Is Transformation Possible in Sri Lanka?

Sri Lanka marks 75 years of independence this year. The milestone falls amid an unprecedented economic crisis that has brought with it political, social and economic upheaval. The economic crisis resulted in months-long protests by citizens starting in the spring of 2022. What began as neighborhood protests in different parts of Sri Lanka transformed into an exceptional mobilization of citizens calling for the resignation of the then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his government and a system change.

This mobilization resulted in mass resignations in 2022, resignations that seemed near impossible previously considering the mandates received in 2019 and 2020 by the president and government. But the Rajapaksas were out. Ranil Wickremesinghe was elected as the new president by parliament.

The Wickremesinghe presidency is confronted with multiple challenges, including worrying socioeconomic indexes. It has also been accused of repression, and most recently of delaying local government elections, thereby undermining the right to vote and representative democracy. These have contributed to new levels of frustration and disillusionment among citizens toward the political and bureaucratic elites, with the first three months of 2023 witnessing continued citizen mobilization and agitation.

Sri Lanka has a history of citizen mobilization, largely in response to the cycles of violence, inequalities, and impunity. The present crisis has in effect been brewing for years considering the authoritarian and militarized governance model and ethno-nationalism that has plagued the country for decades. A year after the commencement of what is popularly known as the Aragalaya (meaning “struggle” in Sinhala), questions remain as to the extent of change brought by the people’s mobilization, especially as no genuine efforts have been made to tackle the root causes of the conflict or structure of government, or address the impunity linked to human rights violations and economic crimes.

Sri Lanka’s Legacy of Violence 

Structural inequalities and discriminatory policies in Sri Lanka over the decades resulted in ethnic cleavages and cycles of violence, including a near three decade ethnic conflict that was brutally ended in May 2009. Nearly 14 years after the end of the war, questions still remain as to human rights violations that occurred during this period, with victims searching for truth and justice. Over the years successive governments promised political reforms and reconciliation, but the root causes of the conflict are sustained amid ethno-nationalism and impunity.

Successive Sri Lanka governments have also promised to reckon with past abuses by appointing domestic investigations and inquiries, with no real progress in getting to the truth. The combination of denials of violations and delays in reckoning with past abuses has entrenched a culture of impunity, with perpetrators protected and sometimes promoted instead of facing justice.

The failures of domestic mechanisms have resulted in frustration and anger among victims, some of whom have looked to international interventions. This has seen advocacy targeting key capitals and the United Nations with several resolutions adopted at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) that highlighted Sri Lanka’s past legacies and continuing challenges. The most recent resolution adopted in October 2022 not only examined past human rights violations but spoke to economic crimes, linking the two key areas and identifying impunity as a key impediment in Sri Lanka’s inability to have genuine peace and reconciliation. The lack of progress in domestic efforts at accountability has also seen countries such as the United States and Canada imposing individual sanctions on key individuals linked to past abuses, including former presidents and military officials.

The Crisis in 2022 

The deteriorating economic and political crisis in 2022 saw shortages of essential commodities such as food, medicine, cooking gas, and fuel, resulting in long queues for many who struggled to obtain essentials. Such queues also saw people collapse in the heat, with several reported deaths. This period also had power cuts of 12-13 hours a day, impacting all sectors, including different state sectors, hospitals, businesses, and households.

The combination of all these factors shook Sri Lanka to its core, and this in a country that had its share of past cycles of violence and devastation. Despite its past experiences – a near three-decade ethnic conflict, the devastating Easter Sunday attacks in 2019, and numerous cycles of ethno-religious violence – the events of 2022 exposed Sri Lanka’s murky governance system and ill preparedness to handle multiple cascading crises.

Those events exposed Sri Lanka’s crisis in governance, where a powerful executive arm had limited-to-no checks on its decision-making and faced no accountability for its actions or inaction. Disastrous decisions by then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa helped create the 2022 crisis: the tax cuts in 2019 that reduced government revenue; the overnight ban on chemical fertilizer that had devastating consequences for the agriculture and tea industry, impacting the livelihoods of thousands; and the delays in obtaining essential international support to address the economic crisis. These also speak to a governance model that has entrenched authoritarian rule, corruption, and cronyism, key factors that contributed to the present crisis.

