A Grand Coalition and a New Era in Mongolia

Mongolia’s old guard from the communist era, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), secured a victory in the 2024 legislative election, marking their third consecutive term. The MPP’s leader, Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai, not only led his party to victory but also brought about crucial changes that could shape the future of Mongolia.

The recent election was a historic milestone for Mongolia’s young democracy, characterized by several firsts.

The 2024 election was the first following constitutional reforms in 2023 that dramatically expanded the parliament from 76 to 126 seats. The June 28 vote reflected a significant shift in the nation’s political landscape. For the first time, there was a substantial increase in the representation of women in parliament, with women now holding 25 percent of the seats. The election also marked the first time that two disabled individuals were elected as MPs, and it saw the historic election of a Kazakh woman to parliament. These changes have resulted in a younger and more diverse group of representatives, signaling a move toward more inclusive governance.

After the elections, the new parliamentarians consolidated into a grand coalition that includes not only the MPP, which topped the tables with 68 seats, but also their opposition, the Democratic Party (42 seats), and the emergent HUN Party (eight seats). This unprecedented alliance resulted in a unified government that brought together two former rivals and a significant third party.

In an unprecedented show of unanimity, 103 out of 104 parliamentarians present voted to have Oyun-Erdene lead the government once again. The lone “no” vote came from former journalist Lodiosambuu Chuluunbileg from the Democratic Party.

The grand coalition may appear to be a strategic effort to foster stability and cooperative governance by incorporating diverse perspectives to tackle Mongolia's socioeconomic challenges. However, critics, particularly from local civil society and urbanite Mongolians, argue that this coalition merely perpetuates the MPP’s uncontested grip on power, potentially pushing the government toward more authoritarian rule without sufficient oversight.

The true impact of this unified Mongolian political government remains uncertain. Will it succeed in promoting healthy discourse, diversity, and good governance while effectively managing Mongolia’s global partnerships amid a complex geopolitical landscape, or will it regress into old patterns, further deepening public disillusionment with politics?

The Election of Ousting the Old and Bringing in the New

On election day, Mongolians voted in 126 parliamentarians, with 78 elected through individual races in multi-member constituencies and 38 chosen through a proportional party list system. The party list voting led to an expansion in representation in Mongolia’s parliament, not only increasing the seats of the HUN party as a rising third force but also welcoming two new parties: the Civil Will-Green Party and the National Coalition.

The MPP secured a slim majority with 68 seats in parliament, marking their third consecutive victory. The Democratic Party (DP) performed better compared to previous elections, securing 42 seats – including one won by Battulga Khaltmaa, who became the first former president of Mongolia to be elected into parliament. The HUN party increased its seat count from one to eight, while the Civil Will-Green Party and the National Coalition each secured four seats.

This relative rejection of the full MPP slate reflects how Mongolians perceive politics on a personal basis rather than supporting political policies. While the MPP demonstrated stability during their eight years of governance, they were also burdened by significant corruption scandals, such as the Small Medium Enterprise Fund misappropriation scandal, development bank loan scandal, education loan scandal and the coal theft scandal, to name a few. Candidates involved in these scandals were either rejected in the latest election or made a comeback despite previous disgrace.

Urban voters I spoke to before the elections expressed a strong desire for new faces in government, hoping for younger and more professional representatives. They sought to turn the page on politicians who have held control for decades and disappointed the public.

The MPP seemed to heed this call, with all of their party list candidates being first-timers to politics, including experts in urban planning, energy, biochemistry, social work, and medicine.

Conversely, the DP’s list included their party leader Gantumur Luvsunnyam, who was implicated in the State Educational Loan Fund scandal, alongside former political incumbents and party loyalists. Mongolians were outraged to discover that some 90 percent of loans from the fund were granted to high-ranking officials and their family members, without any fair competition. The DP’s backing of such figures may have led to their inability to overthrow the ruling party.

The desire for new representation was clear in the election results, with 80 of the elected MPs being newcomers to parliament, and only 18 MPs having served longer than three terms. This trajectory of wanting change from the MPP and the DP has been evident since the 2016 election, especially among affluent urban Mongolians who generally disdain the two dominant parties and seek better representation of their views.

