A Tale of 2 Diplomats: Is China’s Foreign Policy Changing?

At the tail end of December, China’s Foreign Ministry reshuffled some personnel. Most notably, Qin Gang, formerly the Chinese ambassador to the United States, became the new foreign minister, replacing long-time minister Wang Yi. Wang is now the Chinese Communist Party’s top diplomatic voice, with Qin heading up the government side of China’s foreign policy efforts.

Another move received far less fanfare in Chinese media, but was widely discussed abroad. Zhao Lijian, formerly a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry and the deputy director of Foreign Ministry Information Department, was reassigned to serve as the deputy director of the ministry’s Boundary and Ocean Affairs Department. While officially it’s a lateral career move, it was read by analysts as a demotion, given the low-profile nature of the Boundary and Ocean Affairs Department.

The reassignment of a Foreign Ministry deputy director would not have attracted much attention were it not for Zhao’s status as the most famous of China’s so-called wolf warrior diplomats.

Taken together, Qin’s promotion and Zhao’s sidelining have sparked speculation that Beijing is changing its diplomatic tone – abandoning the hawkish, abrasive approach Zhao made famous and returning to more moderate tactics.

Qin’s promotion was tipped in advance by China watchers: He was the lone diplomat with recent foreign posting experience included on the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee at the 20th Party Congress in October. He is also known to be close to President Xi Jinping, whom Qin worked closely with during a stint handling protocol for the Foreign Ministry; the position meant Qin traveled abroad with Xi.

When Qin’s promotion was made official, many read it as confirmation that China is modulating its diplomatic approach. That would align with more tangible signs of a thaw, including Xi’s breakthrough meetings with U.S. President Joe Biden as well as Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in November. Chinese diplomats are no longer insisting the onus is on the other party to break through the ice, effectively setting preconditions for improved relations. That was the approach in 2020 and 2021, when Beijing issued lists of grievances to both Australia and the United States.

It may indeed be the case that China is turning away from the excesses of wolf warrior diplomacy, amid an uncertain economic future and the sharpened geopolitical edges revealed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, reading Qin’s appointment as proof of this change is a stretch.

Qin himself is not exactly dovish, after all. He served as Foreign Ministry spokesperson before the “wolf warrior” term came into vogue, but still embodied some of those tendencies – particularly the use of insults and sarcasm to deflect criticism. He became a minor celebrity for his retorts and rejoinders to questions during Foreign Ministry press conferences; one former correspondent described him as “contemptuous and charismatic at once” in comments to journalist Lizzi C. Lee.

Finbarr Bermingham, a Europe correspondent for the South China Morning Post, recalled on Twitter that it was Qin who announced China’s sanctions on the EU in 2021 – which he accomplished by summoning European diplomats in the middle of the night, a hugely provocative move in itself.

“EU diplomats said they were told by Qin Gang: ‘Now you shut up. There’s a new boss in town called China. You’re going to obey and we’re going to teach,’” Bermingham wrote.

Qin has taken a much more moderate tone since assuming the post of ambassador to the United States. For example, in his Twitter thread bidding farewell to Washington, D.C., Qin said he was “deeply impressed by so many hard-working, friendly and talented American people that I met” and promised to “support the growth of China-US relations, encourage dialogue, mutual understanding and affinity between the two peoples.”

While that’s welcome rhetoric, we shouldn’t read this as evidence of Qin’s personal tendencies. The more relevant information is that Qin is close to Xi. From his behavior as ambassador we can conclude he was dispatched to Washington with the task of improving relations, not stirring the pot. Similarly, as foreign minister his first priority will be to carry out Xi’s instructions – which, at the moment, appear to be smoothing the waters abroad as China heads into what could be a difficult year. But this ostensibly moderate approach is not set in stone; if Xi changes tack yet again, Qin will follow.

In a similar vein, while Zhao’s new position can be taken as evidence that the “wolf warrior” days are over, there is more to the story as well.

Zhao is perhaps the most famous wolf warrior; he made a name for himself with his outspoken tweets while a mere counselor at the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan. To cite just one instance, he picked a Twitter fight with Susan Rice, the former national security adviser to Barack Obama, over racism in Washington, D.C.

Zhao was then elevated to the post of Foreign Ministry spokesperson. In that role, he leaned heavily into his combative reputation. Zhao spread conspiracy theories that COVID-19 actually originated in the United States and was brought to China by the U.S. Army. He also tweeted an artist’s depiction of an Australian solider slitting the throat of an Afghan child, referencing war crimes committed by Australian forces during the war in Afghanistan. That tweet sparked a diplomatic incident between China and Australia.

Given Zhao’s long history of insults and outright lies, many were happy to interpret his apparent demotion as evidence that his particular strand of undiplomatic diplomacy was on the outs. Certainly, Zhao’s persona is out of step with Beijing’s current foreign policy tone, and it’s conceivable that his image was seen as too tainted to shift with the changing winds. But here, too, the ultimate explanation may lie not with Zhao’s personal proclivities but with his political standing.

Zhao’s wife caused a stir in June 2022, while China was still under the thrall of zero COVID, when she flaunted pictures of a trip to Germany on her social media accounts, noting that she was enjoying the “ordinary life” there. Later, after China relaxed its COVID-19 policies, she complained on social media that it was difficult to find medications to treat fevers.

Meanwhile, Zhao found himself at a rare loss for words when asked about the protests against China’s zero COVID policies. When a Reuters reporter asked on November 29 if Beijing was considering ending zero COVID, Zhao shuffled his papers in silence for nearly 30 seconds before asking the reporter to repeat the question. Then he paused for another 15 seconds before finally giving a one-sentence response. The video made headlines in U.S. and European media outlets, and not in way that reflected well on China’s leadership – or Zhao personally.

It was admittedly a tough question to answer. At the time, no one knew what Beijing would do with zero COVID, although Zhao could hardly give that answer. Combined with Zhao’s wife’s perceived snark toward China’s COVID-19 policies, however, some read tacit support for the protests in his long pause – a rare awkward silence from a man famous for his snappy comebacks.

In the end, then, Qin and Zhao’s fates might be best read not as evidence of a diplomatic change in the winds, but as confirmation that staying on Xi’s good side is the top qualification for any government official in China.