Is Kim Jong Un Preparing His Daughter As His Successor?

In November 2022, North Korea’s main state-controlled media, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), reported on supreme leader Kim Jong Un’s guidance of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. In the released photos, a young girl appeared standing next to Kim’s wife, Ri Sol Ju, and looking at Kim sitting at the launch site. Another photo captured Kim and the young girl walking around the test site together while holding hands.

In the KCNA report, the young girl was called the “most beloved child” of Kim. It was the first unveiling of one of his children in public, and it sparked a wave of speculation about the significance of the reveal.

The young girl is believed to be Kim Ju Ae, whose name was first disclosed by retired NBA star Dennis Rodman after he took a trip to Pyongyang in 2013. According to South Korea’s spy agency, Kim Jong Un has three children; Kim Ju Ae is believed to be his second child. (The oldest child is a son, while the youngest is another daughter.)

Experts differed in their reactions to the first public appearance of one of Kim’s children. But then state media reports featured Kim Ju Ae a second time, when she appeared during a photo session with technicians and scientists who contributed to the development of the country’s ICBM programs. More analyses followed the second appearance.

Unlike her first appearance, when she was wearing a more natural look, Kim Ju Ae wore makeup and was dressed up like her mother in the photo session with her father’s loyal weapon technicians and scientists. As she had appeared twice in the North’s state media in the span of two weeks, some experts said that the series of appearances demonstrated Kim Jong Un’s decision to tap her as his successor. Kim Ju Ae’s designation as “the most beloved child” is the most compelling evidence supporting this analysis. As further proof, proponents of this theory cited a photo capturing a senior official bowing to her.

However, it is a bit early for Kim Jong Un to prepare to hand over his power to any of his children. He has not even turned 40 yet. Kim Jong Un himself only made his debut when his father Kim Jong Il’s health deteriorated after he suffered a stroke in August 2008. Kim Jong Un was publicly positioned as heir apparent while in his mid-20s.

According to Seoul’s spy agency, Kim Ju Ae is only around 10 years old. In this context, her public appearance resurrected questions over Kim Jong Un’s health. Concern about the need for an heir would be the most plausible background explaining Kim Ju Ae’s appearances.

The Telegraph, a British daily newspaper, claimed that Kim Jong Un is having a “midlife crisis,” citing his unstable emotions, dependence on alcohol, and health worries. Assuming the report’s sources are credible enough to verify Kim’s recent status, it can also support pundits’ analyses that the recent appearance of Kim Ju Ae is Kim Jong Un’s message toward his military and party officials that he has tapped her to be the next leader of the country. However, there have been repeated rumors over Kim Jong Un’s health from the beginning of his reign, with no way to verify these reports aside from confirmation in the North’s state media (which is extremely unlikely to happen, even if Kim were seriously ill).

At this time, there is no credible information indicating Kim is suffering from bad health. Kim Ju Ae’s appearances are not a reasonable cause to assume Kim Jong Un’s health has worsened recently.

Another rationale for the unveiling of Kim Ju Ae is that Kim Jong Un is sending a message to the United States and the international community: North Korea’s nuclear weapons are no longer negotiable.

Alongside setting a new record for missile launches last year, North Korea also vowed to increase its nuclear arsenal following its codification of a new law to support its nuclear forces in September. By lowering the threshold for using its nuclear weapons, North Korea also made it explicit that the country’s nuclear arsenal will not be restricted to defensive use anymore.

In this regard, the debut of Kim Ju Ae could be Kim Jong Un’s strategic decision in a bid to send messages that the North’s nuclear development is not just aimed at guaranteeing the security and stability of the Kim regime, but also for the well-being of future generations in North Korea.

Releasing a photo capturing Kim Jong Un and his “most beloved child” at the ICBM launch site could also indicate Kim’s resolve to keep pressuring the United States and South Korea to make concessions first if they want to renew the deadlocked nuclear talks. He might have wanted to clearly draw the line that giving up nuclear weapons to achieve the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will always be off Pyongyang’s table – even after the end of his reign.

Due to KCNA’s recent reports featuring Kim Ju Ae, she seems to be the strongest candidate among her siblings for the next leader of North Korea. However, her young age and her gender both make her an unlikely heir. It would be highly challenging for Pyongyang’s male-dominated elites to pledge allegiance to a woman, much less a girl. Under the North’s spiritual “Baekdu bloodline,” a sacred lineage of the Kim family that has legitimatized the regime, Kim Jong Un’s son, who is also his oldest child, has more potential to grab power.

At this moment, the unidentified son of Kim Jong Un is also too young to be leader of the country, as he is believed to be around 13 years old. The son has not been unveiled yet to the public. The choice to unveil his daughter first, not his only son, has triggered rumors that Kim Jong Un saw Kim Ju Ae as more fit for the leadership. Similarly, Kim Jong Il chose Kim Jong Un as his successor, bypassing eldest son Kim Jong Nam – who was later assassinated at a Malaysian airport in February 2017. But even if Kim Jong Un has reason to mistrust his son, it will be easier for a man to garner unconditional support from the North Korean elites due to the country’s long-time male-dominated system.

If Kim Jong Un loses control due to his poor health conditions in the next few years – and remember, this is only speculation – Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of Kim Jong Un and the main voice on inter-Korean relations, may have a chance to take her brother’s seat more easily than any of his young children, considering her age and experience in statesmanship. In this scenario, however, there could also be a possibility of male chauvinists in North Korea’s elite groups seeking to help Kim Han Sol, the son of Kim Jong Nam, who is believed to be in the protective custody of the CIA, to take over the leadership. That could bring chaos to the power competition in North Korea for the first time in the country’s history.