Navigating Uncertainty in U.S. China Policy.

Some of the most powerful U.S. officials have visited Beijing in recent months, as the Biden administration looks to walk a fine line between engaging with and remaining unyielding to China. But with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and most recently climate envoy John Kerry’s respective meetings with the Chinese leadership, there has been a dearth of tangible results. Perhaps more worryingly are even further uncertainties not just about the future of U.S.-China relations, but U.S. policy toward China altogether. The latest round of senior meetings, however, may lead to a more targeted approach to U.S. economic security and Washington’s strategy to ensure that national security interests and economic growth prospects are both protected.

The quick succession of high-level visits by U.S. cabinet members to Beijing after intensifying public hostility between the two countries has opened the door for continued dialogue. Sharing a commitment to a more frequent and diversified approach to communication between the two biggest nations in the world is undoubtedly a positive development not just for bilateral relations, but for the security of the world at large. If averting a crisis, especially an outright war between the two sides is a goal shared by Washington and Beijing, then moving toward a more stable and mature relationship can only contribute to reducing the risks of misinterpretation, unwitting provocations, and unintentional slights. 

Much has been made about the emerging weaknesses in the Chinese economy following nearly three years of lockdown in response to the global pandemic. Certainly, the need to offset the damages caused by a slowdown in growth is a key factor driving Beijing to welcome U.S. visits, even as the United States continues to disagree fundamentally on issues of unwavering interest to China, most notably regarding Taiwan. No amount of U.S. capital flowing into China is likely to change Xi Jingping’s unshakeable assertion that Taiwan is part of the PRC. The prospect of defusing Taiwan as a flashpoint of conflict in the international order will remain difficult at best even as the United States and China look to engage more frequently to avoid collision. 

Yet for Washington, greater engagement with a China that does not share the same worldview and values must also lead to a domestic reckoning about the evolution of the United States in the world, too. No longer can Beijing be expected to aspire to be a major player in a rules-based order that Washington created in the aftermath of World War II, even though China’s own economic success to date would have been impossible without it. But while voices calling for the United States to decouple from China altogether persist, Washington’s own view and expectations for relations with China moving forward continue to evolve. 

That evolution is particularly notable in the realm of economic security. Since announcing, in October 2022, that the United States would seek to curtail China developing critical technology by choking off its access to advanced semiconductors, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has continued to highlight the close link between security interests and defending American advanced technology industries. Sullivan’s comments on economic policy in shaping defense strategy have come under considerable scrutiny not just from economists but also from corporate executives and policymakers alike, especially his foray into trade policy and trade agreements in particular as he argued that traditional trade agreements have been detrimental for the middle class. 

In short, Sullivan has espoused a more closed-off global trading system more broadly as the United States looks to further economic growth by protecting its technology advantages. 

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Yellen’s visit to China offered a softer approach, by advancing a more realistic avenue to dealing with China from an economic perspective. 

The tone as much as the contextual difference between Sullivan and Yellen have highlighted the fact that even as the Biden administration enters its fourth year, Washington’s China policy remains in flux. What is clear, though, is that some of Washington’s most reliable partners including Japan, Australia, and Britain are seeking a more realist U.S. approach to dealing with the China challenge. While Beijing’s vision of its position in the world order clearly poses a threat to international security and stability, the prospect of disengaging with China is not feasible. Washington’s return to the table with Beijing is unlikely to lead to any tangible results in the immediate or even the medium term. But regular dialogue with China is expected to push the United States to pursue a more sustainable approach to economic security strategy that would be share by key U.S. allies and partners as well.