Over the decades, Sri Lanka’s executive presidency has evolved into an all-powerful office dictating policies that brought the country to bankruptcy. Calls for structural changes – such as abolishing the executive presidency; introducing necessary checks, including independent institutions and oversight; addressing corruption; and initiating accountability – have been resisted by some who used the opaque governance model to further their own interests. This resulted in an authoritarian and militarized governance model and state capture of key institutions.

With Sri Lanka’s economy in shambles and many facing severe hardships, the call for a system change echoed loudly in 2022. The tens of thousands who came out in protest of the corrupt and authoritarian governance model demanded not only resignations but an overhaul of the entire system. A national survey conducted in 2022 highlighted that 83 percent of those polled supported a system change and 75.6 percent supported the abolishing of the executive presidency. The support for such change came from all walks of society, as also represented in the mobilization witnessed in 2022.

Despite such support and an opportunity for reforms in 2022, genuine reform has been elusive in Sri Lanka.

Impact of the Crisis 

More than six months have passed since the first ousting of a sitting president in Sri Lanka. This exceptional moment saw the reawakening of citizens in the face of a complete crisis in governance. The Aragalaya unified Sri Lankans in rejecting the corrupt crony governance model with loud and clear calls for change and for political accountability.

Such an uprising was unthinkable previously, considering Gotabaya Rajapaksa was billed as a strong leader and elected with a popular mandate on a platform of security, prosperity, and economic growth. The narrative of a strong leader with a military background soon collapsed, however, with people witnessing numerous policy missteps, rampant corruption, and repeated failures in governance.

Despite being kicked out of office in 2022, the Rajapaksas remain a powerful political family in Sri Lanka, with several family members continuing to be Members of Parliament (MPs) and yet to face accountability in Sri Lanka for allegations of human rights abuses and economic crimes. President Ranil Wickremesinghe – whose party has only one seat in the Parliament – is reliant on other parties to govern, including the support of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the Rajapaksas’ party.

Resounding calls for structural change motivated the enactment of the 21st amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution in 2022, but this falls short of the far-reaching reforms demanded by the people. The executive presidency was retained. Demands to address corruption and initiate accountability have yet to see any major reforms introduced or any culprits for the economic crisis held to account. Similarly, delays have been seen with other structural and legislative reforms central to any hope of a real system change.

Despite strong public support for change, action is lagging. Questions must be posed as to why the political will is lacking among the authorities to initiate reforms that resonate with Sri Lanka’s context and the clear demands of the people.

The Aragalaya started as a direct result of the economic hardships faced by the people, and 2023 has witnessed a further deterioration of socioeconomic conditions. Independent studies by the World Food Program show that 37 percent of families in Sri Lanka are food insecure, with 56,000 children facing severe acute malnutrition. Recent increases in taxes and utility prices have further compounded people’s woes, with many falling below the poverty levels and struggling to meet basic needs.

Added to this, the government is struggling to provide social security support, with January 2023 seeing delays in Samurdhi (an existing social security scheme) payments and further compounding hardships faced by those already struggling. With the recent approval of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout agreement, attention is now on how the IMF package will inject funds into a cash-strapped country,  support some of the most vulnerable communities in Sri Lanka, and roll out tough reforms.

Uncertainty also remains with political reforms. Wickremesinghe pledged to fully implement the 13th amendment to the Constitution, which was introduced in 1987 and devolves certain powers to the provinces with the center keeping some specific powers. However, there is yet no movement on this front. Talks with the minority Tamil political parties were suspended in early 2023 with no progress on urgent demands such as land releases in the north and east of the country and the detention of political prisoners. This came against a backdrop of Buddhist clergy and other Sinhala nationalist forces protesting the full implementation of the amendment, a reminder of the continuing challenges with ethno-nationalism in Sri Lanka.

The Aragalaya involved largely peaceful mobilization, but it has also witnessed new forms of repression by the authorities, including surveillance, intimidation, arrests, and disproportionate use of force. The use of emergency and counterterror laws became the norm to respond to protests, with a state of emergency declared in three separate instances in 2022.