In rural communities and among herders, political views are deeply entrenched due to party promises of benefits, making it difficult to gauge genuine opinions. Political analysts see this entrenchment, often causing disputes among neighbors, family members, and friends, as one of the main reasons why there is no meaningful discourse over political change.

A tragic example of this political fervor occurred in Uvurkhangai province, where a violent incident resulted in the death of a district party head in a clash with a campaigner from the MPP. It was the most violent political crime since the July 2008 riots. The incident may have pushed the district in favor of the Democratic Party, as the MPP gained just two out of the 10 legislative seats on the ballot, despite having well-known candidates.

This year’s election participation was at 69.4 percent. Although that’s a high number compared to other democratic nations, for Mongolia it marked a significant drop from the 2020 legislative election turnout of 73.6 percent. Turnout decreased not only among younger voters aged 18-25 but also among voters aged 25 to 55. The lower voter participation rate could be a sign that the public does not expect meaningful change regardless of who they vote into parliament.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) put out a sweeping report on the election. They stated that while Mongolia’s 2024 general election was generally fair and conducted smoothly, there were notable issues that disproportionately benefited the MPP. Concerns were raised about the brief 17-day campaign period and the ruling party’s strategic legislation increasing salaries and social benefits close to the elections, which provided an undue advantage.

Overcrowded polling stations compromised the secrecy of the vote in some instances. Additionally, the bloated ballots for Mongolia’s multi-member constituencies – intended to enhance regional representation – caused logistical challenges. Some districts had more than 10 legislative seats on their ballots, while others had significantly fewer, even if they had larger populations. This disparity undermined the principle of “one vote, one representation” leading to unequal representation across different regions.

Checks and Consolidation

Historically, Mongolia’s elections have pitted two main parties against each other: the MPP and the DP.

The Democratic Party was founded as a coalition promoting Western ideals and freedom in opposition to the old communist party. The DP won a landslide victory in the 1996 general election, taking the majority. In the 2000 election, the party suffered a catastrophic defeat, losing 49 seats while maintaining just one. However, they were able to restore significant seats in parliament in each election cycle until 2016, allowing them to serve as a proper opposition to the MPP.

Notably, in 2004, the DP gained enough seats to cause an upset, forming the first grand coalition with the MPP, then known as the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party. Even after losing a significant number of seats in 2008, which sparked public outrage and riots, the Democratic Party rebounded in 2012, winning a majority and forming a coalition with Enkhbayar Nambar’s splinter party from the MPP, which retained the old MPP party’s name, and the Civil Will-Green Party. Despite these achievements, the party received another huge public rejection in 2016, winning only nine seats in parliament, and has struggled to regain its footing since then.

Since the devastating loss in 2016, the DP has sought to restore public support, with decidedly mixed results. The party has been plagued by internal conflicts, leadership that is stuck in the past, and involvement in corruption scandals. These scandals included insider trading and disadvantageous agreements with mining behemoth Rio Tinto over the Oyu Tolgoi mines. The MPP renegotiated these agreements to benefit the Mongolian people. Some Democratic Party members elected in 2016 even broke ranks to support the MPP in its efforts to prevent the ouster of then-Prime Minister Khurelsukh Ukhnaa.

When this year’s election campaigning began, the DP’s announcement of their party list and candidates drew criticism both publicly and internally. Some longtime party supporters even threatened to leave the party, and before the elections, two party members publicly called for the removal of the party’s head, Gantumur Luvsunnyam. These disagreements might have marred the party’s image as a viable option to lead the government in the eyes of some voters.

Disillusioned by the DP, some voters wanted politicians who cared not just about free market values but also modern and global ideals – and had a clean hand in the game. Enter the HUN Party.

The HUN Party, initially known as the Labor Party, captured imagination and hope for change among Mongolia’s intelligentsia in 2016, but were unable to run, as they were barred from the campaign by the general election commission for irregularities. In 2020, they capitalized on social media discourse and seemed poised to upset the ruling party, but ultimately only gained one seat. Nonetheless, the HUN Party has vocally claimed a role for itself in pushing for election and constitutional reforms and exposing corruption within the MPP during its eight-year reign.

The HUN Party gained eight seats in parliament this time, an indication that some voters looked to them as possible opposition to the major parties and hoped they could truly push back on the MPP and DP’s misconduct. Thus, some supporters were disheartened when the party ultimately decided to form a grand coalition with the MPP and DP.

