World Leaders Vigorously Compete for ASEAN Partnerships

Most of the male guests who attended a gala party thrown by Laotian Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone on October 10 chose to wear bright white dinner jackets.

This might have been regarded as a risky color, given the many bottles of red wine that were being generously poured by waiters. Glasses clinked as food was served. Diners watched women in elegant costumes dancing to traditional music.

A beaming Siphandone proposed a toast “to peace, stability, and sustainable development in the region.” 

He moved confidently through the room, greeting VIPs, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who cautiously wore a navy blue shirt.

Also on the invitation list was Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Although no one seems to have wanted to party with him in public, Lavrov did manage to secure a brief meeting with senior politicians from the host country, Laos. He did not, however, have an audience with its prime minister. 

This year, Laos holds the rotating chair of the 10-member ASEAN bloc. The leaders of ASEAN member-states gathered for the annual summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, from October 6 to 11. They were joined by other powerful figures who are keen to enhance their ties with the region.

The new Japanese prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, prioritized attendance at the event, despite a busy domestic agenda. Ishiba was just sworn in on October 1 and was preparing for a national election for members of the lower house of the Japanese parliament at the end of October.

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol showed his commitment to the ASEAN states by visiting Singapore and the Philippines, as well as flying to Laos.

China’s Premier Li Qiang arrived in Vientiane hailing his “comrades and brothers” from Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. He assured them that Xi Jinping is building a “great modern socialist country in all respects,” which stands ready to build a shared future with its partners. 

By contrast, European Council President Charles Michel said that liberal democracy and capitalism have forged the world’s largest single market in Europe. This, he said, could be a model for Southeast Asian countries to follow.

Narendra Modi looked deep into the past. The Indian prime minister spoke of journeys made by merchants and monks along ancient trade routes, which spread wealth and religious ideas. Modi brought with him two statues of Buddha, carved by Indian craftsmen, which he presented to the prime minister and president of Laos. Both these men represent the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party and are members of its Politburo.

ASEAN summits have always attracted a large number of world leaders, given the plethora of “ASEAN+1” format meetings held on the sidelines. Last month marked not only the main ASEAN summit but also the 27th ASEAN-China summit, the 27th ASEAN-Japan summit, the 25th ASEAN-Republic of Korea (or South Korea) summit, and the 21st ASEAN-India summit. The East Asia Summit, held on the sidelines of the ASEAN gathering for 19 years now, brings together the ASEAN member states as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, and the United States.

While the outreach from non-ASEAN powers dates back decades, the scramble for closer ties has taken on new salience in an era of increasing great power competition. In that light, two key themes emerge from the high-level interest in ASEAN pageantry. 

The first is that much of the world still regards the Southeast Asian region as the area with the greatest potential to grow economically, bringing benefits to its trading partners. 

Second, Southeast Asia is seen as strategically important. Therefore several countries – especially the United States, Japan, and India – want to deepen their security ties with ASEAN nations.

The summit was billed as being primarily a forum for dialogue between East Asian countries and those in Southeast Asia. However, Modi took a front row seat at the forum, and told his audience that for India, business interests, security, and stability are linked.

India’s Act East policy aims to tap the ASEAN markets, which are seen as young, dynamic, and vibrant. Indian companies have already expanded their presence in sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure.

These partnerships help Southeast Asian countries diversify their supply chains. This could be advantageous in the context of global disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, ASEAN countries, especially Singapore, are major investors in India. 

Modi also emphasized that the Indian Navy protects key sea routes used for global trade. His vision of a secure and thriving trade relationship with Southeast Asia connects with his plan for India to play a greater role in the security of the region, as a counterbalance to China.

China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea was challenged at the conference by the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. He accused China’s Coast Guard of harassment and intimidation. “It is regrettable that the overall situation in the South China Sea remains tense and unchanged,” Marcos said.

Marcos encouraged fellow ASEAN leaders to stand firm. Marcos spoke of his “delight” at strong bilateral relations with Japan when he met Ishiba. He also hailed progress in the relationship between the Philippines, Japan, and the United States.

In return, Ishiba proposed further cooperation “in the midst of an increasingly challenging regional security environment.”

In a message to Laos and the ASEAN region delivered in the form of an editorial published in the Vientiane Times, the Japanese leader emphasized the huge investment made there by his country. He said Japan is well placed to assist with decarbonization efforts, without stifling economic growth. 

Ishiba avoided being drawn into a debate about whether Asia should have its own version of NATO, an idea he had championed before taking office. This is a hot topic for discussion in Japan, given the country’s post-World War II emphasis on pacifism.

Official accounts of the initial meeting between the Japanese prime minister and Li, the Chinese premier, suggest it was a frosty encounter. Li said he hoped that Japan and China could “meet each other halfway and keep the relationship on the right track.”

The conference in Vientiane also enabled Ishiba to hold his first official summit with South Korea’s President Yoon. Japan-South Korea relations have progressed rapidly at the official level, thanks to the efforts of Yoon and Ishiba’s predecessor, Kishida Fumio. However, among the South Korean public there is a sense that Japan has not been willing to accommodate concerns over sensitive historical issues. There is a hope in Seoul that Ishiba will be more accommodating than Kishida and that the Japan-South Korea rapprochement process can move to the next level.

More broadly, Yoon used his three-nation tour of Southeast Asia to encourage countries to safeguard peace, stability, prosperity, and a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.

In a speech in Singapore, Yoon said: “I am sure that each of you here appreciate how valuable it is to have freedom from coercion, freedom from unilateral changes to the status quo, freedom from fake news and disinformation that distort public opinion."

Xi Jinping chose not to attend the Laos meeting. Instead, he remained in Beijing, hosting a rival event at which the red carpet was rolled out for people from around the world who are supportive of the Chinese Communist Party.

It therefore fell to Li Qiang to explain China’s position to the delegates in Vientiane. In the face of criticism of his government, he blamed “external forces” for interfering in regional affairs. 

Li said that China is ready to work with ASEAN countries to develop and share a common market and to generate sustainable growth.

He claimed that the markets of China and ASEAN are expanding and opening up, and said this process supports the “common prosperity” of the region, and the world at large.

Li espoused the benefits of partnering with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, even though some economists have warned that the scheme creates debt problems and undermines the sovereignty of recipient nations.