It is unfortunate that 2023 has seen continuing repression, resulting in one death and several injured due to the state’s use of force against protesters. Meanwhile, different narratives have emerged to label protesters as exacerbating instability and blaming them for delays in Sri Lanka’s recovery. Such a narrative has had some impact within certain sections of society that are fatigued by the multiple challenges linked to the crisis and perceive any delays with the recovery process as a nuisance. A combination of factors – blaming protesters, the ongoing socioeconomic crisis, fatigue, and others – have contributed to creating divisions among those who stood together in 2022 in their demand for change.

Despite all of this, there is no denying the impact the Aragalaya has had on multiple fronts in Sri Lanka. New levels of activism and mobilization have demonstrated the rise of an energized citizenry more aware of their rights and duties and motivated to hold the authorities and elites accountable. Whether they are able to sustain their activism and agitation in the face of continuing economic hardships, repression, and fatigue is to be seen.

One Year After the Aragalaya 

It has been a tumultuous year in Sri Lanka. This article merely brushes upon some key events around a crisis that sparked a mobilization unparalleled in Sri Lanka’s recent history, which witnessed citizens agitating for change and demanding a better future. This mobilization directly resulted in events previously thought impossible: the resignations of a powerful president and his government. That island-wide mobilization questioned corrupt and authoritarian governance and cronyism and demanded structural reforms.

One year since the Aragalaya, questions still remain as to the reforms needed in Sri Lanka. Structural reforms have remained elusive. Attempts at legislative reforms to address corruption and mismanagement have been slow, with limited changes introduced and the entrenched practices that facilitated corruption still in place.

Amid all this, the most vulnerable are facing increasing hardships. While the long queues and power cuts experienced in 2022 may be gone for now, daily struggles continue for a significant population. Reports of families skipping meals and children dropping out of schools are too common. Sri Lanka continues to see high numbers migrating to other countries, an indictment suggesting that many do not see a life in Sri Lanka.

These developments are happening amid the uncertainties surrounding Sri Lanka’s future. Tough reforms will be required as part of the IMF bailout package, with many questions raised on its impact. The increases in taxes and tariffs have already sparked new rounds of protests, and more hardships could follow when other measures linked to the IMF program are introduced.

Critically, the government has delayed the local government elections. Despite an interim order from the Supreme Court of Sri Lanka for the executive to release funds to hold elections, no movement has been made in this regard. The fear that elections will be indefinitely postponed raises dire warnings of an authoritarian governance model undermining the very foundation of democracy in Sri Lanka.

Added to these woes is the lack of progress with genuine reckoning in Sri Lanka. The UNHRC Resolution adopted in 2022 referenced both human rights concerns and economic crimes and highlighted the need for accountability. With no prospects for genuine reckoning in Sri Lanka, the demands for international steps toward addressing impunity in Sri Lanka will grow.

Much uncertainty remains one year after an exceptional movement provided an opportunity for transformation. While an unpopular government was kicked out of office, many of the same faces remain in the political arena with no prospect for accountability in the immediate future. There are increasing levels of disillusionment and frustration against the political elites and others who are seen as the stumbling blocks toward initiating governance reforms and a change in the political culture in Sri Lanka. Whether this frustration translates into sustained protests and what form that might take is still unclear, but the early months of 2023 have already indicated the repression levied against any form of dissent in Sri Lanka.

Despite the uncertainties and disappointments, the crisis opened up new debates and re-energized old ones. The crisis exposed the inherent problems of the executive presidency, corruption, and cronyism and thereby mobilized a new generation of individuals and groups. These actors demand a better future and are unlikely to stay silent. Their activism has propelled authorities and elites to take note of the need for change. Inaction on accountability and reforms will exacerbate frustrations and anger and unleash new forms of protests. In such a messy political landscape, it is to be seen how citizens navigate and define their own path amid unexpected pitfalls in Sri Lanka.

Despite the numerous uncertainties, the Aragalaya and its impact provided a flicker of hope that transformation, though difficult and facing challenges from multiple fronts, has a chance in Sri Lanka.