3 Things to Watch in the Biden-Kishida Summit

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio will make an official visit to the United States in early April as a state guest. During his six-day trip, he is scheduled to hold talks with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington on April 10. Kishida is also set to address the U.S. Congress on April 11.

The last time a Japanese prime minister addressed a joint session of Congress was in 2015 during the administration of then-President Barack Obama, when the late Abe Shinzo delivered a speech.

There are three points to note about Kishida's state visit to the United States.

First, Kishida’s state visit comes at a challenging time for both leaders, who have low public approval ratings at home. It will be interesting to see whether the summit meeting will contribute to a recovery in their approval ratings, especially for Kishida.

The latest NHK opinion poll conducted on March 11 put the approval rate for Kishida’s Cabinet at 25 percent while the disapproval rate stood at 57 percent. Since July 2023, the percentage of people who do not support the Kishida Cabinet has consistently exceeded the percentage of those who do. Even worse, since December last year, Kishida’s disapproval rating has been more than twice his approval rating.

Kishida’s popularity has been suffering from a financial scandal involving his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in which funds collected by intra-party factions and given to faction members were not recorded in their financial reports, generating off-the-book funds for LDP lawmakers.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Kishida: An internal LDP election is scheduled for September 2024 to elect the next president of the party, who will also be the next prime minister. General elections are also scheduled to be held in Japan by October 30, 2025, as required by the constitution.

Meanwhile, Biden is facing a close-fought November election against Republican Donald Trump. In mid-August of 2021, for the first time, more Americans disapproved than approved of Biden. That hasn’t changed since.

Kishida may desperately need his state visit to Washington to be a success in order to secure his political future by casting himself as a  respected global leader. Biden may need a successful summit to win a public relations victory, casting himself also as a competent and respected leader, ahead of the upcoming election in November.

Second, the summit will highlight the significance of so-called minilateralism, or minilateral groupings such as the Quad (the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and AUKUS (the Australia-U.K.-U.S. security initiative), all of which the Biden administration has facilitated in the face of China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told reporters in Tokyo on March 21 that the upcoming Japan-U.S. summit will discuss technological collaboration between Japan and AUKUS, with cooperation on advanced robotics, cyber initiatives, and some work in anti-submarine warfare in mind.

The United States, Japan, and the Philippines are also planning to hold their first trilateral summit in Washington on April 11 to cope with China's assertiveness in South and East China Seas. Similarly, Biden, Kishida, and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol held a historic summit at Camp David on August 18, 2023, paving new era in trilateral cooperation among the three.

Under the conventional security framework, the United States cooperates with its allies individually: not only with Japan and South Korea, but also with Australia and the Philippines, among other nations. This is called the “hub and spoke” model, likened to the wheels of a bicycle. As Japan moves to strengthen cooperation with the Philippines, Australia, and South Korea, “spoke-to-spoke” links will also be constructed.

The Philippines is also strengthening ties with Japan and Australia, adding another “spoke-to-spoke” layer to this region. All of these will expand the circle of like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

In any case, Japan, the United States, the Philippines, Australia, and South Korea all aim to create a system in which security will not be shaken even if the government changes in any of these countries.

But one must remember that some regional experts have raised alarm over this move toward minilateral groupings. For example, Richard Heydarian, a senior lecturer at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines, wrote for Nikkei Asia on December 1, 2023 that other ASEAN nations, although wary of China's intentions, fear the region becoming a theater of great power conflict if the U.S. expands its military presence.

“[Philippines President] Marcos’ move to grant the U.S. access to a range of Philippine military bases and greater Philippine-U.S. military cooperation more generally are setting off alarm bells,” Heydarian wrote, adding, “In private conversations, some regional scholars and officials derisively suggest that the Philippines is becoming America’s ‘deputy sheriff.’”

Third, Biden and Kishida will try to tout their success in domestic job creation ahead of their crucial elections this year.

Kishida is reportedly considering visiting the state of North Carolina during his visit to the United States. Toyota Motor Corp. is constructing a new battery plant there.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has criticized the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and may win re-election in the presidential election in November, has placed strong emphasis on expanding domestic employment. And so Kishida aims to appeal not only Biden but also to Trump by highlighting the significant contribution to the southeastern state made by Japan's leading company.