Biden and Kishida Pay the Price of Democratic Leadership

Their personalities and backgrounds may differ considerably, but for both President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, 2024 will be the year that defined their political leadership – and specifically their ability to put the interests of their party over their personal interests. The question for both of course is whether their sacrifice will pay off in the end.

There is little common ground in the circumstances that forced the U.S. and Japanese leaders to make way for new blood. Biden’s decision to cede his position as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee was in response to a tsunami of dissent amongst Democratic-leaning voters nationwide following his lackluster debate against Donald Trump on June 27, exacerbating concerns about the president’s age. Prior to that debate, voices actively opposing Biden’s candidacy for a second term as president had been relatively weak.

In Kishida’s case, on the other hand, speculation had been mounting about him not being able to win the forthcoming Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election for well over a year. The drumbeat for him to make way for another candidate intensified as the LDP continued to flag in local by-elections and most recently, the Tokyo gubernatorial race.

Both Biden and Kishida could point to an impressive list of achievements under their leadership. Biden made considerable headway in expanding healthcare coverage nationwide, while a low unemployment rate has been accompanied by wage growth. Kishida, meanwhile, made significant strides in enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities and deepening the country’s partnerships worldwide, including with neighboring South Korea.

Neither man, however, has been able to translate their considerable successes to boost confidence in their leadership.

There is a significant difference between Biden and Kishida in terms of their inability to win the confidence of their respective party faithful. For Biden, it was ultimately his personal leadership style and shaken confidence in the 81-year-old’s capabilities that led to the swift turning of the tide against his candidacy. Whereas for Kishida, attacks have been less against him personally and more about shaken confidence in his ability to address structural weaknesses in the Japanese economy. Another significant challenge for Kishida has been wariness about the ruling party’s links to the Unification Church following the assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and the murky financial ties of the LDP more broadly.

Another major difference between the United States and Japan is the possibility of significant change under new leadership. In the U.S., the race between Democrats and the Republicans in the November elections is far too close to call, and the visions that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are championing for the United States are strikingly different. A new U.S. president could alter the course of U.S. policy both at home and abroad considerably.

In contrast, the LDP leadership election is expected to be a contest among figures who are not only well-established within the party, but also unlikely to veer away too significantly from the roadmap that Japan has been pursuing in recent years. That would certainly be the case when it comes to foreign policy; the new LDP leader is expected to continue to place the security alliance with the United States at the center of Japan’s military strategy and to boost efforts to partner with the Global South moving forward.

Kishida’s successor may have different priorities when it comes to dealing with domestic issues, most notably the economy, but Japan’s future political trajectory is unlikely to change significantly. What’s more, given the weak and fractured opposition, the LDP is most likely to remain the single biggest party, even though its overall seats in the Diet may decrease come national elections in 2025.

Both Biden and Kishida have swallowed their personal ambitions to step aside in the interest of their respective political parties. As authoritarian rule continues to rise worldwide, the leaders of the United States and Japan have demonstrated through their actions about the power of the popular voice and the strength of democracy. For the two men, there can also be no stronger bond than to acknowledge and respect the hard choice each has made in the name of the greater good.