Pakistan’s Relations With Afghan Taliban Enter Uncharted Territory

Last month, Pakistan conducted airstrikes on alleged Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Afghanistan, raising concerns about the potential consequences of a further deterioration of relations with the Afghan Taliban.

According to Pakistani officials, Pakistan launched air strikes after an attack planned by Afghanistan-based TTP militants killed at least seven soldiers, including two officers. Pakistan’s Foreign Office described the mid-March strikes as “intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations in the border regions inside Afghanistan” that were directed at a Pakistani Taliban offshoot organization.

Zabihullah Mujahid, an Afghan Taliban spokesman, responded harshly to Pakistan’s actions, stating that “[s]uch incidents can have very bad consequences which will be out of Pakistan’s control.” He said that five women and three children were killed in the airstrikes.

Mujahid went on to say that Pakistan should not hold Afghanistan responsible “for the lack of control, incompetence, and problems in its own territory.”

On March 16, militants killed seven Pakistani soldiers in an attack on a military post in North Waziristan district, bordering Afghanistan. The recently formed Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad claimed responsibility for the attack. According to Pakistan, the group is a wing of the outlawed TTP, which regularly targets Pakistani law enforcement and military personnel.

Pakistani authorities attribute the surge in terrorist attacks in the country to the TTP, which Islamabad asserts gained strength following the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban in 2021. In 2023, Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which shares borders with Afghanistan, recorded a steep rise in terrorism-related violence, with the number of casualties reaching the highest level in six years.

Pakistan has conducted several military operations against the TTP in Afghanistan after the Afghan Taliban took control of the country, but this is the first time that Islamabad has openly claimed to have done so.

The seriousness of Pakistan’s actions is evident in the fact that it not only disclosed the attack’s tactics and objectives and backed it up through a stern foreign office statement, but Pakistan warned the Afghan Taliban that Islamabad would not tolerate any such attacks from Afghanistan anymore.

Pakistan’s patience with the Afghan Taliban has run out, as evidenced by the airstrikes. The military establishment has had enough of its previous strategy of restraint toward the Taliban in Afghanistan. With the number of military casualties mounting, the urge to take action against the TTP outside of Pakistan has increased. Such action also demonstrates that Pakistan has essentially run out of ways to settle the conflict through negotiation and other means, such as financial pressure, to convince the Afghan authorities that backing the TTP is a mistake.

Beyond just hitting TTP leaders, Pakistan’s strikes were also intended to warn Afghan officials that Islamabad would strike inside Afghanistan in the event of the TTP or any of its allies attacking Pakistan again. 

Pakistan’s military strikes mark the beginning of a new phase of escalation.

Moreover, the development indicates that Pakistan is unhappy with the section of the Afghan Taliban’s leadership that is opposed to addressing Islamabad’s TTP-related concerns more directly. In its official statement after the airstrikes, Pakistan sought to divide the Afghan authorities into two groups: “Some elements among those in power in Afghanistan are actively patronizing [the] TTP and using them as a proxy against Pakistan,” the Pakistan Foreign Office statement said. 

The statement suggests that there is another faction within the Afghan Taliban leadership that supports Pakistan’s stance and is opposed to providing sanctuary to the TTP. But it appears that when it comes to defending the TTP at the expense of weakening connections with Pakistan, the hardliners within the Afghan Taliban leadership have prevailed thus far. 

The balance of power among the Afghan Taliban’s ranks might shift as a result of the airstrikes. It remains to be seen, though, if the action will benefit the Afghan Taliban leadership that supports Pakistan. 

One of the reasons Pakistan waited to initiate such a major military action is that it may have preferred the moderate forces within the Afghan Taliban leadership tackle the TTP issue internally. But it looks like the pro-TTP camp has prevailed; therefore, Pakistan will probably continue to use force to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan. 

There is a risk, however, that the recent military action will strengthen the base of support for militant groups that are hostile to Pakistan and support the TTP. In the upcoming weeks, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan may rise, resulting in more border skirmishes and perhaps retaliatory strikes as well.

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has entered uncharted terrain, and it appears that any chance of a meaningful conversation is gone, at least for the foreseeable future.