New Revelations About Pulwama Attack Do Not Bode Well for India-Pakistan Ties

On February 14, 2019, a suicide bomber attacked a convoy of Indian paramilitary personnel in the Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir, killing 40 soldiers. The incident brought India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed countries, to the brink of war.

In response to the attack, India launched airstrikes against alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan responded with its own airstrikes across the ceasefire line in the disputed Kashmir region, claiming to have shot down two Indian jets that entered Pakistani airspace.

It was the first publicly acknowledged dogfight between India and Pakistan since 1971, causing both countries to close down commercial fights in many areas. Both India and Pakistan mounted media campaigns, each claiming victory in the skirmishes, but leaving room for de-escalation.

Amid the tussle, Sushma Swaraj, then the external affairs minister of India, told the media that the air strikes didn't target Pakistan’s military installations. “No military installations were targeted,” Swaraj said, pointing out that “the limited objective of the pre-emptive strike was to act decisively against the terrorist infrastructure of the JeM [Jaish-e-Mohammed] in order to pre-empt another terrorist attack in India.” 

“India does not wish to see a further escalation of the situation and India will continue to act with responsibility and restraint,” she added. 

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry in turn said that Islamabad had struck a “non-military target” in India-administered Kashmir to demonstrate its "right, will, and capability to defend itself.”

“We have no intention of escalation, but are fully prepared to do so if forced into that paradigm,” the foreign office emphasized.

Recent revelations about the Pulwama attack are likely to further strain ties between India and Pakistan, making it even more difficult for them to find common ground.

Satya Pal Malik, former governor of Indian-administered Kashmir, recently claimed in an interview with The Wire that Prime Minister Narendra Modi hid key details about the Pulwama terror attack and used the incident for political advantage. Malik, who was governor when the Pulwama attack occurred, said that he “realized that all the onus of the attack will be put on Pakistan” to gain electoral benefits. In response to this attack, Modi repeatedly used it as a rallying cry to mobilize voters in the 2019 general elections, which he won in a landslide victory months later.

The incident has been seen as a major turning point in Indian politics and also served as an example of how effective political rhetoric can be used to sway public opinion and secure electoral victories.

Despite blaming Pakistan, Malik claimed that the Modi-led government's negligence and incompetence led to the attack. 

Malik maintained that Modi told him to “stay quiet” about the Home Ministry's lapses that allegedly led to the incident. He added that Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had also made a similar request to conceal key details. He claimed that the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) had asked for aircraft to transport its personnel, but was refused by the Home Ministry, suggesting that security personnel became easy targets as they had to travel via road. 

India’s main opposition party, the Congress, has demanded a white paper on the Pulwama attack in light of Malik’s allegation. “How did the militants procure around 300 kg of explosives? How could this huge quantity remain undetected despite heavy security presence in south Kashmir, especially the Pulwama-Anantnag-Avantipora belt?” a Congress official asked. 

“Four years after the attack, how far has the inquiry progressed? Why is there a delay in completing the inquiry and letting the nation know its findings?” he added.

For its part, Pakistan believes that Malik’s revelations have “vindicated its stance” on the Pulwama attack, stressing that India should answer questions raised by the former governor. “It is time India be held accountable for the actions that imperiled regional peace in the aftermath of Pulwama attack,” Pakistan’s foreign office said.

Officials in Pakistan claim that Pulwama was not the only incident in which Modi’s government tried to use hostilities with Pakistan to benefit itself politically. They claim that there have been a series of escalations in tension between the two countries, including the firing of a nuclear-capable BrahMos missile into Pakistan in March 2022. “The firing of [the] BrahMos missile by India was not an accidental move, but rather a deliberate one,” said one official on condition of anonymity. 

“Even if it was accidental, it tells us that India’s obsession with Pakistan has reached alarming levels, meaning there are increasingly more chances of miscalculation between nuclear-armed neighbors,” the official warned.

With Modi’s government facing a tough battle for re-election in 2024, there are fears in Islamabad that he may resort to hostilities with Pakistan to woo voters. It remains to be seen how India-Pakistan ties will shape up in the coming months as both countries head into their respective general elections. Will Modi use his hardline stance against Pakistan as a way of appealing to voters? Or will he look for ways to de-escalate tensions?