Pakistan Searches for Stability Following Contentious Elections

After a turbulent election, two of Pakistan's major parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), have joined forces to form a coalition government. This is the third time in 15 years that the PML-N and PPP are forming a coalition government at the federal level. The two parties, along with their minor allies, have more than 150 seats in the 266-member National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, where 134 seats are required to form a government.

Under the agreement between the two parties, PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif is set to become prime minister, while PPP head Asif Ali Zardari will become president. The rest of the cabinet will include leaders from the two parties, but it will be the PML-N that will dominate.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is absent from this picture. Although the candidates it backed won 93 seats, they lack the necessary majority to establish a government. Khan, who is incarcerated on charges of fraud and other offenses, has firmly barred his party from initiating negotiations with other political groups.

While there is controversy regarding the fairness of the election and allegations that PTI was excluded from the political process by the powerful military establishment, there is hope that the incoming government will restore some degree of political and financial stability.

There are several reasons why this may be possible.

The PTI faces challenges in effectively playing the role of opposition due to strategic missteps and internal dynamics. By rejecting negotiations with major political parties like the PML-N and PPP, the party has missed an opportunity for reconciliation, putting its members in the National Assembly in a difficult position. Additionally, Khan's decision to merge his party with an Islamist group has prompted some lawmakers to reconsider their support for the PTI chief.

It is unlikely that the state institutions, particularly the military, will ease the pressure on Khan's party. This essentially means that PTI-affiliated legislators may not be able to participate in parliament without making compromises with the military establishment. They could be required to stay silent and refrain from participating in Khan’s agitation campaigns or efforts to undermine the new government.

Moreover, key pillars of power in Pakistan, including the military, bureaucracy, and overall state machinery, are inclined toward supporting the elected civilian government and focusing on governance amid economic challenges. This collective stance aims to shield the government from political opposition and ensure stability in addressing pressing national issues.

Given this context, it is probable that the new administration will continue the financial reforms initiated by the caretaker administration. Significant reforms are expected to be implemented during the initial months of its tenure, indicating a commitment to progress and development.

The new government is poised to receive substantial support from key international stakeholders such as Saudi Arabia, China, the United States, and the IMF to restore financial stability. This backing will be crucial in navigating economic challenges effectively.

Despite claims of election manipulation and fraud, no country has demonstrated any desire to put pressure on Pakistani authorities to help Khan's party or to reject the results of the election.

A Western diplomat in Islamabad, who spoke to The Diplomat on condition of anonymity, said that Khan has gained a reputation for being “unreliable and irrational.” In an indication of discomfort with the PTI chief, this diplomat lamented that “Imran has preferred to talk to Islamist groups but not political parties.” This indicates that the incoming government may benefit from a more favorable reputation among allies for maintaining stability and fostering positive relationships with key partners.

Given sentiments in favor of financial stability in Pakistan, there is increasing disinclination among the populace to engage in protest movements or agitation in support of any political leader. Many individuals have channeled their concerns through the electoral process and want to move forward with their lives.

At present, no political party seems capable of sustaining a prolonged agitation campaign in Pakistan. There is a general disinterest in such activities among the public. Looking ahead, it will be crucial for Khan and his allies to initiate dialogues with key stakeholders to navigate the country's political landscape successfully.

The government is expected to remain stable in the coming months as these dynamics unfold. The long-term success of the new administration, however, will hinge on how well it handles financial issues and maintains relationships with important allies, especially by persuading opposition leaders to start negotiations in order to pave the way for reconciliation among political elites in the country.