The Price of US Actions Not Meeting Its Words

When U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed that he would indeed be attending the G-7 in person rather than online, there was a collective sigh of relief – not just across the Japanese ministries, but also across the capitals of the world’s richest economies. The prospect of having the leader of the United States participating virtually would have only increased speculation that the annual gathering of leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan as well as the United States was no longer relevant in a world much-changed since the 1970s, when the group first started meeting.

In the end, though, the Hiroshima summit was anything but irrelevant. To be sure, it will go down in history for Ukrainian President Volydymyr Zelenskyy attending in person; from Hiroshima, he made a direct appeal to the G-7 leaders for their continued political, military, and financial support in Ukraine’s fight against Russia. At the same time, Zelenskyy made sure to court the leaders of emerging economies who were at the meeting as observers, most notably India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. If there was any doubt about Ukraine being one of the key issues on the G-7 agenda, the Ukrainian president’s participation ensured that it became the lead topic for discussion, dominating media headlines.

Still, there were three particularly striking developments in Hiroshima that will likely change the future of G-7 summits moving forward. First, the inclusion of countries outside of the G-7 – particularly those in the Global South including India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brazil – is a trend likely to continue with the 2024 meeting (to be held in Italy) and beyond. Second, the inclusion of emerging markets and the focus on empowering the Global South is leading to greater emphasis on governance and values that unite countries.

Finally, while the United States remains the leading country of the G-7, the influence it wields in the group is likely to continue to decrease, especially amid expectations that Washington will be more and more focused on its own domestic concerns.

Even though the Hiroshima summit’s date had been locked in for well over a year, the fact that domestic concerns could jeopardize U.S. participation at the eleventh hour was disconcerting. In that context, the Biden administration’s rhetoric about the need to work closely together with allies and partners seemed just that: simply words, and not leading to actual actions. While Biden did attend the G-7 in the end, the fact that he canceled his participation in the Quad summit in Sydney the following week has hardly won hearts and minds in Australia, which had been planning to host the meeting.

The biggest disappointment, though, was felt in Papua New Guinea, where the U.S. president had been slated to go immediately after the G-7 summit. Papua New Guinea had declared the day of Biden’s visit – the first ever by a sitting U.S. president – a national holiday.

With the Pacific Islands increasingly becoming a battleground for competition with China, Washington had been stepping up efforts to reach out to the 15 island countries in the region, which control about 20 percent of the world’s oceans. While the Biden administration hosted leaders from the region in Washington last September, the president’s visit to Papua New Guinea was seen as a much-anticipated demonstration of U.S. commitment to the region.

By contrast, his ultimate no-show may well give further ammunition to Beijing as it continues to step up not only investments in critical infrastructure as well as public facilities such as schools, but also military relations with the Pacific Islands, most notably a 2022 security pact with Solomon Islands.

Biden’s last-minute cancellation will undoubtedly be touted by China as a sign of the United States’ failure to recognize the importance of the Pacific islands beyond rhetoric. It will be a challenge for the White House to counter such an argument, especially if financial assistance to the region is not forthcoming.

The United States did notch some important gains, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stepping in for Biden to sign a new defense cooperation pact with Papua New Guinea. But the downgraded signing ceremony didn’t help Marape’s government sell the agreement, which faces fierce opposition at home.

At the same time, there is shaken confidence across the Indo-Pacific more broadly about the continued turmoil within the United States. The debt ceiling debacle in Washington that kept Biden away from Sydney and Papua New Guinea also has concerning implications for the continued smooth operations of the U.S. government.

The need to answer to the pressures of domestic politics is of course a price to be paid by all democracies, including the G-7. Still, the fact that Biden has been unable to attend key events abroad due to domestic issues has shaken confidence in the United States’ ability to focus on foreign policy goals. Should the U.S. president continue to renege on promises to meet directly with its allies and partners, expectations for Washington to act as a global leader are likely to be further eroded.