What Trump’s Re-election Could Mean for for the Japan-US Alliance

What will happen to Japan if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election? As more than a few opinion polls have found the former president has the upper hand over current President Joe Biden in the election, this “what if Trump wins?” question has become a real and serious issue in Tokyo.

Debate over what Japan can do to prepare for a possible Trump comeback heated up during the latest session of the country’s National Diet, which started on January 26.

At the House of Representatives Budget Committee session held on February 22, Ogata Rintaro, member of the House of Representatives and a former diplomat, proposed bringing forward the government’s ongoing plan to raise defense spending and related budgets to 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year 2027.

On February 10, Trump revealed that while he was in office he said the United States might not protect its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies from a potential Russian attack if they did not pay their fair share of defense expenditures. Trump appears to have aimed this warning at NATO countries whose defense spending does not reach the NATO standard of 2 percent of GDP.

“If we don't reach 2 percent of GDP by November of this year, there’s a possibility that someone who says ‘I won't help’ will become the next U.S. president,” Ogata cautioned. “We should hurry up to achieve the 2 percent target.”

In response, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa demurred. “Regarding what if Trump wins, I will refrain from commenting on elections in other countries,” he said. “I want the government to work together as one.”

Defense Minister Kihara Minoru also spoke carefully, saying, “We have to refrain from hypothetical talk about individual candidates in the U.S. presidential election such as [asking] what if.”

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Fact Sheet published in April 2023, the global defense budget represented 2.2 percent of global GDP in 2022, while Japan’s defense budget represented only 1.1 percent of its GDP.

Although the administration of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio already decided to increase defense spending during the Biden administration, if Trump returns, that alone will not be enough. Trump, who advocates an “America First” posture, has repeatedly indicated that he would not hesitate to withdraw U.S. forces from Japan and South Korea if necessary.

According to a memoir by John Bolton, who served as national security advisor for Trump from April 2018 to September 2019, Trump said the best way to get allies like Japan and South Korea to pay more for the cost of maintaining American troops in the two nations is “to threaten to withdraw all U.S. forces.”

In addition, according to the memoir of Mark Esper, who was secretary of defense under the Trump administration, Trump once advocated for the “complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea.” But then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly offered to help prevent this. According to Esper, Pompeo told Trump that the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea should be made a priority during the president’s second term in office, to which Trump responded, “Yeah, yeah, a second term.”

With that in mind, it is almost certain that Trump, if elected again, will intensify pressure on both Japan and South Korea to bear the cost of stationing U.S. troops by frequently threatening to withdraw troops from allied countries. Unfortunately for Japan, former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, who got along well with Trump and earned his personal trust, is out of the picture, having been assassinated in July 2022.

There is also a possibility that Trump will request or demand Tokyo revise the Japanese Constitution’s Article 9 to allow Japan to protect Taiwan from China. Article 9 of the constitution renounces war as a means of settling international disputes and prohibits the maintenance of armed forces and other war potential.

Trump has also seemed unconcerned with the state of U.S. extended deterrence. In 2016, then-presidential candidate Trump did not oppose the idea of Japan and South Korea becoming nuclear-armed, saying, “it’s going to happen anyway. It’s only a question of time.”

Japan, which protects the lives and property of its people based on the Japan-U.S. alliance, has no choice but to get along well with the United States, no matter who is in the White House, at least in the current situation.

However, Trump’s re-election could also be a big opportunity for Japan. A second Trump administration will surely provide an opportunity for Tokyo to move away from its servile diplomacy toward the U.S. and move closer to becoming a truly independent country that can protect itself on its own in a time of crisis by enhancing Japan's self-defense capabilities. In a sense, Trump 2.0 may be shock therapy for many peace-addicted Japanese lawmakers who lack crisis management awareness and are currently heavily embroiled in a series of money scandals.

Kishida is scheduled to make a state visit to the United States on April 10. Considering the possibility of Trump’s re-election, how should Japan deal with the Biden administration while ensuring it does not become still more entangled with the United States? Kishida is faced with a difficult task.