Who Will Actually Benefit From the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railroad?
Connectivity projects are crucial for landlocked Central Asian countries. Yet the railway brings major concerns: a lack of transparency, smuggling risks, and a possible debt trap.
China’s Premier Li Qiang visited Kyrgyzstan in late October to attend a meeting of leaders from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The biggest item on the bilateral agenda was the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, with Li calling for all parties to “work for an early start of the construction.” It was a sign that the project, which has been discussed for decades, may finally be realized.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia have created an appetite for alternative routes from China to Europe and the Middle East, leading to the 20-year-old railroad project’s renaissance. Now is the time for Central Asia to solidify its role as a transit region for goods between East and West.
The new route will reduce the time it takes to deliver goods to Europe by seven or eight days, creating an opportunity for Central Asia to regain the role of being “central” to continental trade.
However, experts warn that the multibillion-dollar CKU railway project will disproportionately benefit the elite. It may also be used to circumvent sanctions and fuel the growth of gray-zone trade.
The Price of Connectivity
Uzbek entrepreneurs that are engaged in the trade of goods with China report that it can take anywhere from 45 to 70 days to move goods by train from China through Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan. Although the current railway is the cheapest option, it’s not a viable means of transport for perishable or high-value goods.
Railway and air transport costs are also an issue for traders. “In my perspective, one of the foremost issues plaguing the import of Chinese goods into Uzbekistan is the exorbitant cost of transportation,” said Otabek Siddikov, proprietor of a Tashkent-based logistics firm.
If opting for air transport, businesses incur charges ranging from $9 to $25 per kilogram. Transporting via trucks is cheaper, but can still cost up to $130 per cubic meter (or $7 to $14 per kilogram.) On top of transport costs, there is also the additional burden of state duties on goods exported from China to Uzbekistan.
“Unfortunately, we also face the unsettling issue of corruption in the process of importing goods,” Siddikov added, without going into detail.
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Navruz Karimov is a freelance journalist from Tajikistan, specializing in working with open data. He writes analytical pieces on human rights, environmental issues, economics, and regional security in Central Asia. Has a Master's degree in International Journalism.
Abror Kurbonmuratov is an analyst and independent journalist from Uzbekistan. In his articles, he mainly writes about social problems, the lives of refugees, and people who have been subjected to violence. He is a doctoral student of Tashkent State University of Language and Literature.