A Population Problem for Australia’s Populists

Political parties rarely sell the public a consistent set of policies. They deal in narratives and emotions, and tend to target what they believe specific sections of the public are feeling. These feelings can be contradictory, but they often offer the best pathway to votes. Yet political parties are not solely vote-gathering machines; they are also required to be responsible governing organizations, and it is here that their inconsistent approach to policy is most exposed.

For the current opposition Liberal Party, this balancing is additionally fraught as it is working to align itself to a new constituency. Its traditional power base within the country’s wealthiest electorates abandoned the party at the previous election and looks unlikely to return. The Liberal Party is now struggling to reconcile its traditional position with new electoral realities.

Yet as a party that hopes to be in government again one day, the Liberal Party needs to have a keen understanding of not only its electoral fortunes, but how it aligns itself to the country’s broader national imperatives.

Australia’s current national strategy is dominated by two main issues – the challenge to the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific from China, and Australia’s need to compensate for its birth rate, which is below replacement level.

The latter is an issue that affects every element of national capabilities, from the viability of its pension and healthcare systems, to resources dedicated to security, to economic weight and structure, and the country’s diplomatic and cultural reach.

In order to maintain and enhance these elements of national power, Australia has had a strong migration program to offset an otherwise inevitable population decline. This has had support from all major political parties, which recognize it as central to meeting the country’s needs.

While Australia has performed better than most migrant-accepting countries in integration and opportunity for new arrivals, this migration program hasn’t been without its detractors. And critics sense a political opportunity in the migration issue.

The Liberal Party currently finds itself positioned in opposition to the extent of Australia’s migration program – seeking to cut it by 40 percent – while simultaneously claiming that it is the party strongest on national defense. In particular, opposition leader Peter Dutton – as a former minister for defense – has made it clear that Australia needs to be more forceful in its response to China’s behavior in the region.

This is where the inconsistency lies. For Australia to play a more substantial role in defending the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific from China’s revisionism, it needs to enhance its capabilities. As a country of just 27 million people inhabiting a continent-sized landmass, there is a severe capability deficit not just in terms of defending its own way of life from challenge, but also in offering substantive assistance to its partners and friends in the region.

National security is not solely about a capable defense force. It is also reliant on a strong economy, industrial capability, and economic complexity; it is about diplomatic reach, and cultural influence. National security requires responsible governance and a sense of national cohesion. Enhancing all of these features of national power requires people. It is people who are a country’s primary resource.

Australia also finds itself in a precarious position with its major export industries, which lack complexity and resilience in the face of change. It is the world’s second largest exporter of coal and fifth largest export of natural gas, but these are industries that will eventually fall off a cliff due to the transition to renewable energy sources. At present Australia does not have any industries of equal economic weight to replace the hole in national wealth this market shift will create. For this it needs new skills, and the population to develop them.

Despite its current ideological limbo, with its coalition partner the National Party, it is possible that the Liberal Party could return to government in 2025, when the next federal election is due to be held. Such is the lack of popularity of the current Labor Party government, and the state of flux Australian politics finds itself in. This means the Liberal Party will have to think more seriously about the responsibility of governing, rather than just the promoting of easy narratives.

Australia faces a number of serious challenges that it requires a more substantial population to address. The politics of populism may be able to win elections, but it is often far removed from the serious work of addressing the fundamental needs of the country.