Can Central Asia Deepen Multilateral Cooperation Without Institutionalization?

In 2024, Astana became a hub for a series of pivotal meetings that each marked as a significant “first” in regional diplomacy. On August 9, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev welcomed the current leaders of the other four Central Asian countries – Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Following the precedent set at the fifth consultative meeting in Dushanbe in September 2023, the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the head of the United Nations Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia, Kaha Imnadze, also attended the gathering in Astana.

The latest consultative meeting produced a joint statement from the Central Asian leaders and led to the signing of a concept for the development of regional cooperation “Central Asia – 2040,”  a roadmap on developing regional cooperation for 2025-2027, and an action plan on developing industrial cooperation among the Central Asian countries for 2025-2027.

Contrary to the Kazakh leadership’s hopes, no breakthrough was achieved in regard to the signing of the Agreement on Friendship, Good-Neighborliness, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century by holdouts Tajikistan and Turkmenistan at the Astana summit. This reluctance remains despite marked progress in the Kyrgyz-Tajik border negotiations in 2024; Tajikistan’s abstention from approving the friendship agreement has been linked to its border issues with Kyrgyzstan.

In the meantime, attempts at deepening regional connectivity appear to demonstrate positive results. For instance, the trade turnover among Central Asian countries has been on the rise since 2018, doubling within the last six years from $5.7 billion to $11 billion. The countries in the region are seeking to link their transport potential and develop energy infrastructure. This was manifested in the first meeting of Central Asian energy ministers and the second meeting of Central Asian transport ministers held on August 6 and 8, respectively, ahead of the sixth consultative summit. These meetings resulted in the conclusion of a joint communique on the results of the first Central Asian energy ministers’ meeting, a memorandum of understanding on developing transport and logistics centers in Central Asian countries, and the Astana communique of the second Central Asian transport ministers’ meeting. The last two documents are seen as a logical continuation of the agreement on strengthening land transport relations in Central Asia signed at the Dushanbe summit in 2023.

While broader multilateral engagements tend to grab headlines, the bilateral relationships in Central Asia are proving to be the true drivers of progress in the region. Through a web of bilateral treaties, Kazakhstan is not just deepening its ties with neighboring states but also laying the groundwork for a more cohesive regional integration. Allied relations have been established with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, while strategic partnerships with Turkmenistan continue to expand.

In this context, the bilateral meeting between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on August 7-8 in Astana, just ahead of the consultative meeting of Central Asian leaders, is particularly telling. The cooperation between these two relatively large regional powers is not merely symbolic but foundational. Without their joint efforts, the vision of a unified Central Asia is unlikely to materialize.

A landmark in this cooperation is the first meeting of the Supreme Interstate Council of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, held on August 8 in Astana. This advanced integration mechanism underscores the leadership roles of these two nations in driving regional integration. Their collaboration is reminiscent of the Franco-German partnership that was instrumental in the unification of Europe. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are poised to serve as the locomotives of a similar regional project.

The rapid pace of interaction between Astana and Tashkent is notable, with 15 meetings between their presidents in the past five years alone. The signing of a Treaty on Allied Relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in December 2022, followed by its ratification in Uzbekistan in 2023 and Kazakhstan in 2024, is a testament to their commitment. Recognizing the cautious stance of other Central Asian states toward integration, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are setting the groundwork for regional unity by establishing the Interstate Council and welcoming the adoption of the Strategic Partnership and Alliance Program for 2024-2034.

On the eve of the summit, Tokayev published an article titled “The Renaissance of Central Asia: Towards Sustainable Development and Prosperity.” The piece encapsulates the essence of the concept for the development of regional cooperation “Central Asia – 2040,” adopted at the summit. It emphasizes key pillars of regional integration: a unified security and defense space, joint economic initiatives, transportation projects, and cooperative approaches to water, energy, and food security. The article also highlights a shared Central Asian identity – an elusive but crucial element in ensuring that this integration process extends beyond political elites to engage broader society.

Mirziyoyev referred to Tokayev’s article in his remarks at the consultative summit as an in-depth analysis of their joint work. He complemented Tokayev’s proposals by suggesting the adoption of common concepts in security and transportation. Given the disruptions in traditional trade and transportation routes caused by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the resulting vulnerability to sanctions, this cooperation is both timely and necessary.

As such, there has been increasing emphasis on the stability and security of transportation in and through the region. In April 2024, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan agreed to organize freight traffic along the China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan route. During their recent meeting, both presidents participated in a ceremony marking the arrival of a container train that traveled nearly 4,500 kilometers in just five days from the Chinese dry port of Xi’an to Tashkent, passing through Kazakhstan. This transportation route offers new prospects for other states in the region.

A significant outcome of these meetings is the establishment of a Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs. This body is tasked with ensuring mutual support within international and regional structures – a critical step in consolidating their bilateral and regional cooperation.

Tokayev’s declaration that a “successful Central Asia means a successful Kazakhstan” reflects an encouraging commitment to deepening regional integration. If this principle gains broader acceptance among other Central Asian nations, it could be the key to the long-term success of a unified Central Asia.