Letter from the Editors

February 24, 2023, will mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine. While Europe is not our main theater of concern here at The Diplomat, the invasion of Ukraine has proven monumental in stirring the geopolitical pot, heightening existing tensions between great powers. The Putin-Xi relationship – a “bromance,” some may pithily claim – is of key interest, as are Russia’s relations with other powers in Asia, such as Pakistan. None are as simple as they seem. As geopolitical currents swirl, and great powers clash, the Islamic State Khorasan Province basks in the opportunities such tumultuous times churn up. Meanwhile, Thailand is in a lull between its own “cycles of contention” – with the likelihood that troubling times lie ahead.

Twenty days before Russia invaded Ukraine, the Chinese and Russian leaders heralded their “no limits” partnership. The invasion cast the early February 2022 joint statement in a different light, as observers watched what it meant in the new reality. Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at UNSW Sydney, explains in our cover story that while the Putin-Xi friendship is certainly important, it mostly oils the wheels of a bilateral relationship built on much greater structural trends. There is more to China-Russia relations than simple bonhomie between autocrats. In light of that, Korolev writes, “China-Russia strategic alignment is likely to stay, and Russia’s war in Ukraine is unlikely to cause it to unravel.”

Next we turn to the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), perhaps the most successful Islamic State franchise and one at the cutting edge of global jihad. Lucas Webber, co-founder and editor at militantwire.com, charts the internationalization of ISKP’s efforts in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and its apparent embrace of the coming multipolar age. From the war in Ukraine to rising tensions between the United States and China, great power conflict generates prime conditions for the terrorist outfit’s transnational vision to find new footholds the world over.

In early 2020, Thais were fed up. They flooded the streets of Bangkok protesting the dissolution of the Future Forward party and, belatedly, the 2019 election that returned 2014 coup-maker Prayut Chan-o-cha to power again. After a brief pandemic interruption, the protests returned in the summer of 2020, morphed, and grew – and then fizzled out. As James Buchanan, an independent analyst, explains, political contention ebbs and flows; it’s a natural cycle of sorts. In 2022, the political fervor ebbed in Thailand, but with the possibility of rigged elections later this year, the “vicious cycle” of Thai politics may soon enter a new phase.

And finally, we turn back to Russia: This time to examine its relationship with Pakistan. Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan happened to be in Moscow when the invasion of Ukraine began a year ago. Even after Khan’s April ouster, some saw an opportunity for Pakistan-Russia relations to advance, particularly in the energy realm. But, as scholar Salman Rafi Sheikh writes, Moscow-Islamabad ties have long been rocky. Khan’s tenure didn’t materially change the calculus of the country’s powerful military, and the United States remains a more vital partner, no matter how alluring cheap Russian gas is.

We hope you enjoy these stories, and the many more in the following pages.