China’s Stalled Europe Diplomacy

It’s been over four years since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s last tour of Europe. In March 2019, he visited Italy, Monaco, and France. In retrospect, it was something of a high-water mark for China-Europe relations. The trip is most remembered for Italy’s decision to sign on to Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative, making it the first major European power to do so.

Even then, however, the faultlines were clear. French President Emmanuel Macron made sure to include both his German counterpart and the European Commission President in a meeting with Xi, a clear sign of the EU’s united front toward China. Comments at the time from German Chancellor Angela Merkel – seen as one of the biggest proponents of smooth relations with Beijing – underlined the increasingly skeptical stance European governments were adopting toward China: “We, as Europeans, want to play an active part [in the Belt and Road],” she said. “That must lead to a certain reciprocity, and we are still wrangling over that a bit.”

Nearly four years later, those faultlines have widening into a yawning chasm. First, the COVID-19 pandemic – and China’s heavy-handed and self-congratulatory “mask diplomacy” on the continent – soured many Europeans. Meanwhile, Europe’s existing concerns about market access and human rights violations were only exacerbated by China’s zero COVID policies.

And if things weren’t bad enough, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine plummeted China-Europe relations to a new low, as Beijing refused to criticize its “no limits” partner.

In February 2023, China’s top diplomat returned to Europe in an attempt at damage control. Wang Yi, China’s long-time foreign minister and now the head of the Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Office, paid visits to France, Italy, Germany, Hungary, and Russia. On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, he met with even more European officials, including the foreign ministers of Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, the U.K., and Ukraine, and the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell.

The stated goal of the trip, according to China’s Foreign Ministry, was to ““promote new developments in bilateral relations, enhance strategic mutual trust between China and Europe, and exchange views on major international issues.”

But the underlying reason for the trip was stated quite directly during Wang’s keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference: “China and Europe are two major forces, markets and civilizations in an increasingly multi-polar world. The choices we make have a huge impact on where the world goes.”

In other words, Wang was attempting to make sure Europe makes the “right choice” by not engaging in confrontation with China. This is what Chinese officials mean when they urge Europe to adopt an “independent” foreign policy – “independent” in this context means “not coordinated with the United States.”

The problem with this narrative is that it has never looked less convincing to European capitals. The Russian invasion of Ukraine drove home in a visceral way the threats posed to European security – without any prodding from Washington needed. China’s barely disguised support for Moscow, the source of that threat, gave Europe every reason to back away from Beijing.

Indeed, China’s Ukraine stance was a major issue throughout Wang’s trip, which came days before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Wang attempted to sell China’s “impartial” and “objective” stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, telling the Munich Security Conference, “On the Ukraine issue, China’s position boils down to supporting talks for peace.”

But Wang visited Moscow and met with Russia’s foreign minister and President Vladimir Putin immediately after, undercutting his messaging on China’s “objective” position. If Wang’s Europe tour made any progress, it was immediately undone by his declaration to Putin that “the China-Russia relationship has stood the test of the drastic changes in the world landscape and become mature and tenacious, standing as firm as Mount Tai.”

A month later, Xi skipped the Europe apology tour entirely and headed straight to Russia. In several mutual admiration sessions with Putin, Xi tried at times to emphasize China’s “independent” Russia policy and “objective” position on Ukraine, but that messaging was tepid compared to the declarations of lasting commitment to Sino-Russian relations.

“Consolidating and developing China-Russia relations well is China’s strategic decision, based on its basic interests and the larger trends of global development,” Xi declared.

The Chinese readouts from the talks repeatedly mentioned China’s desire to see what it calls the “crisis in Ukraine” resolved through diplomatic talks, with a negotiated peace deal. That has raised hopes in some European capitals that China will help pressure Russia to reach a settlement. But the Chinese and European ideas of what “peace” should look like are quite different.

China’s vision, as laid out in its February 2023 position paper, starts by noting that “[t]he sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld.” But nowhere does the paper actually call for Russian troops to leave Ukraine, or for the territory that has been illegally annexed by Russia’s unilateral actions to be returned to Ukrainian control.

Instead, China demands an end to “unilateral sanctions unauthorized by the UN Security Council” – effectively a call to remove the costs imposed by the United States and its allies on Russia for its aggression. There is also an oblique call for European countries and the U.S. to stop providing arms to Ukraine, which Beijing calls “fanning the flames and aggravating tensions.”

The position paper thus outlines a scenario where pressure on Russia is lifted and support for Ukraine is removed – which would likely force Kyiv to the bargaining table in such a disadvantageous position that it must cede whatever territory Moscow demands.

That, simply put, is not palatable to European states – especially Russia’s near neighbors, who fear that Putin would then simply be emboldened to invade other states in the future.

“I hope that in Moscow the Chinese President will maintain the same priority of respect for this principle, for the inviolability of borders and for States’ territorial sovereignty,” French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told a French newspaper ahead of Xi’s trip. “China is also very committed to stability, and it sees any sudden disruption to balance as unfavorable. This war in Ukraine isn’t in its interest.”

French President Emmanuel Macron – who notably visited Moscow in the last weeks before the invasion, trying without success to prevent the current catastrophe – will travel to Beijing in April. He is hoping to convince Xi to pursue a true peace – one based on a withdrawal of Russian troops and respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty.

“China must help us put pressure on Russia so that it never uses chemical or nuclear weapons … and that it stops its aggression as a precondition for talks,” Macron said in announcing his trip.

China, however, is apparently not interested in that vision of peace. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters that he had invited China to take part in the implementation of Ukraine’s own “Peace Formula,” but had not yet received a response. Nor has Xi held a phone call with the Ukrainian leader, despite much speculation that he would do so shortly after returning from Russia. China can’t be much use as a mediator if Xi won’t even talk to Zelenskyy.

Europe has made clear the existential threat it sees emanating from Russia, and from Putin personally. That didn’t deter Xi from pledging ever-closer partnership with Moscow. As much as Beijing decries “bloc confrontation,” one is clearly underway – and China has chosen to throw its lot in with Russia.

As long as that holds true, the prospects for a revival of China-Europe ties are extremely slim.