The Kyrgyz Who Cried ‘Coup’

Since coming to power via untraditional means in October 2020, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has side-stepped or squashed at least three coup attempts – or so his government claims. In November 2021, October 2022, and June 2023 Kyrgzy authorities arrested groups of individuals it claimed were plotting mass riots with the intention of unseating the government.

If there’s anything true about politics in Kyrgyzstan, it’s that power is an impermanent thing. Kyrgyz democracy leaves much to be desired, but unlike its regional neighbors there has been a regular change of leadership, albeit irregularly carried out. Since independence, three Kyrgyz presidents have been ousted by protest movements: Askar Akayev in 2005, Kurmanbek Bakiyev in 2010, and Sooronbay Jeenbekov in 2020. Only two Kyrgyz presidents out of six have stepped down as scheduled: Roza Otunbayeva in 2010 and Almazbek Atambayev in 2017. And only two have avoided being charged or jailed with crimes after leaving power (so far): Otunbayeva and Jeenbekov.

The veracity of the Japarov government’s claims to have fended off several coup plots is difficult to ascertain, and one can’t necessarily blame Japarov for being jumpy about threats to his position. That said, it’s not clear that there’s a difference in the collective mind of the Japarov government between the legitimate organization of opposition and a coup in the works.

In November 2021, as Kyrgyzstan approached a long-overdue rerun of the October 2020 parliamentary election, Kyrgyz authorities arrested 15 people and announced they’d prevented a coup. Among those detained were a member of parliament, Bakyt Zhetigenov; the leader of the El Yntymagy public association, Askat Temraliev (as well as some members, such as Azamat Musakeev and Nurbek Kalekeyev); and three Green Party of Kyrgyzstan parliamentary candidates, including Beknazar Kupeshev.

The State Committee for National Security (SCNS), the independent Kyrgyz state’s version of the KGB, said that the plotters had cajoled 1,000 young people to riot after the parliamentary election and aimed to seize power amid the chaos. The November 28, 2021 election went ahead as planned, with less than 35 percent turnout and no riots to speak of in the streets after.

Zhetigenov was released less than a month later when parliament refused to strip him of his parliamentary immunity. The others who had been detained were, in the ensuing months, also released to house arrest while the investigation continued. In June 2022, Azamat Musakeev – the last of those detained – was released to a month of house arrest. And then the case vanished. It’s not clear the investigation was ever concluded, and it does not appear that any trials took place.

That first coup plot was soon overtaken by another: The case of the Kempir-Abad dissenters. Once again, the SCNS claimed to have stopped a coup plot when it rounded up nearly 30 individuals in late October 2022. As we’ve covered extensively at The Diplomat, those detained – a group that includes several prominent politicians and activists – had organized opposition to a border agreement settled between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

Although a number of have been released to house arrest, some of the defendants remain in pre-trial custody. Kyrgyz officials said in May that the investigation had concluded but as of writing a trial date hadn’t been announced and lawyers for the defendants complained about a lack of access to case materials, since the case has been classified as secret.

And then on June 5, reports surfaced that Kyrgyz authorities were arresting people and crying, once again, coup. Some media reports said that 10 people had been arrested; others claimed more than 30. When the SCNS entered the conversation, it named five people who had been arrested, but only by their initials – N.R.S., N.R.S., I.G.S., M.A.Zh. and D.T.A – and claimed that 100 people were involved with the “organized group.” Media quickly identified the alleged main organizer – N.R.S – as Rosa Nurmatova.

Nurmatova is apparently the head of Eldik Kenesh, described by the SCNS as a “political party.” Eurasianet wrote that the party “has no public profile of note in Kyrgyzstan.” More interestingly, Nurmatova’s political past ties her closely to Japarov and his security chief, Kamchybek Tashiev; she apparently participated in a notorious 2012 protest at which Tashiev led the charge to storm parliament. Tashiev and Japarov were arrested. Nurmatova, RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reported, led the headquarters of supporters of Tashiev and Japarov that year.

It’s not clear why Nurmatova would break from the Japarov-Tashiev tandem and plot a coup, but that’s precisely what’s being alleged.

What will become of this case, and the fate of the Kempir-Abad dissenters, is as unclear as the cases themselves. The Kyrgyz authorities have not presented much by way of evidence to support these serious accusations of coup plots; nor is it clear that the Kyrgyz authorities make much of a distinction between opposition to the government and the plotting of a coup.

Curiously, a year after the allegedly forstalled 2021 coup, in November 2022 Japarov appointed Zhetigenov – the parliamentary deputy arrested in the pre-election sweep but released given his parliamentary immunity – to be mayor of Osh City.

And so Kyrgyz politics churns on, opaque as ever.