Can an Autocratic Modi Become a Team Player?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have returned to power for a third straight term at the helm in New Delhi. However, their performance in the recent general elections was below expectations.

During the election campaign, Modi and the BJP boasted that the party would win over 400 of the 543 seats contested in the general elections on its own. But the BJP secured only 240 seats. While it is the single largest party in Parliament, it is 32 seats short of a simple majority. In the 2019 general election, the BJP had enough seats (303) to form a government on its own. This time around, the support of its partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was necessary for the BJP to form a new government.

Although this was Modi’s third straight win from the Varanasi constituency, his performance was not impressive, as his victory margin was a mere 152,513 votes compared to 479,505 in 2019. Modi’s inauguration of a Ram Temple at Ayodhya, a key BJP campaign plank, fell flat on its face. The party lost five of the nine seats from the Ayodhya region.

Despite leading the BJP to a “historic” third term in government, the results of India’s 18th general election are a humiliating comedown for Modi. His stature in the eyes of voters, his party, and the NDA coalition is much diminished. For the first time in decades, Modi does not seem invincible.

The survival of his government depends on the continuing support of his NDA partners. Running a successful coalition government requires consultation, making concessions, and decision making by consensus. It has prompted Modi’s detractors to claim that the prime minister would, therefore, have to listen to NDA partners and heed their demands. Since Muslims comprise an important support base of two key allies, the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Modi would have to moderate his aggressive anti-Muslim positions, perhaps even abandon key items on the BJP’s Hindutva agenda, analysts said.

However, such expectations may be overly optimistic. Early signs do not bode well.

Ahead of the swearing-in of the new Cabinet, there was much talk about the TDP and the JD(U) demanding key portfolios in return for their support. However, Modi did not give in to their demands. The most powerful portfolios, including home, defense, finance, and external affairs, remain in the hands of the BJP. It refused to field a non-BJP MP for the speaker’s post either. Had it done so, it would have gone a long way to allay the concerns of its allies and the opposition.

Modi, despite his diminished clout, is no pushover.

During his previous two prime ministerial terms, Modi used the central investigative agencies to intimidate opposition politicians into joining the BJP and silence media and other critics of his regime. TDP Chief N. Chandrababu Naidu, for example, was jailed on corruption charges last year. Modi could use this modus operandi again to keep Naidu and other coalition allies in line. He could deploy this tactic to divide the opposition INDIA bloc and draw opposition parties and factions to boost the strength of the ruling coalition.

Analysts are also pointing out that Modi’s style is not conducive to running a coalition government. In an article in Scroll, political analyst Ramachandra Guha argued that unlike his predecessors, who were “wired, both by experience and temperament, to effectively run a government with support from other people and other parties, Modi is not.”

Except in the 1990s, when as an activist of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the BJP’s ideological mentor, Modi would have taken orders while engaging in mobilization and organization of campaigns, marches, and rallies, he has never worked under anyone.

Both as Gujarat chief minister (2001-May 2014) and India’s prime minister (2014 onward), Modi has functioned as the unchallenged supremo of the BJP and the government. Indeed, unlike other BJP leaders, who have consulted, even taken orders from the RSS, Modi has maintained a distance from its leadership over the past two decades.

Modi’s tendency to centralize power and reluctance to consult in the past suggest that the NDA allies will remain junior members of the coalition, not equal partners of the BJP in government.

The recent general election has not only dealt a setback to the BJP and Modi, but also provided a shot in the arm to the INDIA coalition in general and the Congress party in particular. The opposition’s numbers in Parliament have increased, as has their morale. Modi can expect to face a more aggressive opposition both in parliament and outside.

Most importantly, Modi can expect challenges from within. His arrogant and non-consultative style has arguably irked other BJP leaders.

Additionally, relations between Modi and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, which have been strained for years, have worsened of late. In a speech delivered from the RSS headquarters in Nagpur two days after election results were announced, Bhagwat pulled up the Modi government, albeit without naming the prime minister. “Manipur is still burning,” Bhagwat said. “Who is going to pay attention to it? It is a duty to deal with it on priority.”

Even if Modi does not heed his coalition partners or even the opposition, he can be expected to heed the RSS leadership’s “advice” to a greater extent than in the past. Over the past decade, the equation between Modi and the RSS tilted in favor of the former.

Post-election, that may have changed.