After the Consolidation

The consolidation of Mongolia’s three major parties into a grand coalition has alarmed civil society groups, who view it as a continuation of the MPP’s rule with unchecked legislative power.

Civil society has long challenged the MPP’s undemocratic policies. These organizations were instrumental in advocating for the 2019 constitutional amendments that strengthened the government’s power while reducing the president’s authority. Civil society groups also pushed for increasing legislative seats from 76 to 126 (although they initially aimed for a total of 156 seats to ensure broader representation) and secured a 30 percent quota for women representatives in parliament.

Civil society organizations in Mongolia largely rely on foreign donations and grants. One of their primary concerns is the government’s attempt to oversee these foreign funds under the pretext of verifying their legitimacy. This could potentially allow the government to halt funding to organizations they find unfavorable, thereby stifling dissent. Although this policy was initially shelved, there are fears it could resurface from this grand coalition under the guise of a “foreign agent” law.

There have been several high-profile cases where activists and journalists have been labeled as foreign agents and subsequently silenced. For example, in 2022, Munkhbayar Chuluundorj, a Mongolian journalist and human rights defender, was jailed on suspicion of “receiving instructions and funds from a foreign intelligence group.” In 2023, prominent journalist Unurtsetseg Naran was arrested on various criminal charges, including “spreading false information” and contempt of court.

These prosecutions often involve individuals exposing government wrongdoing or criticizing its failure to uphold human rights, particularly concerning people from China’s Inner Mongolia region. The government has not only attempted to pass laws that stifle public criticism, but also made it more difficult to hold officials accountable by withholding more information from the public. In 2017, Mongolia’s legislature passed a law allowing government institutions to mark any information as a classified “state secret” without having to go through parliamentary approval.

As a result, Mongolia’s press freedom ranking dropped from 88th in 2023 to 109th in 2024, according to Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The RSF described the press freedom situation in Mongolia as “difficult,” citing frequent abusive criminal proceedings against journalists under the pretext of defamation and a high concentration of media ownership among economic and political elites. The OSCE, in their election report, also noted the stifling of freedom of speech and media during the elections.

It remains to be seen if this new coalition government will hold itself accountable and potentially roll back draconian measures that undermine civil society and silence the press.

Oyun-Erdene’s Legacy

The newly expanded parliament voted overwhelmingly – over 99 percent in favor – to retain Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai as prime minister. The decision shows that the MPs trust Oyun-Erdene to continue his leadership and maintain stability. In return, Oyun-Erdene’s new cabinet appointments, which include ministerial positions for two members from opposition parties, indicate his intent to foster a cooperative and efficient government while minimizing dissent.

It could be argued that Oyun-Erdene might have planned all of this from the get go – the expansion of parliament and giving more power to his rivals in return for more consolidated government.

This strategic inclusion of opposition members in the governing coalition is particularly astute. The DP has historically dominated local governance in the southern regions, which are crucial for Mongolia’s mineral exports due to their rich deposits of coking coal, copper, gold, and natural gas. By integrating DP members into his cabinet, Oyun-Erdene aims to enhance regional cooperation and streamline mineral export operations.

During his tenure, which began in January 2021, Oyun-Erdene has been instrumental in reviving Mongolia’s economy after the COVID-19 pandemic. His renegotiations with Rio Tinto were pivotal in fast-tracking the commencement of underground mining operations. Additionally, he engaged with young protesters during the 2022 coal theft scandal, demonstrating his commitment to addressing public concerns and maintaining social stability.

Oyun-Erdene’s administration has also been marked by efforts to tackle corruption and enhance governmental transparency. By renegotiating unfavorable deals and exposing long-standing corruption scandals, he has bolstered his reputation as a reformist leader dedicated to ethical governance and economic fairness.

With one of the longest-running governments in Mongolia’s democratic history – and it is set to continue – Oyun-Erdene is positioned to leave a significant legacy. His leadership is likely to be remembered for substantial political reform and modernizing Mongolian politics as we know it. And with a new, super-charged cabinet, he might be positioned to find a way to expand the sovereign wealth fund and give the benefits his government promised before the start of the election. 

However, the enduring impact of his tenure will depend on his ability to follow through with his promises and bring about unprecedented progress – and utilize experts and newfound allies to make it happen.