Is This the Beginning of the End of Sheikh Hasina’s Rule?

What began as student demonstrations for quota reform in government jobs rapidly escalated into a nationwide uprising in Bangladesh last month, blooming into widespread calls for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. This unrest, triggered by the prime minister's casual remarks about protesters being “the families of Razakars [collaborators] during the liberation war,” has plunged Bangladesh into its most severe political crisis in years.

A Supreme Court ruling on July 21 largely met the protesters' demands by ordering a reduction in quotas and the Hasina government issued a circulating stating its agreement. On July 23, protesters agreed that the ruling was in favor of the protesters, but stressed that the government should answer for the bloodshed and deaths involving the protests.

Nearly 200 deaths were reported in just over a week of violence.

Protesters also demanded the banning of the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), the student arm of the ruling Awami League, from all campuses. The BCL, known for its repressive tactics on university campuses, has been humiliated and ejected by students from multiple student halls.

Reports from the ground during the height of the unrest were difficult to verify due to a communications shutdown. Medical sources reported the use of live ammunition against protesters, rather than rubber bullets, highlighting the government's determination to crush the protests through violence.

Unprecedented images and videos showed police helicopters firing on the ground and scenes of widespread violence, prompting the global Bangladeshi diaspora to take action. Diaspora communities staged demonstrations in major cities worldwide, from the UAE to Berlin to New York, calling for Hasina's resignation.

Hasina’s administration has long projected an image of development, stability, and order, maintained through force and intimidation. However, this tight grip on power is weakening.

The government's attempts to regain control through violent attacks on students backfired, spreading the violence each day and spurring moral outrage over the killing of innocent students. More groups with no interest in public service jobs, including madrassa and private university students, joined the protests.

Following the deaths of hundreds of students since July 18, including many from elite urban families, the narrative among the educated elite could also be shifting. Previously indifferent to protests led by the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), this section may change its stance as the full extent of the brutality omes to light.

Hasina's government, which has maintained power through three consecutive elections widely criticized as rigged, now faces a critical juncture. Its unpopularity, long masked by repression and fear, has been starkly exposed. What began as a movement focused on quota reform has evolved into a reflection of deep-seated societal discontent.

The protests appear to have shattered the climate of fear that has long pervaded Bangladesh’s political landscape. Remarkably, Bangladeshis both at home and abroad are now openly calling for Hasina to step down – a demand that would have been unthinkable just a month ago.

The Student Alliance of Bangladesh, an umbrella body of various student associations in universities across Western countries, put forward a five-point list of demands. This included the immediate resignation of Hasina and all members of the Cabinet, as well as the dissolution of the current Parliament.

Social media is awash with memes, slogans, and even songs demanding the prime minister's resignation, demonstrating a sudden and dramatic shift in public sentiment.

This unprecedented outpouring of dissent, ranging from street protests to digital activism, signals a significant erosion of the government's control over public discourse. The rapid spread of anti-government sentiment, even among the diaspora, underscores the depth and breadth of frustration with Hasina’s rule. The movement’s rapid growth and expansion challenges not just specific policies but the very legitimacy of the current administration.

Clashes diminished following the July 21 Supreme Court verdict. And by July 24, the government relaxed the curfew from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. and opened offices and banks from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. while garment factories that export mainly to Western countries also reopened.

But there is a palpable sense that Bangladesh has reached a point of no return. The government's violent response against students and the humiliating ejection of the BCL from university campuses have catalyzed a shift in public consciousness. The country cannot return to its old ways for several reasons.

The first is the fear of reprisal. There's a widespread belief that if the situation normalizes, the government will ruthlessly pursue and punish every protester as it did in 2018, during the first quota reform movement. This fear is driving many to view the current uprising as their last stand.

Second, protesters argue that the issue transcends mere percentages in government jobs. They see it as a struggle to restore equality, freedom, and democracy.

Third, there’s a growing realization that the BNP, the main opposition party, is unable to mount any significant political challenge against this authoritarian regime. This has led many to believe that taking up “the mantle of resistance” is their only recourse.

With 41 percent youth unemployment, rampant corruption and money laundering by Sheikh Hasina's inner circle, and heavy-handed suppression of dissent, Bangladesh was a powder keg ready to explode. Given the country's history of uprisings, it was only a matter of time before a spark ignited the flames of rebellion. That moment now appears to have arrived.

A critical question looms even as the situation appears to stabilize: Will the country see a resurgence of the massive uprising of July 18-19? Can the Hasina government move past the outpouring of dissent and the cries of “autocrat” in the streets of Dhaka?

Bangladesh's carefully constructed narrative of economic progress lies in tatters, undermined by a two-year financial crisis. The situation has been further exacerbated by China's refusal to extend a crucial $5 billion loan, leaving the country struggling to import fuel and maintain its vital garment industry. The looming threat of remittance withdrawals by overseas workers aligning with the resistance fighters adds another layer of uncertainty to the nation's economic situation.

This year's election, boycotted by the BNP, initially appeared to cement Hasina's fear-based grip on power. However, that grip is now visibly loosening as the long-suppressed populace finds its voice. The facade of stability that the government has long maintained is cracking, revealing a deep discontent.

This crisis represents more than just a political upheaval; it is a potential watershed moment in Bangladesh's history. The protests may have calmed for now, but the ultimate outcome of this conflict could reshape the nation's political, economic, and social landscape for years to come, with implications that extend far beyond its borders.