"-NJtPBo78y3iQ9hA7BaH","

From the January 2022 summit to the recent NSA meeting, India has ramped up its outreach to Central Asia this year.

","how-india-can-broaden-its-relationships-with-central-asia","How India Can Broaden Its Relationships With Central Asia",{"_24":244,"_46":245,"_26":246,"_49":247},"OCE",9,"Oceania",[248,253,258,263],{"_24":249,"_53":250,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":251,"_40":41,"_26":252},"-NJtPBo78y3iQ9hA7BaI","

After a murky result in the December election, Fiji looks set for its first new prime minister in 16 years.

","after-fijis-election-from-one-coup-leader-to-another","After Fiji’s Election: From One Coup Leader to Another",{"_24":254,"_53":255,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":256,"_40":41,"_26":257},"-NJtPBo8E3BuKikZYW1T","

The NSW government’s “law and order” response to the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant fines on those least able to pay up.

","new-south-wales-pandemic-fines-shed-light-on-policing-problems","New South Wales’ Pandemic Fines Shed Light on Policing Problems",{"_24":259,"_53":260,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":261,"_40":41,"_26":262},"-NJtPBo8E3BuKikZYW1U","

That was the question at play in a recent court case involving a businessman with debts in China and land holdings in New Zealand.

","should-chinese-court-rulings-hold-in-new-zealand","Should Chinese Court Rulings Hold in New Zealand?",{"_24":264,"_53":265,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":266,"_40":41,"_26":267},"-NJtPBo8E3BuKikZYW1V","

Australia has an opportunity to establish itself as a global champion and a safe haven for children and women who have been victims of abuse.

","what-australias-new-law-means-for-hague-convention-parental-child-abduction-cases","What Australia’s New Law Means for Hague Convention Parental Child Abduction Cases",{"_24":269,"_46":270,"_26":271,"_49":272},"USA",10,"US in Asia",[273,278,283],{"_24":274,"_53":275,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":276,"_40":41,"_26":277},"-NJtPBo92Ft-rd5l58L4","

The clash over U.S. trade policy is being closely watched by U.S. allies across Asia and beyond.

","the-spillover-effect-of-south-koreas-ira-problem","The Spillover Effect of South Korea’s IRA Problem",{"_24":279,"_53":280,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":281,"_40":41,"_26":282},"-NJtPBo92Ft-rd5l58L5","

While the platform does face long-term issues, U.S. diplomats should continue using it – rather than ceding Twitter to Chinese influence.

","us-diplomacy-on-twitter-and-why-it-should-remain-there","US Diplomacy on Twitter (and Why It Should Remain There)",{"_24":284,"_53":285,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":286,"_40":41,"_26":287},"-NJtPBo92Ft-rd5l58L6","

The renewed focus on nuclear weapons amid the contest with China raises the risk of nuclear use – and reduces the likelihood of arms control talks.

","bidens-strategic-reviews-implications-for-global-security","Biden’s Strategic Reviews: Implications for Global Security",{"_24":289,"_46":290,"_26":291,"_49":292},"SCR",11,"Security",[293,298,303,308],{"_24":294,"_53":295,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":296,"_40":41,"_26":297},"-NJtPBoAe1dZwPPCjJEK","

Japan’s Self-Defense Force and Coast Guard announced new plans to strengthen cooperation to prepare for a military attack on Japan.

","japan-moves-to-allow-coast-guard-to-defend-the-country-in-a-conflict","Japan Moves to Allow Coast Guard to Defend the Country in a Conflict",{"_24":299,"_53":300,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":301,"_40":41,"_26":302},"-NJtPBoBJJ7_JN24HTOS","

After the recent confirmed launch of a Hwasong-17 missile, it’s time to revisit claims that North Korea “faked” a previous launch.

","did-north-korea-really-fake-an-icbm-test-in-march","Did North Korea Really Fake an ICBM Test in March?",{"_24":304,"_53":305,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":306,"_40":41,"_26":307},"-NJtPBoBJJ7_JN24HTOT","

Indonesia’s post-arrest countering violent extremism programs are intended to help prevent recidivism. What are the system’s current shortcomings?

","after-the-astana-anyar-bombing-a-critical-overview-of-indonesias-cve-system","After the Astana Anyar Bombing: A Critical Overview of Indonesia’s CVE System",{"_24":309,"_53":310,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":311,"_40":41,"_26":312},"-NJtPBoC1k1enHSkgCkz","

Fears of China occupying Diego Garcia have no basis in reality and should not be a pretext for Britain retaining control of the islands.

","no-mauritius-will-not-give-china-a-military-base-on-the-chagos-islands","No, Mauritius Will Not Give China a Military Base on the Chagos Islands",{"_24":314,"_46":315,"_26":316,"_49":317},"ASL",12,"Asia Life",[318,323,328],{"_24":319,"_53":320,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":321,"_40":41,"_26":322},"-NJtPBoWARMs6rOpCkWs","

Can soft power function without power? Yes, and Gandhi’s image on stamps worldwide is a case in point.

","leaving-a-stamp-with-gandhi-on-global-indias-image","Leaving a Stamp (With Gandhi) on Global India’s Image",{"_24":324,"_53":325,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":326,"_40":41,"_26":327},"-NJtPBoWARMs6rOpCkWt","

The authorities could not decide on a clear judgment against a highly fragmented and divided movement. In the space of that hesitation, the public turned the once unthinkable to the art of possible.

","explaining-the-unthinkable-how-the-protest-movement-in-china-took-place","Explaining the Unthinkable: How the Protest Movement in China Took Place",{"_24":329,"_53":330,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":331,"_40":41,"_26":332},"-NJtPBoWARMs6rOpCkWu","

Despite the Indonesian public’s passion for the world game, the “Red and White” have consistently under-performed on the global stage.

","why-cant-a-nation-of-276-million-people-field-a-decent-soccer-team","Why Can’t a Nation of 276 Million People Field a Decent Soccer Team?","routes/$issue.cover",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"actionData","errors"]