Australia’s Liberals Go Nuclear

Energy remains a central issue in Australian politics. The country is a huge exporter of fossil fuels, but also has the requisite conditions to be a major renewables power. Yet part of the problem of any energy transition in Australia is that the regions that are economically reliant on the coal industry in particular are not regions where renewable energy sources are likely to be developed. The energy transition for these regions has the potential to decimate their economic viability.

The opposition Liberal Party believes it has a solution to this dilemma, but one that is deeply contentious and expensive. The party’s plan – should it be elected in next year’s federal election – is to build seven nuclear power stations on sites where coal-fired power stations are forecasted to be decommissioned. The plan is to have two of these nuclear power stations operational by 2035-2037.

The proposal is a bold new intervention in Australian politics, and one that cuts across a number of spheres, not just domestic energy consumption, but also its foreign policy. While the Liberal Party is currently framing the proposal as one tied to Australia’s energy security, and as a way to meet Australia’s emissions targets, the impetus for the nuclear power plants is the AUKUS agreement for the U.S. and U.K. to supply Australia with eight new nuclear-powered submarines.

One of the hurdles of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines is that Australia doesn’t have the nuclear capabilities to service them. Australia currently only has one small nuclear reactor, which is mostly used for research purposes rather than power generation. Its establishment in 2007 provided Australia with some nuclear knowledge, but nowhere near the scale required to operate its future fleet of nuclear-powered submarines without the assistance of technicians from the U.S. and U.K. Developing significant domestic nuclear capabilities would help overcome this problem, although ramping up the number of technicians required within the country within a decade remains a huge task.

While increasing Australia’s nuclear capabilities would assist in maintaining sovereignty over its future nuclear-powered submarines, it also comes with significant diplomatic problems. Due to their experience as testing grounds for both U.S. and French nuclear weapons, Australia’s neighbors in the Pacific are rightly deeply suspicious of all things nuclear. Pacific Island capitals would view this proposal as substituting one threat (fossil fuels) for another (nuclear power).

Although the development of nuclear power generation doesn’t automatically lead to acquiring nuclear weapons, it would significantly increase Australia’s capabilities to do so. In a more destabilized regional environment in the Indo-Pacific, and with a less-reliable Washington, the conditions make nuclear weapons not outside the realm of consideration in Canberra.

However, prior to any regional diplomatic problems that may arise there are also the domestic political concerns. Twenty-five years ago the federal government implemented a ban on nuclear energy as part of the country’s environmental laws. Additionally both New South Wales and Queensland have bans on nuclear energy, which would be constitutionally difficult for the federal government to overturn. Attempting to create an overarching national framework for nuclear energy could be challenged in the country’s High Court were the Liberals able to get the proposal through both houses of Parliament.

Of course, all this relies on the Liberal Party – and its ally the National Party – actually winning the next election. Several of the Liberal Party’s traditional wealthy, highly educated urban seats that they lost at the last federal election are unlikely to be convinced that nuclear energy should be part of Australia’s future. These seats are now highly committed to renewables as not only the best environmental form of energy generation, but also the most cost effective. Without these seats, finding a majority in the House of Representatives will be difficult for the party. And neither of Australia’s major parties will be able to command a majority in the Senate for the foreseeable future.

However, what the Liberal Party has done is focus Australia’s collective mind more clearly on its energy future. If coal and gas will eventually be phased out, but renewables cannot currently provide sufficient baseload power, then a reliable alternative needs to be found. Nuclear power’s emissions-free generation offers an energy prospect that can seem compelling. But the complications it brings may prove far too toxic to become a reality.