What Impact Will Vietnam’s Political Turbulence Have on Its Foreign Relations?

On January 17, Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc tendered his resignation, becoming the first president in the country’s history to step down in the middle of his term. Phuc fell on his sword after the Communist Party of Vietnam’s (CPV) Central Committee held him responsible for “violations and wrongdoings” committed by officials during his time as prime minister between 2016 and 2021. 

Phuc’s resignation came amid a series of seismic changes. A raft of high-ranking government and party officials have been censured, expelled from the party, and even arrested as part of CPV chief Nguyen Phu Trong’s “blazing furnace” anti-corruption drive. The “violations and wrongdoings” mentioned by the CPV in connection with Phuc were almost certainly related to two pandemic-era grifts – one involving overpriced COVID-19 test kits and the other involving repatriation flights for Vietnamese citizens stranded abroad – that have undermined the CPV’s moral (and hence political)  authority in the eyes of the Vietnamese public.

These cases have led to a series of other departures. On January 5, two of Vietnam’s four deputy prime ministers, Pham Binh Minh and Vu Duc Dam, both resigned over their roles in the scandals. Meanwhile, there has been been a broader purge of Foreign Ministry officials implicated in the repatriation flight scheme. Even current Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son was “severely reprimanded” by the Politburo for his role in the scandal.

Given the external challenges facing Vietnam, particularly with regard to its position in the growing rivalry between China and the United States, it is worth asking how the current changes will impact the country’s external relations. Phuc and Minh in particular have played important roles in Vietnam’s foreign relations over the past decade. Phuc was active on this front during his five-year term as prime minister, and was important in consolidating Hanoi’s relations with a number of Western countries, including the United States. Meanwhile, Minh served as foreign minister for nearly a decade prior to 2021, and was the sitting Politburo member in charge of external affairs. 

For all the seismic changes on the domestic front, however, the impacts on the overall trajectory of Vietnamese foreign policy are unlikely to be significant. Unlike, say, Cambodia, where the leader plays a pivotal role in determining the country’s foreign orientation, foreign policy in Vietnam is not set by any single individual, even if prominent officials can often leave their imprint. 

“Vietnam’s foreign policy towards the major powers is made collectively by the Politburo in which the influence of its most senior members is paramount,” Carlyle A. Thayer, a  prominent observer of Vietnamese politics, wrote in a recent briefing. “In sum, Phuc was not the decisive leader who set the course and directions of Vietnam’s relations with the United States.” 

He added that Minh was a relatively junior member of the Politburo, and that he similarly had “an influential but not decisive role” on the formation of foreign policy. “The role of any individual… should not be overexaggerated,” Thayer concluded.

As a result, Vietnamese diplomacy has been relatively consistent in its broad contours over the past couple of decades. Hanoi’s foreign policy focuses on maintaining stable and productive relations with China (and handling the periodic domestic upheavals related to this) while pursuing a diverse menu of relations with other large and mid-size powers.

That said, senior officials can play important roles in implementing the policies laid down by the CPV leadership, and in consolidating personal relationships with foreign diplomats and officials. As such, the loss of Phuc and Minh, to say nothing of the large number of Foreign Ministry staffers that were figuratively defenestrated as a result of the repatriation flights scandal, has clearly left Vietnam short of experienced foreign affairs personnel at a turbulent time in global politics. For instance, Tran Luu Quang, Minh’s replacement as deputy prime minister in charge of foreign affairs, has little previous experience in the field, and is likely to face a sharp learning curve in his new role. 

As Hai Hong Nguyen wrote in The Diplomat on January 11, Minh’s abrupt mid-term departure “will be a setback for Vietnam’s diplomacy at a time when it is greatly in need of an experienced and skilled diplomat and leader.” 

How long it takes for Vietnam to regenerate the necessary expertise, and whether the country suffers any shortfalls in its diplomacy in the meantime, remains to be seen – not least because Trong’s “blazing furnace” may well consume more officials in the months to come.